Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
In this paper, we examine how people evaluate unusual objects and how they intuit whether others will like those objects. We focus on two predictions. First, we believe that an object's uniqueness is susceptible to framing by drawing attention toward or away from the object's unusualness. We expect such "uniqueness framing" interacts with needs for uniqueness (NFU): high NFU perceivers will like the same objects (e.g., neckties, names) more when asked to dwell on the object's uniqueness vs. typicality while low NFU perceivers will like them less.
How does one tell when rapid growth in house prices is caused by fundamental factors of supply and demand and when it is an unsustainable bubble? In this paper, we explain how to assess the state of house prices - both whether there is a bubble and what underlying factors support housing demand - in a way that is grounded in economic theory. In doing so, we correct four common fallacies about the costliness of the housing market.
Outside the United States and the United Kingdom, large corporations usually have controlling owners, who are usually very wealthy families. Pyramidal control structures, cross shareholding, and super-voting rights let such families control corporations without making a commensurate capital investment. In many countries, a few such families end up controlling considerable proportions of their countries' economies. Three points emerge.
Prior research suggests that bicultural individuals (i.e., individuals with 2 distinct sets of cultural values) shift the values they espouse depending on cues such as language. The authors examined whether the effects of language extend to a potentially less malleable domain, behavioral decisions, exploring the extent to which bilingual individuals shift the underlying strategies used to resolve choice problems.
In this paper, we investigate the equilibrium behavior of decentralized supply chains with competing retailers under demand uncertainty. We also design contractual arrangements between the parties that allow the decentralized chain to perform as well as a centralized one.
For several decades, U.S. policy in telecommunications and electronic mass media focused on the encouragement of competition. This policy, usually known as deregulation but more accurately described as liberalization, is aimed at an opening of the market to competitors and a reduction of market power. There were numerous elements and proceedings to this policy by the Federal Communications Commission, the states? public service commissions and legislatures, the courts, and Congress. Of these actions, none was more comprehensive than the Telecommunications Act of 1996.
The collapse of Long Term Capital Management ("LTCM") in Fall 1998 and the Federal Reserve Bank's subsequent efforts to orchestrate a bailout raise important questions about the structure of the Bankruptcy Code. The Code contains numerous provisions affording special treatment to financial derivatives contracts, the most important of which exempts these contracts from the "automatic stay" and permits counterparties to terminate derivatives contracts with a debtor in bankruptcy and seize underlying collateral.
Motivated by applications in telephone call centers, we consider a service system model with m customer classes and r server pools. The model is one with doubly stochastic arrivals, which means that the m-vector λ of instantaneous arrival rates is allowed to vary both temporally and stochastically.
In this paper, we analyze the optimal policy for a risk averse agent who wants to sell a large block of shares of a risky security in the presence of price impact and transactions costs. Our framework reduces to the standard Merton portfolio problem in the absence of any market frictions. Optimal liquidation results in revenue distributions which are substantially different from those generated by a naive strategy. The main tradeoff involves choosing between revenue distributions which have high means versus those which have low variances.
The conventional wisdom views high levels of education as a prerequisite for democracy. This paper shows that existing evidence for this view is based on cross-sectional correlations, which disappear once we look at within-country variation. In other words, there is no evidence that countries that increase their education are more likely to become democratic.
Age differences in intrinsic and extrinsic motivation and the relationships of each to academic outcomes were examined in an ethnically diverse sample of 797 3rd-grade through 8th-grade children. Using independent measures, the authors found intrinsic and extrinsic motivation to be only moderately correlated, suggesting that they may be largely orthogonal dimensions of motivation in school.
A general approach to improving simulation accuracy uses information about auxiliary control variables with known expected values to improve the estimation of unknown quantities. We analyze weighted Monte Carlo estimators that implement this idea by applying weights to independent replications. The weights are chosen to constrain the weighted averages of the control variables. We distinguish two cases (unbiased and biased), depending on whether the weighted averages of the controls are constrained to equal their expected values or some other values.
Contagion is usually defined as correlation between markets in excess of what would be implied by economic fundamentals; however, there is considerable disagreement regarding the definitions of the fundamentals, how the fundamentals might differ across countries, and the mechanisms that link the fundamentals to asset returns. Our research takes, as a starting point, a two-factor model with time-varying betas that accommodates various degrees of market integration between different markets.
Despite the influx of measures which can be customized to the demands of each business unit (e.g., customer satisfaction surveys and quality indices), many firms have been dogged in their reliance on standardized measures (e.g., conventional financial metrics) in performance evaluation. In this paper, we consider one justification: though customized measures may more accurately target the goals of a particular unit, standardized measures may offer more meaningful opportunities for relative performance evaluation.
A liquidity trader wishes to trade a ?xed number of shares within a certain time horizon and to minimize the mean and variance of the costs of trading. Explicit formulas for the optimal trading strategies show that risk-averse liquidity traders reduce their order sizes over time and execute a higher fraction of their total trading volume in early periods when price volatility or liquidity increases. In the presence of transaction fees, numerical simulations suggest that traders want to trade more frequently when price volatility goes up or liquidity declines.
Psychological research has repeatedly demonstrated two seemingly irreconcilable human tendencies. People are motivated towards internal consistency, or acting in accordance with stable, self-generated preferences. Simultaneously though, people demonstrate considerable variation in the content of their preferences, often induced by subtle external influences. The current studies test the hypothesis that decision makers resolve this tension by sustaining illusions of preference consistency, which, in turn, confer psychological benefits.
We present a model of nonprofit governance built on two assumptions: (1) organizations wish to hold precautionary savings in order to smooth expenditures; and (2) it is relatively easy for managers to divert these funds for personal use. Hence, donors face a trade off between expenditure smoothing and donation dissipation.We examine the model's predictions using panel data on U.S. nonprofits.
Suppose you open talks with an important customer by making an aggressive first offer. He becomes offended. You back off a bit; he responds by trying to take advantage. This back-and-forth negotiation process, which many liken to a dance, can leave you shuffling endlessly around the issues, while resentment builds on both sides. Fortunately, a versatile strategy exists that allows you to take the lead in the dance: multiple equivalent simultaneous offers, or MESOs.
This paper is concerned with the issue of how to balance bailouts (or "lending into arrears") with debt reductions (or "private sector involvement") in the resolution of sovereign debt crises. It provides a review of recent proposals to regulate sovereign debt renegotiations under a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM). In addition to defending a sovereign bankruptcy proposal we have put forward in recent work, this article proposes a major reorientation of the IMF's role in sovereign debt crises.
In the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board's Sep 2004 Standing Advisory Group Meeting, one of the sessions was devoted to verifiability concerns regarding fair values. At that meeting, some participants expressed the opinion that accounting estimates pose broader problems beyond computing fair values, and investors need to be educated about the role of estimates in financial statements. This paper suggests an extension to the existing accounting model to allow users to better understand the role of estimates/forecasts in financial statements.
Combining survey responses and trading records of clients of a German retail broker, this paper examines some of the causes for the apparent failure to buy and hold a well-diversified portfolio. The subjective investor attributes gleaned from the survey help explain the variation in actual portfolio and trading choices. Self-reported risk aversion is the single most important determinant of both portfolio diversification and turnover; other things equal, investors who report being more risk tolerant hold less diversified portfolios and trade more aggressively.
We survey and interview more than 400 executives to determine the factors that drive reported earnings and disclosure decisions. We find that managers would rather take economic actions that could have negative long-term consequences than make within-GAAP accounting choices to manage earnings. A surprising 78% of our sample admits to sacrificing long-term value to smooth earnings. Managers also work to maintain predictability in earnings and financial disclosures.
We develop an equilibrium model to understand how the efficiency of capital allocation depends on outside investor protection and the external financing needs of firms. We show that when capital allocation is constrained by poor investor protection, an increase in firms' external financing needs may improve allocative efficiency by fostering the reallocation of capital from low to high productivity projects. We also find novel empirical support for this prediction.
While recent research has emphasized the desirability of studying effects of changes in marginal tax rates on taxable income, broadly defined, there has been comparatively little analysis of effects of marginal tax rate changes on entrepreneurial entry. This margin is likely to be important both because of the likely greater elasticity of entrepreneurial decisions with respect to tax changes (relative to decisions about hours worked) and because of recent research linking entrepreneurship, mobility, and household wealth accumulation.
We perform an econometric analysis of the effect of new drug launches on longevity, using data from the IMS Health Drug Launches database and the WHO Mortality Database.
Adaptive metric utility balance is at the heart of one of the most widely used and studied methods for conjoint analysis. We use formal models, simulations, and empirical data to suggest that adaptive metric utility balance leads to partworth estimates that are relatively biased—smaller partworths are upwardly biased relative to larger partworths. Such relative biases could lead to erroneous managerial decisions.
This article critically examines McGraw and Tetlock's (2005) notion of relational framing and offers directions for future development of the conceptual model. I begin by discussing the inherent limitations of scenario studies and show how the emergence of attribution analysis in real interpersonal interactions may qualify the results obtained in these studies. I then discuss the norm consistency and social identity maintenance mechanisms proposed in the article and advance several alternative mediators of the phenomenon, including affect and anticipated interaction.
We study a model of imperfect competition and limited production capacity, in which a choice of low product quality enables firms to increase total production. We find that in the presence of limited capacity, such reduced quality often results in increased social welfare. We also explore the relation between the extent of competition and the choice of quality. We find that, in some cases, reduced competition leads to increased production, decreased average quality, increases total welfare, and makes consumers better off.
Does country transparency affect international portfolio investment? We examine this question by constructing new measures of transparency and by making use of a unique microdata set on portfolio holdings of emerging market funds around the world. We distinguish between government and corporate transparency. There is clear evidence that funds systematically invest less in less transparent countries. Moreover, funds have a greater propensity to exit nontransparent countries during crises.
Mental state inferences - judgments about what others think, want, and feel - are central to social life. Models of such "mind-reading" have considered main effects, including social projection and stereotyping, but have not specified the conditions that govern when these tools will be used. This paper develops such a model, claiming that when perceivers assume an initial general sense of similarity to a target, they engage in greater projection and less stereotyping. Three studies featuring manipulations of similarity supported this claim.
The current experiment explored the effect of activating a counterfactual mind-set on the discussion of unique information and group judgment accuracy. Evidence suggests that a counterfactual mind-set is characterized by a focused, analytic mental state and, when activated at the group level, improves group judgment accuracy in the murder mystery paradigm (a hidden profile task).
We investigate the ability of a tax-based fundamental –the ratio of tax-to-book income– to predict earnings growth and stock returns and to explain the earnings-price ratio. This tax fundamental reflects both temporary and permanent book-tax differences as well as tax accruals, such as changes in the tax valuation allowance. We find that the tax-to-book income ratio predicts subsequent five-year earnings changes, both before and after the implementation of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 109 in 1993. For the pre-SFAS No.
This article pursues a statistical study of the Hough transform, the celebrated computer vision algorithm used to detect the presence of lines in a noisy image. We first study asymptotic properties of the Hough transform estimator, whose objective is to find the line that "best" fits a set of planar points. In particular, we establish strong consistency and rates of convergence, and characterize the limiting distribution of the Hough transform estimator.
Many fundamental questions in oligopoly models reduce to the analysis of the monotonicity properties of various performance measures under the model's Nash equilibrium, with respect to specific exogenously specified parameters. These strategic parameters may have an impact on the demand functions of the various competitors, their cost structures or both.
We hypothesized that the activation of a counterfactual mind-set minimizes group decision errors caused by the failure of groups to discuss unshared, uniquely held information. In two experiments, we manipulated the salience of counterfactual thoughts in a pre-task scenario and then had groups of three individuals discuss a murder mystery case. In both experiments, counterfactual mind-sets increased the discussion of unshared information and helped groups to identify the correct murder suspect.
Participants in 401(k) retirement plans violate the basic principle of diversification by investing significant fractions of their savings in their employers' equity. This paper characterizes investors' active changes to their company stock investment over time by analyzing new inflows and transfers. The average investor seems to base active changes on salient information, paying attention to past returns, volatility, and business performance.
This paper describes a practical algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation for the pricing of multi-dimensional American (i.e., continuously exercisable) and Bermudan (i.e., discretely-exercisable) options. The method generates both lower and upper bounds for the Bermudan option price and hence gives valid confidence intervals for the true value. Lower bounds can be generated using any number of primal algorithms.
This paper studies recurrence properties of autoregressive (AR) processes with "super-heavy-tailed" innovations. Specifically, we study the case where the innovations are distributed, roughly speaking, as log-Pareto random variables (i.e. the tail decay is essentially a logarithm raised to some power). We show that these processes exhibit interesting and somewhat surprising behaviour.