Macroeconomics

This paper examines what we have learned about monetary policy strategy and considers how we should change our thinking in this regard in the aftermath of the 2007–09 crisis. It starts with a discussion of where the science of monetary policy stood before the crisis and how central banks viewed monetary policy strategy. It then examines how the crisis has changed the thinking of both macro/monetary economists and central bankers. Finally, it looks at what implications this change in thinking has had for monetary policy science and strategy.

It is important to understand the factors that influence a country’s transition from the production of low-quality to high-quality products since the production of high-quality goods is often viewed as a pre-condition for export success and, ultimately, for economic development. In this paper, we provide the first evidence that countries’ import tariffs affect the rate at which they upgrade the quality of their products. We analyze the effect of import competition on quality upgrading using highly disaggregated export data to the U.S.

Organizational economics has advanced along two parallel tracks, one concerned with motivating agents with diverging objectives, the other — less developed — with coordinating agents under cognitive limits. This survey focuses on the second strand and attempts to bring the two strands together. Organizations are viewed as responses to the cognitive costs faced by their (potential) members.

Developing countries traditionally experience pass-through of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income countries experience. This is true equally of the determination of prices of imported goods, prices of local competitors' products, and the general CPI. But developing countries in the 1990s experienced a rapid downward trend in the degree of pass-through and speed of adjustment, more so than did high-income countries. As a consequence, slow and incomplete pass-through is no longer exclusively a luxury of industrial countries.

During 2008 and 2009, the insurance industry experienced unprecedented volatility. The large swings in insurers' market valuations, and the significant role that financial reporting played in the uncertainty surrounding insurance companies during that period, highlight the importance of understanding insurers' financial information and its implications for the risk and value of insurance companies.

Large companies are usually organized into business units, yet some activities are almost always centralized in a company-wide functional unit. We first show that organizations endogenously create an incentive conflict between functional managers (who desire excessive standardization) and business-unit managers (who desire excessive local adaptation). We then study how the allocation of authority and tasks to functional and business-unit managers interacts with this endogenous incentive conflict.

This paper proposes a simple model to study how domestic institutions affect patterns of international capital flows. Inefficient financial system, and poor corporate governance, may be bypassed by two-way capital flows in which domestic savings leave the country in the form of financial capital outflows but domestic investment takes place via inward FDI. While financial globalization always improves the welfare of a developed country with a good financial system, its effect is ambiguous for a developing country with an inefficient financial sector or poor corporate governance.

In the fall of 2008, fifteen of the world's leading economists — representing the broadest spectrum of economic opinion — gathered at New Hampshire's Squam Lake. Their goal: the mapping of a long-term plan for financial regulation reform.