Macroeconomics

This paper outlines a financial statement analysis for use in equity valuation. Standard profitability analysis is incorporated, and extended, and is complemented with an analysis of growth. The perspective is one of forecasting payoffs to equities. So financial statement analysis is presented first as a matter of pro forma analysis of the future, with forecasted ratios viewed as building blocks of forecasts of payoffs. The analysis of current financial statements is then seen as a matter of identifying current ratios as predictors of the future ratios that drive equity payoffs.

Interest in the role of entrepreneurial entry in innovation raises the question of the extent to which tax policy encourages or discourages entry. We find that, while the level of the marginal tax rate has a negative effect in entrepreneurial entry, the progressivity of the tax also discourages entrepreneurship, and significantly so for some groups of households. These effects are principally traceable to the upside' or success' convexity of the household tax schedule.

We perform an econometric analysis of the effect of new drug launches on longevity, using data from the IMS Health Drug Launches database and the WHO Mortality Database.

In earlier work we presented a mathematical exposition of a theory that demonstrated that mass privatization without institutions to limit asset-stripping may not lead to a demand for the rule of law. The present note makes the same argument in terms of simple diagrams. The central idea is that economic actions (to build value or strip assets) and political positions of individuals are interdependent.

Traditional explanations for high rates of indirect trade have focused on the role of specialized agents in processing and distribution. We provide an alternative explanation based on the differential ability to evade tariffs from some trade entrepôts. Using data on exports to mainland China, we find that the fraction of goods that are routed through Hong Kong (rather than sent directly) is positively correlated with the Chinese tariff rates, both in the cross section and in differences, even though there is no legal tax advantage to sending goods via Hong Kong.

The collapse of Long Term Capital Management ("LTCM") in Fall 1998 and the Federal Reserve Bank's subsequent efforts to orchestrate a bailout raise important questions about the structure of the Bankruptcy Code. The Code contains numerous provisions affording special treatment to financial derivatives contracts, the most important of which exempts these contracts from the "automatic stay" and permits counterparties to terminate derivatives contracts with a debtor in bankruptcy and seize underlying collateral.

In fall 1998 the Federal Reserve Bank ("Fed") arranged a bailout of the massive hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), which faced the prospect of immediate liquidation if it filed a petition under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code. The Fed's intervention to aid LTCM calls into question the policy rationale underlying the Bankruptcy COde's special treatment of derivatives. In this paper, we make the following claim: derivatives may deserve special treatment, but not for the reason commonly given.

Globalization has been sold as bringing unprecedented prosperity to the billions of people who have remained mired in poverty for centuries. Yet, globalization faces enormous resistance especially in the Third World. Why so? I argue that globalization today has been oversold.

Agricultural subsidies levied by industrial countries have been a source of contentious debate in multilateral trade negotiations. Developing countries argue that subsidies result in an overproduction of crops which depress prices on the world market. The 1996 and 2002 U.S. Farm Bills decoupled agricultural subsidies from current production, so the subsidies should be minimally trade distorting, but a provision in the 2002 Farm Bill that allowed farmers to update their subsidy base potentially broke this decoupling mechanism.