Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
We examine (1) whether the accounting, governance, and investing practices of Berkshire Hathaway investees are consistent with Warren Buffett's public statements on what constitutes good accounting, governance, and investing practices and (2) whether these practices are associated with Berkshire's initial "selection" or Buffett's subsequent "influence." Compared to control firms, we find that Berkshire investees are highly likely to follow Buffett's investment philosophy, somewhat likely to follow his preferred accounting, disclosure, and compensation policies, but unlikely to follow the bo
The case describes the launch of a social media platform by the largest container shipping company in the world. Students will have the opportunity to thoroughly evaluate the campaign, which by observable criteria, has done extremely well. The case provides details on the various platforms used, the nature of content provided on each, and the associated budgets (including headcount). The budget figures are particularly interesting because they permit a rich discussion around the social media program's ROI.
The value of a business depends on its future not its past. Nonetheless, some managers base key decisions on backwards-looking metrics or models that have been shown to be inappropriate in many situations.
What metrics and models can provide managers with steering control for maximizing the value of their business? This editorial provides some ideas.
Although a great deal of research has examined specific behaviors that positively affect leaders' negotiation processes and outcomes, there has been considerably less attention devoted to stable characteristics, psychological or physical, that might also influence outcomes at the bargaining table. In the current research, we identify a measureable physical trait — the facial width-to-height ratio — that predicts negotiation performance in men.
Aggregation, and minimizing associated information loss, is a pervasive theme in accounting. In contrast, this paper highlights some potential benefits of aggregation, using simple examples to illustrate ideas from a number of recent papers in a parsimonious manner. Aggregation rules can improve decision making because of their ability to convey appropriate information and because such rules may permit offsetting errors. Turning to control problems, aggregation has merit in the provision of both explicit and implicit incentives.
In this article, we review empirical research investigating the efficacy of perspective-taking — the active consideration of others' mental states and subjective experiences — as a strategy for navigating intergroup environments. We begin by describing some of the benefits accrued from perspective-taking: more favorable implicit and explicit intergroup evaluations, stronger approach-oriented action tendencies and positive non-verbal behaviors, increased intergroup helping, reduced reliance on stereotype-maintaining mental processes, and heightened recognition of intergroup disparities.
We introduce a new, market-based and forward looking measure of political risk derived from the yield spread between a country?s U.S. dollar debt and an equivalent U.S. Treasury bond. We explain the variation in these sovereign spreads with four factors: global economic conditions, country-specific economic factors, liquidity of the country?s bond, and political risk. We then extract the part of the sovereign spread that is due to political risk, making use of political risk ratings.
Do people know when they are seen as pressing too hard, yielding too readily, or having the right touch? And does awareness matter? We examined these questions in four studies. Study 1 used dyadic negotiations to reveal a modest link between targets' self-views and counterparts' views of targets' assertiveness, showing that those seen as under- and over-assertive were likely to see themselves as appropriately assertive.
A growing literature investigates the association between stock return variation and several aspects of information and governance structures, both in cross-country settings and cross-firm settings within the U.S. Several papers in this literature use idiosyncratic stock return volatility (s_e^2) as the measure of firm-specific return variation whereas others use return synchronicity, or R2.
How do firms repair their reputations after a serious accounting restatement? To answer this question, we review firms' press releases and identify 1,765 reputation-building actions taken by: (1) 94 restating firms in the periods before and after their restatement; and (2) a set of matched control firms during contemporaneous periods.
This research examines how consumers choose retailers when they are uncertain about store prices prior to shopping. Simulating everyday choice, participants made successive retailer choices where on each occasion they chose a retailer and only then learned product prices. The results of a series of studies demonstrated that participants were more likely to choose a retailer that offered an everyday low pricing strategy (EDLP) or that offered frequent small discounts over a retailer that offered infrequent large discounts.
Despite a 20-year trend toward integrated marketing communications, advertisers seldom coordinate television and search advertising campaigns. We find that television advertising for financial services brands increases both the number of related Google searches and searchers' tendency to use branded keywords in place of generic keywords. The elasticity of a brand's total searches with respect to its TV advertising is 0.17, an effect that peaks in the morning.
The current research establishes a first-mover disadvantage in negotiation. We propose that making the first offer in a negotiation will backfire when the sender reveals private information that an astute recipient can leverage to his or her advantage. In two experiments, we manipulated whether the first offer was purely distributive or revealed that the sender's preferences were compatible with the recipient's preferences (i.e., the negotiators wanted the same outcome on an issue).
We propose a framework for the joint study of the consumer's decision of where to buy and what to buy. The framework is rooted in utility theory where the utility is for a particular channel/brand combination. The framework contains firm actions, the consumer search process, the choice process, and consumer learning. We develop research questions within each of these areas. We then discuss methodological issues pertaining to the use of experimentation and econometrics.
This paper proposes an accounting framework that breaks up a country's gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double-counted terms. Our parsimonious framework bridges a gap between official trade statistics (in gross value terms) and national accounts (in value-added terms), and integrates all previous measures of vertical specialization and value-added trade in the literature into a unified framework.
Recent findings of low societal consensus in cultural values suggest that our field’s dominant paradigm — culture as shared values — is a fallacy. The perennial persistence of this illusion may come from the fact that it appeals to the human brain’s hardwired capacity for essentialism. Evidence against value consensus, however, does not doom all shared-meaning models of culture (pace Schwartz, 2013).
Following the classic work of Mitjuschin, Polterovich and Milleron, necessary and sufficient as well as sufficient conditions have been developed for when the multicommodity Law of Demand holds. However, far less attention has been focused on the nature and properties of violations. To address these questions, the existing sufficient conditions although simpler in form are of little value unless they are also necessary. We show when the widely cited Mitjuschin and Poterovich sufficient condition also becomes necessary.
Learning requires acquiring and using knowledge. How do individuals acquire knowledge of another culture? How do they use this knowledge in order to operate proficiently in a new cultural setting? What kinds of training would foster intercultural learning? These questions have been addressed in many literatures of applied and basic research, featuring disparate concepts, methods and measures. In this paper, we review the insights from these different literatures. We note parallels among findings of survey research on immigrants, expatriate managers, and exchange students.
Risk free asset demand in the classic portfolio problem is shown to decrease with income if and only if the consumer's uncertainty preferences over assets satisfy the preference condition that the risk free asset is more readily substituted for the risky asset as the quantity of the latter increases. In this case, the risky asset is said to be "urgently needed" following the terminology of the classic certainty analysis of Johnson (1913). The urgently needed property tends to be more readily satisfied in uncertainty versus certainty settings.
The article describes the potential negative consequences of the courses about academia, and especially the danger of weakening research and the innovation system of research universities. The MOOC courses may disrupt the structure of higher education because their business model is effective in de-linking the three components of an active University: teaching, research, and approval of credit for degree-granting courses. In the end, the article offers universities several ways to deal with the negative consequences of these MOOC courses.
We study a scenario in which a firm designs the compensation contract for a salesperson who exerts unobservable effort to increase the level of uncertain demand and, jointly, the firm also decides the inventory level to be stocked. We use a newsvendor-type model in which actual sales depend on the realized demand but are limited by the inventory available, and unfulfilled demand cannot be observed. In this setup, under the optimal contract, the agent is paid a bonus for meeting a sales quota.
This paper presents a framework for addressing normative accounting issues for reporting to shareholders. The framework is an alternative to the emerging Conceptual Framework of the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board. The framework can be broadly characterized as a utilitarian approach to accounting standard setting. It has two main features. First, accounting is linked to valuation models under which shareholders use accounting information to values their stakes.
Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are far less liquid, disclose less information, and exhibit lower institutional holdings than listed stocks. We exploit these different market conditions to test theories of cross-sectional return premiums. Compared to premiums in listed markets, the OTC illiquidity premium is several times higher, the size, value, and volatility premiums are similar, and the momentum premium is three times lower.
Historical cost accounting deals with uncertainty by deferring the recognition of earnings until the uncertainty has largely been resolved. Such accounting affects both earnings and book value and produces expected earnings growth deemed to be at risk. This paper shows that the earnings-to-price and book-to-price ratios that are the product of this accounting forecast both earnings growth and the risk to that growth.
It has been observed that ad-evoked feelings exert a positive influence on brand attitudes. To investigate the empirical generalizability of this phenomenon, we analyzed the responses of 1,576 consumers to 1,070 TV commercials from more than 150 different product categories. The findings suggest five empirical generalizations. First, ad-evoked feelings indeed have a substantial impact on brand evaluations, even under conditions that better approximate real marketplace settings than past studies did.
We propose that the psychological states individuals bring into newly formed groups can produce meaningful differences in status attainment. Three experiments explored whether experimentally created approach-oriented mindsets affected status attainment in groups, both immediately and over time. We predicted that approach-oriented states would lead to greater status attainment by increasing proactive behavior.
In transitions from state socialism, property rights are re-allocated to organizations and groups, creating new markets and new forms of economic enterprise that reshape the stratification order. A generation of research has estimated individual-level outcomes with income equations and mobility models, relying on broad assumptions about economic change. We redirect attention to the process of economic change that structures emerging markets.
Previous research suggests that there is a fundamental link between expansive body postures and feelings of power. The current research demonstrates that this link is not universal, but depends on people's cultural background (Western versus East Asian) and on the particular type of expansive posture enacted. Three types of expansive postures were examined in the present studies: the expansive-hands-spread-on-desk pose (Carney et al., 2010), the expansive-upright-sitting pose, and the expansive-feet-on-desk pose (Carney et al., 2010).
In this study of the impact of protests against Walmart (a first entrant) on Target (a second entrant) from 1998 to 2008 in U.S. geographic markets, we develop and test a theory of information spillovers from protests against corporations proposing to enter a new market. We argue that the number of protests directed against a first entrant is a noisy signal for the second entrant because such protests are likely to be dominated by protest-prone activists and so do not reflect the sentiments of the community.
If individuals buy a Snickers bar and subsequently see their favorite basketball team begin to play better, they might attribute this improved performance to their purchase decision. Even as consumers acknowledge that this type of control is irrational, we demonstrate that they are willing to superstitiously alter their purchase behavior (by choosing a less-preferred option) in hopes of helping their favorite team.
Perspective taking is often the glue that binds people together. However, we propose that in competitive contexts, perspective taking is akin to adding gasoline to a fire: It inflames already-aroused competitive impulses and leads people to protect themselves from the potentially insidious actions of their competitors. Overall, we suggest that perspective taking functions as a relational amplifier.
The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility (“uncertainty”), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being stronger.
We present a theoretical model of reappropriation — taking possession of a slur previously used exclusively by dominant groups to reinforce another group's lesser status. Ten experiments tested this model and established a reciprocal relationship between power and self-labeling with a derogatory group term. We first investigated precursors to self-labeling: Group, but not individual, power increased participants' willingness to label themselves with a derogatory term for their group. We then examined the consequences of such self-labeling for both the self and observers.
Consumer psychology faces serious issues of internal and external relevance. Most of these issues originate in seven fundamental problems with the way consumer psychologists plan and conduct their research that could be called the seven sins of consumer psychology.
We use longitudinal, disease-level data to analyze the impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in Sweden, where mean age at death increased by 1.88 years during the period 1997-2010. Pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have increased mean age at death by 0.60 years during the period. The estimates indicate that longevity depends on the number of drugs to treat a disease, not the number of drug classes.
Markets for information products exhibit varying degrees of competition on both the supply and the demand side. This paper studies the potential complementarity of information products, equilibrium information buying behaviors and information price setting in such markets. Our game-theoretic model consists of two information providers selling imperfect information to two competing clients and allows for different information quality levels as well as varying degrees of client competition.
Accusations of wrongdoing, baseless or justified, can severely tarnish a company's reputation. Once disseminated, even baseless accusations can persist and cause considerable damage for a company. This study examines the proactive crisis communication strategy of inoculating individuals against invalid accusations before they go viral. An experiment was conducted in a real world consumer context among members of an online consumer panel using an electronics discounter as the research stimulus.
We study the drivers of the emergence of opinion leaders in a networked community where users establish links to others, indicating their "trust" for the link receiver's opinion. This leads to the formation of a network, with high in-degree individuals being the opinion leaders. We use a dyad-level proportional hazard model with time-varying covariates to model the growth of this network. To estimate our model, we use Weighted Exogenous Sampling with Bayesian Inference, a methodology that we develop for fast estimation of dyadic models on large network data sets.
We posit that compared to the cognitive system, the affective system of judgment and decision making is relatively more engaged in the present. Specifically, we hypothesize that even if their accessibility is held constant, affective feelings are weighted more heavily in consumer judgments and decisions set in the present than in equivalent judgments and decisions set in the future or in the past.
Systemic risk is an issue of great concern in modern financial markets as well as, more broadly, in the management of complex systems. We propose an axiomatic framework for systemic risk. Our framework allows for an independent specification of (1) a functional of the cross-sectional profile of outcomes across agents in the system in a single scenario of nature, and (2) a functional of the profile of aggregated outcomes across scenarios of nature.
Although previous research has shown that making the first offer leads to a distributive advantage in negotiations, the current research explored how the timing of first offers affects the creativity of negotiation agreements. We hypothesized that making the first offer later rather than earlier in the negotiation would facilitate the discovery of creative agreements that better meet the parties' underlying interests. Experiment 1 demonstrated that compared with early first offers, late first offers facilitated creative agreements that better met the parties' underlying interests.
We analyze the role of retail investors in stock pricing using a database uniquely suited for this purpose. The data allow us to address selection bias concerns and to separately examine aggressive (market) and passive (limit) orders. Both aggressive and passive net buying positively predict firms' monthly stock returns with no evidence of return reversal. Only aggressive orders correctly predict firm news, including earnings surprises, suggesting they convey novel cash flow information.
We consider a repeated newsvendor problem in which the decision-maker (DM) does not have access to the underlying distribution of discrete demand. We analyze three informational settings: i) the DM observes realized demand in each period; ii) the DM only observes realized sales; and iii) the DM observes realized sales but also a lost sales indicator that records whether demand was censored or not. We analyze the implications of censoring on performance and key characteristics that effective policies should possess.
Integrating recent work on emotional communication with social science theories on unpredictability, we investigated whether communicating emotional inconsistency and unpredictability would affect recipients' concession-making in negotiation. We hypothesized that emotional inconsistency and unpredictability would increase recipients' concessions by making recipients feel less control over the outcome. In Experiment 1, dyads negotiated face-to-face after one negotiator within each dyad expressed either anger or emotional inconsistency by alternating between anger and happiness.
The current research examines the extent to which visual perception is distorted by one's experience of power. Specifically, does power distort impressions of another person's physical size? Two experiments found that participants induced to feel powerful through episodic primes (Study 1) and legitimate leadership role manipulations (Study 2) systematically underestimated the size of a target, and participants induced to feel powerless systematically overestimated the size of the target. These results emerged whether the target person was in a photograph or face-to-face.
The current research examines the extent to which visual perception is distorted by one's experience of power. Specifically, does power distort impressions of another person's physical size? Two experiments found that participants induced to feel powerful through episodic primes (Study 1) and legitimate leadership role manipulations (Study 2) systematically underestimated the size of a target, and participants induced to feel powerless systematically overestimated the size of the target. These results emerged whether the target person was in a photograph or face-to-face.