Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
This paper compares the performance of standard-cost with negotiated transfer pricing under asymmetric information. Negotiated transfer pricing generally achieves higher expected contribution margins, as this method tends to be more efficient in aggregating private information into a single transfer price. Standard-cost transfer pricing confers more bargaining power to the supplier and therefore generates better incentives for this division to undertake specific investments. The opposite holds for buyer investments.
We study the economic consequences of alternative hedge accounting rules in terms of managerial hedging decisions and wealth effects for shareholders. The rules we consider include the "fair-value" and "cash-flow" hedge accounting methods prescribed by the recent SFAS No. 133. We illustrate that the accounting method used influences the manager's hedge decision. We show that under no-hedge accounting, the hedge choice is different from the optimal economic hedge the firm would make under symmetric and public information.
In this paper we develop a residual-income model showing how taxes on dividends affect the relative valuation of retained earnings versus contributed equity, as well as the value of expected future earnings. Tests of predictions from our model for a sample of Compustat firms from 1975-94 suggest that overall firm value, and the relative valuation weights investors assign to retained earnings, contributed equity, and current earnings, all critically depend on dividend taxes.
The paper provides early evidence on the informativeness of commodity price risk measures required by the Securities and Exchange Commission's new market risk disclosure rules (SEC 1997). I use existing disclosures of oil and gas producers (O&G) to obtain proxies for the tabular and sensitivity analysis disclosures required by the new SEC rules. I find that proxies for the tabular and the sensitivity analysis format are significantly associated with O&G firms' stock return sensitivities to oil and gas price movements.
This paper lays out alternative equity valuation models that involve forecasting for finite periods and shows how they are related to each other. It contrasts dividend discounting models, discounted cash flow models, and "residual income" models based on accrual accounting. It shows that some models that are apparently different yield the same valuation. It gives the general form of the terminal value calculation in these models and shows how this calculation serves to correct errors in the model.
Recent research on business investment decisions suggests that real investment in plant and equipment is quite sensitive to changes in the user cost of capital, pointing to the possibility that long-run changes in tax policy may have a significant impact on an economy's capital stock. Indeed, many countries have at times adopted investment tax incentives to stimulate investment. The prevalence of investment incentives suggests that local policy-makers believe these are effective in increasing investment at a reasonable cost in terms of lost revenue.
It is common to apply multipliers to both earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price-earnings multiplier or a price-to-book multiplier typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine them into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that combine the valuations and shows that these weights vary over the difference between earnings and book value, doing so systematically over time.
It is common to apply multipliers to both earnings and book value to calculate approximate equity values. However, applying a price-earnings multiplier or a price-to-book multiplier typically produces two valuations and the analyst is left with the question of how to combine them into one valuation. This paper calculates weights that combine the valuations and shows that these weights vary over the difference between earnings and book value, doing so systematically over time.
Arya, Glover, and Sunder (AGS) contribute to the earnings management literature along two dimenstion. First, they classify existing explanations for earnings manipulation, based on the assumption of the revelation principle that is violated. Second, they introduce a model where allowing a manager to manipulate earnings serves as a commitment device. They show that both the owners and the manager can benefit from earnings management (a Pareto improvement). My discussion first deals with the general phenomenon of earnings management and then with the specifics of the AGS model.
The effects of tax reform on corporate financial decisions help determine whether reform will increase capital formation and simplify the tax system. This paper describes the effects of fundamental tax reform on corporate tax planning and summarizes economists' knowledge of the magnitude of these effects. We analyze both income tax reform, consisting of integrating the corporate and personal income taxes, and moving to a broad-based consumption tax. As prototypes of reform, we use the U.S.
Studies the responsiveness of manager clients to opinions made by auditors based on their qualifications through an equilibrium model. Discussion on the two-period equilibrium model; Propositions on high report of auditors; Related studies on audit opinions and market opinion.
As a tax base, 'consumption' is sometimes argued to be less fair than 'income' because the benefits of not taxing capital income accrue to high-income households. We argue that, despite the common perception that consumption taxation eliminates all taxes on capital income, consumption and income taxes actually treat similarly much of what is commonly called capital income. Indeed, relative to an income tax, a consumption tax exempts only the tax on the opportunity cost of capital. In contrast to a pure income tax, a consumption tax replaces capital depreciation with capital expensing.
The article develops a theoretical framework that explains firms' reactions to accounting standards developed by the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board under its extended adoption policy. The proposed theory highlights the differences between recognized and disclosed accounting information and provides a link between a firm's choice of whether to recognize or disclose information under new accounting standards, and stock price behavior around the adoption announcement.
This study investigates the timing and method of adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards(SFAS) No. 106: Employers' Accounting for Post-Retirement Benefits Other Than Pensions (FASB [1990]). Our study is motivated by the Financial Accounting Standard Board's (FASB) policy of extending the adoption period of new accounting standards beyond one fiscal year. Specifically, during 1991 and 1992, firms could adopt SFAS No. 106, disclose the expected impact of adoption, or delay adoption/disclosure until fiscal 1993.
The paper demonstrates empirically that GAAP earnings have properties to serve as a substitute for dividends in equity valuation analysis. Dividends reduce subsequent GAAP earnings, and "intrinsic" equity prices calculated by forecasting earnings are thus reduced by current dividends. This is in accordance with the Miller and Modigliani principle—the displacement property—which states that the payment of dividends reduces prices, dollar for dollar.
In this paper, we critically examine the recommended practice of matching currency footprints. We argue that while matching currency footprints reduces profit variability, this practice can also cause reductions in expected profitability, a point that appears to have been overlooked in current literature. The expected profit effects of matching depend on the trade-off between possible expected cost savings of sourcing abroad verses the loss of what we refer to as "strategic flexibility" in responding to competitors' pricing and quantity decisions.
A study was conducted to interpret the price-earnings ratio (P/E) and the market-to-book ratio (P/B) and describe their articulation. It also aimed to explain the role of book rate-of-return on equity in determining the ratios and the relation between them. The P/E ratio signifies future growth in earnings positively related to expected future return on equity and negatively related to current return on equity. On the other hand, the P/B ratio indicates only expected future return on equity.
To explore if, when, and how intentionally corporate officers conceal negative organizational outcomes from shareholders, we used computer-assisted content analysis of over 1,000 president's letters contained in annual reports to shareholders. Results suggest that outside directors, large institutional investors, and accountants limit such concealment, but small institutional investors and outside directors who are shareholders prompt it. Low disclosure is associated with subsequent selling of stock by top officers and outside directors.
The objective of governments is to efficiently provide essential services and infrastructure to their jurisdictions at a competitive tax rate within the constraint of a balanced budget. In recent years, several states have found it difficult to maintain this standard. This article examines the nature of the problem in the overlapping jurisdictions of New York City and New York State. Specifically, it explains the nature of projected budget gaps that have emerged in New York, and describes how the two New Yorks' political leaders have managed their budgets in recent years.
We examine associations between accounting measures of earnings and stock returns in Japan over varying window lengths and compare them to those for the United States. Our results are consistent with the view that Japanese investors utilize less accounting information in their pricing of equities than do their U.S. counterparts. This was particularly evident in the 'boom' period of the mid to late 1980s when the fundamental values conveyed by accounting measures appear to have been largely ignored.
This note considers a principal–multi-agent model of a firm subject to adverse selection. With just the usual optimal (incentive-constrained) contracts being offered, there exist multiple (Bayes–Nash) equilibria in the agents' subgame. Moreover, from the agents' perspective, there exists an equilibrium that Pareto-dominates the equilibrium desired by the principal. By exploiting the structure of the model, this note develops a new approach for eliminating unwanted equilibria (while retaining the desired equilibrium).
This article examines the tax-compliance game between taxpayers, a tax-collecting agency, and third-party tax-return prepares. In our model, taxpayers are uncertain about their taxable income and may hire tax practitioners to reduce tax uncertainty. We examine the viability of tax practitioners as a signaling device (taking into account the effects on the behavior of the tax-collecting agency) and investigate the desirability of encouraging (or discouraging) the use of tax practitioners via the use of alternative tax-crediting rules.
In this study we compare the value relevance of accounting measures for U.S. and German firms matched on industry and firm size, and evaluate the incremental informativeness of earnings adjusted on the basis of a formula proposed by analysts.
Firms registered outside the United States and listed on a primary U.S. exchange may provide their U.S. shareholders with financial statements prepared under their domestic (non-U.S.) generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The Securities and Exchange Commission requires such firms to reconcile their reported earnings and shareholders' equity to U.S. GAAP as part of a Form 20-F filing. These reconciliations provide a set of precise measures of the differences created by alternative accounting practices.
Price deviations from basic valuation models based on accounting earnings and book value of owners' equity are used to test the intrinsic value explanation of the price-earnings and price-book value anomalies. Relative price deviations from the implied benchmark prices are used to assign years into high and low deviation groups. Traditional zero investment hedge portfolios are formed in each year, and the returns are compared across high and low deviation years.
The paper analyzes the contemporaneous association between market returns and earnings for long return intervals. The research design exploits two fundamental accounting attributes: (i) earnings aggregate over periods, and (ii) expanding the interval over which earnings are determined, is likely to reduce "measurement errors" in (aggregate) earnings. These concepts lead to the level of (aggregate) earnings as a natural earnings variable for explaining security returns.
This article explores the differential measurement problems related to the earnings components by invoking the standard errors-in-variables perspective on estimated coefficients. A more traditional way of looking at accounting recognizes the process as one of measurements. That is, the analysis of transactions leads to line items in the financial statements, which in turn aggregate into the bottom line numbers: earnings and book value. The disclosures of the line items clearly suggest that the accountant is aware of the insufficiency of earnings and book values as determinants of values.
This article outlines research developments that reconcile both fundamental analysis and accounting measurement to the modern theory of valuation. Three features of accounting suggest it may play a role. First, it has the nominal attributes of a value measurement system. The financial accounting process is focused on tracking the book value of equity or net worth. The final entry in the periodic accounting cycle is the close to book values.
This article evaluates the role of rate of return (ROE) in assessing cross-sectional differences in prices and price changes of ROE. Accounting ROE is traditionally regarded as the major summary number in financial statement analysis. Findings of the study indicate that ROE is best interpreted as a profitability measure and not as a risk measure and observed ROE indicates future profitability and thus distinguishes market-to-book ratios. The comparison of earnings to book values in the ROE calculation provides information about how earnings project to future earnings.
Japan's capital markets have played a crucial role in the recent increase in the globalization of international capital markets. As a result it has become important to understand the similarities and differences in the way Japanese markets operate in comparison to the more familiar Anglo-American environment. One of the major differences that has attracted a great deal of attention is the relatively high average price/earnings [PE] ratio (Viner [1988]) for the stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
In this paper we investigate whether the level of earnings divided by price at the beginning of the stock return period is relevant for evaluating earnings/returns associations. The primary model motivating this research relies on the idea that book value (owners' equity) and market value are both "stock" variables indicating the wealth of the firm's equity holders. The related "flow" variables (after adjusting for dividends) are, respectively, earnings divided by price at the beginning of the return period (A/P-1) and market returns.
This article provides confirmatory evidence of the value-relevance of book values of oil and gas properties. Harris and Ohlson (1987) find that the book values correlate significantly with the inferred market values of oil and gas properties. Reserve recognition accounting requires the simultaneous publication of alternative measures that are often assumed to be more relevant values of the oil and gas properties.
The issue of providing segment disclosures has renewed significance because the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) has been considering the extension of segment disclosures, both line-of-business (LOB) and geographically segmented (GEOG), to all interim financial statements. To determine whether GEOG data provide incremental information about the earnings process, the specific contribution of sales and income GEOG data was evaluated by estimating their predictive ability. Two sets of GEOG predictions were used in the predictive accuracy tests.
In this study we consider managerial earnings forecasts as voluntary information releases and compare their properties with predictions from a screening or signaling scenario.
This paper performs a financial statement analysis that combines a large set of financial statement items into one summary measure which indicates the direction of one-year-ahead earnings changes. Positions are taken in stocks on the basis of this measure during the period 1973–1983, which involve canceling long and short positions with zero net investment. The two-year holding-period return to the long and short positions is in the order of 12.5%. After adjustment for "size effects" the return is about 7.0%. These returns cannot be explained by nominated firm risk characteristics.
We examine two measures of monthly manufacturing production. The first is the index of industrial production; the second is constructed from the accounting identity that output equals sales plus the change in inventories. We show that the means, variances, and serial correlation coefficients of the log growth rates differ substantially between the two series, and the cross-correlations are in most cases less than 0.4.
This paper utilizes the concept of aggregative consistency defined in Rubinstein and Fishburn [1986], and the FASB's concept of representational faithfulness to evaluate foreign currency translation and accounting for changing prices as embodied in SFAS 70. The paper shows that SFAS 70 produces measurement errors and creates a foreign currency translation adjustment which does not reflect the effects of exchange rate changes. The conditions defined in the paper also facilitate an evaluation of the relative merits of restate/translate and translate/restate.
In this paper we show that information in prices that leads (future) earnings is contained in financial statements. While accrual accounting rules produce an earnings number which reflects the information in stock prices with a lag, they also produce a large array of additional numbers presented in the income statement, balance sheet, and statement of changes in financial position. We demonstrate that certain of these numbers can be summarized into one measure that predicts future earnings.
The bid-ask spread can be decomposed into two parts: one part due to asymmetric information and the other part due to other factors such as monopoly power. The part due to asymmetric information attenuates statistical biases in mean return, variance, and serial covariance. Thus, using spread data to adjust for biases in return moments requires knowing not only the spread but the composition of the spread. Furthermore, any spread-estimation procedure using transaction prices must estimate two spread components.
Over the past 55 years returns on stock market indexes have on average been higher during the first half-month of calendar quarters 2 through 4 than at other times. Coincidentally, aggregate corporate earnings news arriving at the market during these half-month periods tends to be good, whereas earnings reports arriving later are more likely to convey bad news. In addition firms tend to publish bad-news earnings reports on Mondays, coincident with negative Monday effects in stock returns.
This paper examines Ricardian equivalence in a world in which taxes are not lump sum, but are levied on risky labor income. It shows that the marginal propensity to consume out of a tax cut, coupled with a future income tax increase, can be substantial under plausible assumptions. Indeed, the MPC out of a tax cut can be closer to the Keynesian value that ignores the future tax liabilities than to the Ricardian value that treats future taxes as if they were lump sum.
This paper analyzes the empirical behavior of stock-return volatilities prior to and subsequent to the ex-dates of stock splits. The evidence demonstrates rather unambiguously that there is, on the average, an approximately 30% "arbitrary" increase in the return standard deviations following the ex-date. The increase holds for both daily and weekly data, and it is not temporary. No explanatory confounding variables, such as institutional frictions affecting price observations, have been identified.
In this paper, insider trading is viewed as a signal of managements' assessments of firms' future prospects and its information content is compared to that in managements' earnings forecasts. These forecasts are explicit statements of managements' assessments of future prospects. A number of measures of insider trading designed to capture the information aspect of trading are investigated.
This paper relates New York City's experience since 1975, a period characterized by local economic and fiscal crisis and a gradual recovery from it, to four prevailing themes in the contemporary literature of cities and public administration.
This paper adds to recent evidence on market inefficiency in processing information in earnings reports. It documents that short positions taken in sample stocks which did not report earnings by the date expected during the sample period, 1971–1976, would have been abnormally profitable, before transaction costs. This is because late reports, on average, revealed bad news which was not anticipated in market prices prior to the report date.
In this paper we examine the effect of filing form 10-K on EDGAR on the incidence of small and large trades.
This paper compares the properties of dividend announcements and management earnings forecasts as predictors of earnings and firm value. First, the two predictors are compared on the basis of their ability to predict earnings. Then the information they convey about firm value is assessed by comparison of the performance of investment strategies based on values of the two predictors. Finally, the effects of dividend announcements on stock prices are considered.
Evidence is given in this paper which indicates that corporate insiders time their trades in their firms' stock relative to the date of the disclosure of their forecasts of annual earnings. Further, insiders earn abnormal returns to their joint trading and information dissemination activities, and the paper provides measures of these returns.