Macroeconomics

Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. Yet our knowledge of the impacts of climate policy may not be of sufficient quality to justify probabilistic beliefs. In such circumstances, it has been argued that the axioms of expected utility theory may not be the correct standard of rationality. By contrast, several axiomatic frameworks have recently been proposed that account for ambiguous beliefs. In this paper, we apply static and dynamic versions of a smooth ambiguity model to climate mitigation policy.

We decentralize incentive efficient allocations in large adverse selection economies by introducing a Walrasian market for mechanisms, that is, for menus of contracts. Facing a budget constraint, informed individuals choose lotteries over mechanisms, while firms supply (slots at) mechanisms at given prices. An equilibrium requires that firms cannot favorably change, or cut, prices. We show that an equilibrium exists and is incentive efficient.

Building on his expertise in macroeconomic policymaking at the Federal Reserve, Mishkin's Macroeconomics: Policy and Practice text clearly provides a theoretical framework that illustrates the most current and relevant policy debates in the field.

It is important to understand the factors that influence a country’s transition from the production of low-quality to high-quality products since the production of high-quality goods is often viewed as a pre-condition for export success and, ultimately, for economic development. In this paper, we provide the first evidence that countries’ import tariffs affect the rate at which they upgrade the quality of their products. We analyze the effect of import competition on quality upgrading using highly disaggregated export data to the U.S.

This article studies whether the volume and composition of capital flows affect the degree of credit crunch during the 2007–2009 crisis. Using data on 3,823 firms in 24 emerging countries, we find that, on average, the decline in stock prices was more severe for firms that are intrinsically more dependent on external finance for working capital. Interestingly, while the volume of capital flows per se has no significant effect, the composition matters a lot.

Developing countries traditionally experience pass-through of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income countries experience. This is true equally of the determination of prices of imported goods, prices of local competitors' products, and the general CPI. But developing countries in the 1990s experienced a rapid downward trend in the degree of pass-through and speed of adjustment, more so than did high-income countries. As a consequence, slow and incomplete pass-through is no longer exclusively a luxury of industrial countries.

This paper examines what we have learned about monetary policy strategy and considers how we should change our thinking in this regard in the aftermath of the 2007–09 crisis. It starts with a discussion of where the science of monetary policy stood before the crisis and how central banks viewed monetary policy strategy. It then examines how the crisis has changed the thinking of both macro/monetary economists and central bankers. Finally, it looks at what implications this change in thinking has had for monetary policy science and strategy.

Organizational economics has advanced along two parallel tracks, one concerned with motivating agents with diverging objectives, the other — less developed — with coordinating agents under cognitive limits. This survey focuses on the second strand and attempts to bring the two strands together. Organizations are viewed as responses to the cognitive costs faced by their (potential) members.