Leaders in Social Movements: Evidence from Unions in Myanmar
Social movements are catalysts for crucial institutional changes. To succeed, they must coordinate members’ views (consensus building) and actions (mobilization). We study union leaders within Myanmar’s burgeoning labor movement. Union leaders are positively selected on both ability and personality traits that enable them to influence others, yet they earn lower wages. In group discussions about workers’ views on an upcoming national minimum wage negotiation, randomly embedded leaders build consensus around the union’s preferred policy.
The New Psychology of Secrecy
Nearly everyone keeps secrets, but only recently have we begun to learn about the secrets people keep in their everyday lives and the experiences people have with their secrets. Early experimental research into secrecy sought to create secrecy situations in the laboratory, but in trying to observe secrecy in real time, these studies conflated secrecy with the act of concealment. In contrast, a new psychology of secrecy recognizes that secrecy is far more than biting our tongues and dodging others’ questions.
Sincere solidarity or performative pretense? Evaluations of organizational allyship
Although organizations increasingly seek to communicate allyship with the Black community, their ally statements can receive vastly different responses from Black observers. We develop and test a theoretical model outlining key drivers of allyship evaluations among these perceivers. Drawing from signaling theory and integrating insights from the literature on identity safety, we reveal the costliness and consistency of ally statements as critical determinants of Black perceivers’ evaluations of organizations as allies.
Work engagement and burnout in anticipation of physically returning to work: The interactive effect of imminence of return and self-affirmation
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, many employees have spent a considerable amount of time being forced to work from home (WFH). We draw on the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model and self-affirmation theory to study how the anticipation of returning to the physical workplace affects work engagement and burnout. We assumed that employees are conflicted about returning to work (RTW). Whereas they may look forward to RTW they also appreciate aspects of WFH which would have to be foregone.
You versus we: How pronoun use shapes perceptions of receptiveness
In response to increasing societal divisions, an extensive literature has emerged examining the construct of receptiveness. This literature suggests that signaling receptiveness to others confers a variety of interpersonal benefits, such as increased persuasiveness. How do people signal their receptiveness to others? The current research investigates whether one of the most fundamental aspects of language—pronoun use—could shape perceptions of receptiveness.
Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits
We propose a theory of banking in which banks cannot perfectly control deposit flows. Facing uninsurable loan and deposit shocks, banks dynamically manage lending, wholesale funding, deposits, and equity. Deposits create value by lowering funding costs. However, when the bank is undercapitalized and at risk of breaching leverage requirements, the marginal value of deposits can turn negative as deposit inflows, by raising leverage, increase the likelihood of costly equity issuance.
Market Consequences of Sovereign Accounting Errors
This paper investigates the market consequences of sovereign accounting errors. Eurostat, a division of the European Commission, issues semiannual assessments of financial reports produced by the member states of the European Union (EU), and issues reservations that detail financial reporting errors when they have doubts on the quality of sovereign financial reporting.
Managing with Style? Micro-Evidence on the Allocation of Managerial Attention
Diversity initiatives in the US workplace: A brief history, their intended and unintended consequences
Diversity initiatives are designed to help workers from disadvantaged backgrounds achieve equitable opportunities and outcomes in organizations. However, these programs are often ineffective. To better understand less-than-desired outcomes and the shifting diversity landscape, we synthesize literature on how corporate affirmative action programs became diversity initiatives and current literature on their effectiveness. We focus specifically on work dealing with mechanisms that make diversity initiatives effective as well as their unintended consequences.
“Invisible” Discrimination: Divergent Outcomes for the Nonprototypicality of Black Women
By integrating the intersectional invisibility hypothesis with the behaviors from intergroup affect and stereotypes map framework, we examine the extent to which Black women’s dual-subordinated identities render them nonprototypical victims of discrimination, relative to White women and Black men, and the corresponding consequences.
Currency Factors
We examine the ability of existing and new factor models to explain the comovements of G10-currency changes. Extant currency factors include the carry, volatility, value, and momentum factors. Using a new clustering technique, we find a clear two-block structure in currency comovements with the first block containing mostly the dollar currencies, and the other the European currencies.
NLP for SDGs: Measuring Corporate Alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals
This article uses advanced natural language processing (NLP) methods to identify companies that are aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) based on the text in their sustainability disclosures. Using the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reports of Russell 1000 companies between 2010–2019, we apply a logistic classifier, support vector machines (SVM), and a fully-connected neural network to predict alignment with the SDGs.
Congruence Between Leadership Gender and Organizational Claims Affects the Gender Composition of the Applicant Pool: Field Experimental Evidence
The extent to which men and women sort into different jobs and organizations—namely, gender differences in supply-side labor market processes—is a key determinant of workplace gender composition. This study draws on theories of congruence to uncover a unique organization-level driver of gender differences in job seekers’ behavior. We first argue and show that congruence between leadership gender and organizational claims is a key mechanism that drives job seekers’ interest.
Organizations with Power-Hungry Agents
We analyze a model of hierarchies in organizations in which neither decisions nor the delegation of decisions is contractible and in which power-hungry agents derive a private benefit from making decisions. Two distinct agency problems arise and interact: subordinates make more biased decisions (which favors adding more hierarchical layers), but uninformed superiors may fail to delegate (which favors removing layers). A designer may remove intermediate layers of the hierarchy (eliminate middle managers) or flatten an organization by removing top layers (eliminate top managers).
Coordination and Organization Design: Theory and Micro-evidence
We explore the relationship between the volatility of a firm's local environment and its organizational structure. Using micro-level data on managers working for a large retailer, we empirically test and provide support for our theory that a more volatile local environment results in more decentralization only when the need for coordination among sub-units is low. In contrast, more local volatility is associated with more centralization when coordination needs are high.
Organizational Capital, Corporate Leadership, and Firm Dynamics
We argue that economists have studied the role of management from three perspectives: contingency theory (CT), an organization-centric empirical approach (OC), and a leader-centric empirical approach (LC). To reconcile these three perspectives, we augment a standard dynamic firm model with organizational capital, an intangible, slow-moving, productive asset that can be produced only with the direct input of the firm’s leadership and that is subject to an agency problem.
Differences in Consumer-Benefiting Misconduct by Nonprofit, For-profit, and Public Organizations
We examine how organizations of different types --public, non-profit and for-profit -- engage in consumer-benefiting misconduct (CBM) by examining which patients benefit from hospitals of the three types gaming the market for liver transplants. Consistent with our theory, we find that public firms are the least likely of the three organization types to engage in CBM.
Debt Relief and Slow Recovery: A Decade after Lehman
We follow a representative panel of millions of consumers in the U.S. from 2007 to 2017 and document several facts on the long-term effects of the Great Recession. There were about six million foreclosures in the ten-year period after Lehman's collapse. Owners of multiple homes accounted for 25% of these foreclosures, while comprising only 13% of the market. Foreclosures displaced homeowners, with most of them moving at least once. Only a quarter of foreclosed households regained homeownership, taking an average four years to do so.
Optimal Team Composition: Diversity to Foster Implicit Team Incentives
We study optimal team design. In our model, a principal assigns either heterogeneous agents to a team (a diverse team) or homogenous agents to a team (a specialized team) to perform repeated team production. We assume that specialized teams exhibit a productive substitutability (e.g., interchangeable efforts with decreasing returns to total effort), whereas diverse teams exhibit a productive complementarity (e.g., cross-functional teams).
Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
We extract aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks for the US economy from macroeconomic data on inflation, real GDP growth, core inflation and the unemployment gap. We first use unconditional non-Gaussian features in the data to achieve identification of these structural shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. We find that recessions in the 1970s and 1980s are better characterized as driven by supply shocks while later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks. The Great Recession exhibited large negative shocks to both demand and supply.
Is 9-to-5 over? Maybe it should be.
The Covid-19 pandemic crisis is ongoing, and it its wake has brought tremendous loss of life and economic loss, disruption and uncertainty. It has simultaneously brought to the surface important challenges about global healthcare systems, political systems and institutions and their response to the multi-faceted crisis, the connectedness and dependencies of modern economies through global supply chains, and issues of inequity, as manifested in segments of the population that have been most affected in terms of health and economic outcomes through the crisis.
Getting Gig Workers to Do More by Doing Good: Field Experimental Evidence from Online Platform Labor Marketplaces
This article describes randomized field experiments implemented on two online labor market platforms examining the effect of employer charitable giving on a source of human capital that is becoming increasingly important to firms: the gig worker. It provides support that a message about charitable giving increases gig workers' willingness to complete extra work, and that pro-socially oriented gig workers are most responsive.
Learning about competitors: Evidence from SME lending
We study how small and medium enterprise (SME) lenders react to information about their competitors’ contracting decisions. To isolate this learning from lenders’ common reactions to unobserved shocks to fundamentals, we exploit the staggered entry of lenders into an information-sharing platform. Upon entering, lenders adjust their contract terms toward what others offer. This reaction is mediated by the distribution of market shares: lenders with higher shares or that operate in concentrated markets react less.
The Demotivating Effects of Communicating a Social-Political Stance: Field Experimental Evidence from an Online Labor Market Platform
Despite a recent surge in corporate activism, with firm leaders communicating about social-political issues unrelated to their core businesses, we know little about its strategic implications. This paper examines the effect of an employer communicating a stance about a social-political issue on employee motivation, using a two-phase, pre-registered field experiment in an online labor market platform. Results demonstrate an asymmetric treatment effect of taking a stance depending on whether the employee agrees or disagrees with that stance.
A Deep Learning Approach to Estimating Fill Probabilities in a Limit Order Book.
Deciding between the use of market orders and limit orders is an important question in practical optimal trading problems. A key ingredient in making this decision is understanding the uncertainty of the execution of a limit order, that is, the fill probability or the probability that an order will be executed within a certain time horizon. Equivalently, one can estimate the distribution of the time-to-fill. We propose a data-driven approach based on a recurrent neural network to estimate the distribution of time-to-fill for a limit order conditional on the current market conditions.
Managerial Style and Attention
Is firm behavior mainly driven by its environment or rather by the characteristics of its managers? We develop a cognitive theory of manager fixed effects, where the allocation of managerial attention determines firm behavior. We show that in complex environments, the endogenous allocation of attention exacerbates manager fixed effects. Small differences in managerial expertise then may result in dramatically different firm behavior, as managers devote scarce attention in a way which amplifies initial differences.
The Influence of Pensions on Labor Supply
We cast new light on the influence of pensions on labor supply. To do so, we compare the retention patterns of pension-eligible workers to those of pension-ineligible ones, allowing us to non-parametrically identify the counterfactual in large, administrative data. Pensions exert a retentive force as workers approach the eligibility threshold and apply strong expulsive pressure thereafter (since employees lose pension wealth by remaining employed once eligible).
The future of women in psychological science
There has been extensive discussion about gender gaps in representation and career advancement in the sciences. However, psychological science itself has yet to be the focus of discussion or systematic review, despite our field’s investment in questions of equity, status, well-being, gender bias, and gender disparities. In the present article, we consider 10 topics relevant for women’s career advancement in psychological science.
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of Covid-19: A Real-time Analysis
We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After verifying that our results for US post-war business cycle fluctuations are largely in line with the prevailing consensus, we proceed to study output and price fluctuations during COVID-19. We attribute two thirds of the decline in 2020:Q1 GDP to a negative shock to aggregate demand.
Power leads to action because it releases the psychological brakes on action
Why does power lead to action? Theories of power suggest it leads to action because it presses the psychological gas pedal. A review of two decades of research finds, instead, that power releases the psychological brakes on action. Power releases the psychological brakes on action by making failure seem less probable and feel less painful, thereby decreasing the downside risks of action. Power releases the psychological brakes on action by shrouding the feelings and thoughts of others, thereby diminishing the perceived social costs of action.
Should Hospitals Keep Their Patients Longer? The Role of Inpatient Care in Reducing Post-Discharge Mortality
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the National Quality Forum have endorsed the 30-day mortality rate as an important indicator of hospital quality. Concerns have been raised, however, as to whether post-discharge mortality rates are reasonable measures of hospital quality as they consider the frequency of an event that occurs after a patient is discharged and no longer under the watch and care of hospital staff. Estimating the causal effect of length-of-stay (LOS) on post-discharge mortality from retrospective data introduces a number of econometric challenges.
Do Workers Comply with Salary History Bans? A Survey on Voluntary Disclosure, Adverse Selection, and Unraveling
Salary history bans forbid employers from asking job candidates to disclose their salaries. However, applicants can still volunteer this information. Our theoretical model predicts the effect of these laws varies by how workers comply. Our survey of Americans in the labor force finds candidates fall into three compliance types: 25% always disclose their salary whether asked or not, 17% never disclose, and 58% comply with the ban (disclosing only when asked). Importantly, compliance type varies by demographics (e.g.
The Managerial Effects of Algorithmic Fairness Activism
How do ethical arguments affect AI adoption in business? We randomly expose business decision-makers to arguments used in AI fairness activism. Arguments emphasizing the inescapability of algorithmic bias lead managers to abandon AI for manual review by humans and report greater expectations about lawsuits and negative PR. These effects persist even when AI lowers gender and racial disparities, and when engineering investments to address AI fairness are feasible. Emphasis on status quo comparisons yields opposite effects.
Optimizing stress: An integrated intervention for regulating stress responses
The dominant cultural valuation of stress is that it is “bad for me.” This valuation leads to regulatory goals of reducing or avoiding stress. In this article, we propose an alternative approach—stress optimization—which integrates theory and research on stress mindset (e.g., Crum, Salovey, & Achor, 2013) and stress reappraisal (e.g., Jamieson, Mendes, Blackstock, & Schmader, 2010) interventions. We further integrate these theories with the extended process model of emotion regulation (Gross, 2015).
Team Incentives and Bonus Floors in Relational Contracts
Teamwork and team incentives are increasingly prevalent in modern organizations. Performance measures used to evaluate individuals' contributions to teamwork are often non-verifiable. We study a principal-multi-agent model of relational (self-enforcing) contracts in which the optimal contract resembles a bonus pool. It specifies a minimum joint bonus floor the principal is required to pay out to the agents, and gives the principal discretion to use non-verifiable performance measures to both increase the size of the pool and to allocate the pool to the agents.
The Financial Benefits of Persistently High Forward Citations
We explored the balance between societal benefits that negatively affect firms' financial performance by eroding their competitive advantage and positive effects that enhanced their reputations as technological leaders to study the effects of forward citations upon firms' financial performance.
Gender in the Labor Market: The Role of Equal Opportunity and Family-Friendly Policies
Although the gender wage gap in the U.S. has narrowed, women's career trajectories diverge from men's after the birth of children, suggesting a potential role for family-friendly policies. We provide new evidence on employer provision of these policies. Using the American Time Use Survey, we find that women are less likely than men to have access to any employer-provided paid leave and this differential is entirely explained by part-time status. Using the NLSY97, we find that young women are more likely to have access to specifically designated paid parental leave, even in part-time jobs.
Economic Consequences of the AOCI Filter Removal for Advanced Approaches Banks
We examine economic consequences of US bank regulators' phased removal of the prudential filter for accumulated other comprehensive income for advanced approaches banks beginning on January 1, 2014. The primary effect of the AOCI filter is to exclude unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities from banks' regulatory capital.
Investment under Uncertainty and the Value of Real and Financial Flexibility
We develop a model of investment timing under uncertainty for a financially constrained firm. Facing external financing costs, the firm prefers to fund its investment through internal funds, so that the firm's optimal investment policy and value depend on both its earnings fundamentals and liquidity holdings. We show that financial constraints significantly alter the standard real options results, with the financial flexibility conferred by internal funds acting as a complement, and at times as a substitute, to the real flexibility given by the optimal timing of investment.
Data and the Aggregate Economy
Over the past decade, data has transformed everyday life. While it has changed the way people shop and businesses operate (Goldfarb and Tucker, 2019), it has only just begun to permeate economists thinking about the aggregate economy. In the early twentieth century, economists like Schultz (1943) analyzed agrarian economies and land-use issues. As agricultural productivity improved, production shifted more to manufacturing. Modern macroeconomics adapted with models featuring capital and labor, markets for goods, and equilibrium wages (Solow, 1956).
How News and Its Context Drive Risk and Returns Around the World
We develop a classification methodology for the context and content of news articles to predict risk and return in stock markets in 51 developed and emerging economies. A parsimonious summary of news, including topic-specific sentiment, frequency, and unusualness (entropy) of word flow, predicts future country-level returns, volatilities, and drawdowns. Economic and statistical significance are high and larger for year-ahead than monthly predictions. The effect of news measures on market outcomes differs by country type and over time.
Reflections on enclothed cognition: Commentary on Burns et al.
The main objectives of this commentary are to discuss the replication study of Adam and Galinsky (2012, Experiment 1) by Burns, Fox, Greenstein, Olbright, and Montgomery, clarify the main idea behind enclothed cognition, supplement the literature review presented by Burns et al., discuss why our original study failed to replicate, and offer potential avenues for future research. Overall, we believe the replication study was conducted competently, and thus the results cast doubt on our finding that wearing a lab coat decreases errors on the Stroop test. At the same time, Burns et al.
The gravitational pull of expressing passion: When and how expressing passion elicits status conferral and support from others
Prior research attributes the positive effects of passion on professional success to intrapersonal characteristics. We propose that interpersonal processes are also critical because observers confer status on and support those who express passion. These interpersonal benefits of expressing passion are, however, contingent on several factors related to the expresser, perceiver, and context. Six studies, including entrepreneurial pitches from Dragons' Den and two pre-registered experiments, establish three key findings.
Household Debt Overhang and Unemployment
We use a labor-search model to explain why the worst employment slumps often follow expansions of household debt. We find that households protected by limited liability suffer from a household-debt-overhang problem that leads them to require high wages to work. Firms respond by posting high wages but few vacancies. This vacancy-posting effect implies that high household debt leads to high unemployment.
On the Global Financial Market Integration 'Swoosh' and the Trilemma
We propose a simple measure of de facto financial market integration based on a factor model of monthly equity returns, which can be computed back to the first era of financial globalization for 17 countries. Global financial market integration follows a "swoosh" shape — i.e. high pre-1913, still higher post-1990, low in the interwar period — rather than the other shapes hypothesized in earlier literature. We find no evidence of financial globalization reversing since the Great Recession as claimed in other recent studies.
Venture Capital and Capital Allocation
I show that venture capitalists' motivation to build reputation can have beneficial effects in the primary market, mitigating information frictions and helping firms go public. Because uninformed reputation-motivated venture capitalists want to appear informed, they are biased against backing firms — by not backing firms, they avoid taking low-value firms to market, which would ultimately reveal their lack of information. In equilibrium, reputation-motivated venture capitalists back relatively few bad firms, creating a certification effect that mitigates information frictions.
Gender Role Incongruity and Audience-based Gender Bias: The Case of Resource Exchange among Entrepreneurs
Do men and women generate the same benefits from using their social ties? This study addresses this question by examining how resources are allocated within social networks. Prior research has commonly attributed observed gender differences in network benefits to the tendency for women to be embedded in networks that are poorer in social and economic resources. Implicit in this explanation is that if women had access to more valuable networks they would receive similar benefits as do men.
Pathways to intercultural accuracy: Social projection processes and core cultural values
The present research examines intercultural accuracy—people's ability to make accurate judgments about outgroup values—and the role of social projection processes. Across four studies, U.S. and British participants showed low overall levels of intercultural accuracy for Chinese students’ individualistic and collectivistic values. In line with recent changes toward individualism in China, we observed different levels of intercultural accuracy, hinging on whether the criterion values of Chinese were assessed before (2001) or after (2015) this shift.
Culture of Trust and Division of Labor in Non-Hierarchical Teams
Firms exhibit heterogeneity in size, productivity, and internal structure, and this is true even within the same industry. It has been thought since the time of Adam Smith that a firm's internal structure affects its productivity through the channel of gains from specialization. Our paper provides evidence of a link between an organization's culture — specifically the trust environment — and its internal structure. We show experimentally that exogenously imposed culture endogenously leads to variation in organizational form.
Incorporating physiology into creativity research and practice: The effects of bodily stress responses on creativity in organizations
In the modern fast-paced workplace, employees are required to be creative under various levels of stress. In understanding the relationship between stress and creativity, organizational scholars and practitioners have largely focused on how stress affects cognition, while overlooking the role that physiological responses to stress might play in creative performance.