Latest on Macroeconomics
Video: Balancing Freedom and Responsibility in the Age of AI
When Fragile Insurers Meet Climate Change, Taxpayers End Up on the Hook
Inflated Outlook: Sensitivity to Inflation Negatively Predicts Business Growth
- Date
Bizcast: Professor Joseph Stiglitz and The Road to Freedom
Understanding Trump’s Policies on Trades: Insights on Tariffs, Mexico, Canada, and China
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How Trump’s Second Term Could Reshape Business Strategy: Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and Climate Policy
Are Liquidity Regulations Making Banks Safer—or Riskier?
CBS Faculty Research on Macroeconomics
The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences
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Iacopo Morchio and Christian Moser
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- June 12, 2025
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Journal Article
- Journal
- American Economic Review
Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil, we document a significant gender pay gap, which is largely attributed to women working at lower-paying employers. To interpret this fact, we develop an equilibrium search model with endogenous firm pay, amenities, and hiring. We provide a constructive proof of identification of all model parameters. The estimated model suggests that amenities are important for both men and women, and that compensating differentials account for half of the gender pay gap.
Monetary Policy and Rents
This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on housing rents. We provide comprehensive measures of rent inflation at a micro-geographic scale by constructing a new repeat-rent index. Using our rent index, we estimate the impulse responses of rents to monetary policy shocks by employing local projection methods. We find that monetary tightening increases both real and nominal rents. A 25 basis point increase in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage raises real (nominal) rents by 1.7 (1.4) percent 12-24 months following the monetary policy shock.
A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility
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Marina Halac and Pierre Yared
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- March 18, 2025
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Journal Article
- Journal
- Journal of Political Economy
We propose a political economy mechanism that explains the presence of fiscal regimes punctuated by crisis periods. Our model focuses on the interaction between successive deficit-biased governments subject to independently and identically distributed fiscal shocks. We show that the economy transitions between a fiscally responsible regime and a fiscally irresponsible regime, with transitions occurring during crises when fiscal needs are large. Under fiscal responsibility, governments limit their spending to avoid transitioning to fiscal irresponsibility.
The folly of America’s R&D cuts
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- Date
- March 10, 2025
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Newspaper/Magazine Article
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- Financial Times
Banks’ Motivations for Designating Securities as Held to Maturity
We provide evidence that banks classify fixed-rate debt investment securities as held to maturity (HTM) rather than as available for sale (AFS) when HTM classification provides preferred financial accounting and regulatory capital treatments, not because they have a distinct economically motivated intent and ability to hold the securities to maturity.
Foreign Direct Investment and Development
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Stefania Garetto, Nina Pavcnik, Natalia Ramondo, Vanessa Alviarez, Jingting Fan, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Nicola Limodio, Isabela Manelici, Nicolas Morales, Evangelina Dardati, Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Grace Weishi Gu, Galina Hale, David Hémous, Ralf Martin, Farid Farrokhi, Heitor S. Pellegrina, Pierre-Louis Vézina, Laura Boudreau, and Jose P. Vasquez
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- February 12, 2025
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Journal Article
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- VoxDevLit
Multinational enterprises are at the centre of policy debates in low- and middle-income countries. As some of the most productive and innovative firms in the world, which are at the core of global supply chains, multinational enterprises (MNEs) can accelerate development in the countries hosting them, both directly with their presence, and indirectly through linkages to local economic actors.
VoxDevLit on Foreign Direct Investment
Multinational enterprises are at the centre of policy debates in low- and middle-income countries. As some of the most productive and innovative firms in the world, which are at the core of global supply chains, multinational enterprises (MNEs) can accelerate development in the countries hosting them, both directly with their presence, and indirectly through linkages to local economic actors.
The Data Economy: Tools and Applications
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Isaac Baley and Laura Veldkamp
- Date
- January 14, 2025
- Format
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Book
- Publisher
- Princeton University Press
Data is the new oil. It is the fuel for AI, a firm asset, a strategic advantage, information for prediction, a productivity booster, a privacy concern, a by-product of transactions, and a means of payment. How can we update traditional economic and finance frameworks to include a role for data and use these updated frameworks to measures it economic impact?
The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria*
We propose one route to a more inclusive society. Our context is the prevailing one of high wealth inequality where stockholders alone supply the stochastic discount factor governing the allocation of capital. A large and pervasive pecuniary externality is thus imposed on non-stockholder workers, something we view as antithetical to the notion of an inclusive society.