New Products Research
Proximity Bias: Motivated Effects of Spatial Distance on Probability Judgments
Do Socially Responsible Firms Walk the Talk?
Several firms claim to be socially responsible. We confront these claims with the data using the most notable such proclamation in recent years, the August 2019 Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation by the Business Roundtable (BRT). The BRT is a large, deeply influential business group containing many of America’s largest firms; the 2019 Statement proclaimed that a corporation’s purpose is to deliver value to all stakeholders, rather than to solely maximize shareholder value.
Reducing discrimination against job seekers with and without employment gaps
Past research shows that decision-makers discriminate against applicants with career breaks. Career breaks are common due to caring responsibilities, especially for working mothers, thereby leaving job seekers with employment gaps on their résumés.
Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance
We model the welfare consequences of portfolio mandates that restrict investors to hold firms with net-zero carbon emissions. To qualify for these mandates, value-maximizing firms have to accumulate decarbonization capital. Qualification lowers a firm’s required rate of return by its decarbonization investments divided by Tobin’s q, i.e., the dividend yield shareholders forgo to address the global-warming externality.
Strategic Bank Liability Structure Under Capital Requirements
Banks strategically choose and dynamically restructure deposits and nondeposit debt in response to the minimum requirements on total capital and tangible equity. We derive the optimal strategic liability structure and show that it minimizes the protection for deposits conditional on capital requirements. Although, given any liability structure, regulators can set capital requirements high enough to remove the incentive for risk substitution, the strategic response to the capital requirements always preserves this incentive.
The Impacts of Paid Family and Medical Leave on Worker Health, Family Well-Being, and Employer Outcomes
This article reviews the evidence on the impacts of paid family and medical leave (PFML) policies on workers’ health, family well-being, and employer outcomes. While an extensive body of research demonstrates the mostly beneficial effects of PFML taken by new parents on infant, child, and parental health, less is known about its impact on employees who need leave to care for older children, adult family members, or elderly relatives. The evidence on employers is similarly limited but indicates that PFML does not impose major burdens on them.
The Value of Data Records
Many e-commerce platforms use buyers' personal data to intermediate their transactions with sellers. How much value do such intermediaries derive from the data record of each single individual? We characterize this value and find that one of its key components is a novel externality between records, which arises when the intermediary pools some records to withhold the information they contain. Ignoring this can significantly bias the evaluations of data records.
Corporate culture: Evidence from the field
Ninety-two percent of the 1348 North American executives we survey believe that improving corporate culture would increase firm value. A striking 84% believe their company needs to improve its culture. But how can that be achieved?
Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-Induced Revaluation of Real Estate
We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases away from the center, thereby flattening the bid-rent curve in most U.S. metropolitan areas. Across MSAs, the flattening of the bid-rent curve is larger when working from home is more prevalent, housing markets are more regulated, and supply is less elastic. Housing markets predict that urban rent growth will exceed suburban rent growth for the foreseeable future.
How Advertising Expenditures Affect Consumers’ Perceptions of Quality: A Psychology-Based Assessment of Brand, Category, and Country-Level Moderators
Managing with Style? Micro-Evidence on the Allocation of Managerial Attention
Private or public equity? The evolving entrepreneurial finance landscape
The US entrepreneurial finance market has changed dramatically over the last two decades. Entrepreneurs who raise their first round of venture capital retain 30% more equity in their firm and are more likely to control their board of directors. Late-stage start-ups are raising larger amounts of capital in the private markets from a growing pool of traditional and new investors. These private market changes have coincided with a sharp decline in the number of firms going public—and when firms do go public, they are older and have raised more private capital.
The More You Ask, the Less You Get: When Additional Questions Hurt External Validity
Researchers and practitioners in marketing, economics, and public policy often use preference elicitation tasks to forecast realworld behaviors. These tasks typically ask a series of similarly structured questions.
Thompson Sampling with Information Relaxation Penalties
We consider a finite-horizon multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in a Bayesian setting, for which we propose an information relaxation sampling framework. With this framework, we define an intuitive family of control policies that include Thompson sampling (TS) and the Bayesian optimal policy as endpoints. Analogous to TS, which, at each decision epoch pulls an arm that is best with respect to the randomly sampled parameters, our algorithms sample entire future reward realizations and take the corresponding best action.
Working From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse
Working from home resulted in a sharp contraction in office demand. We built a valuation model to find that the office stock lost about 45% in value. More for low-quality buildings and in cities with a larger IT sector and less for trophy buildings. We discuss the implications for mortgage lenders and the vitality of cities.
Social Learning in the Presence of Choice
This paper studies product ranking mechanisms of a monopolistic online platform in the presence of social learning. The products’ quality is initially unknown, but consumers can sequentially learn it as online reviews accumulate. A salient aspect of our problem is that consumers, who want to purchase a product from a list of items displayed by the platform, incur a search cost while scrolling down the list. In this setting, the social learning dynamics, and hence the demand, is affected by the interplay of two unique features: substitution and ranking effects.
Office Real Estate as a Hedge against Inflation and the Impact of Lease Contracts
This article analyzes the hedging potential of real estate and especially looks at the impact of lease contracts in various countries around the world on the inflation hedge capability for both expected and unexpected inflation. The dataset consists of direct real estate rent and capital value data for 59 cities/MSAs in 25 countries between 1991 and 2020 to make international comparison over a long time period possible. The results indicate that real estate is a good hedge against inflation, and especially against unexpected inflation.
Green Moral Hazards
Moral hazards are ubiquitous. Green ones typically involve technological fixes: Environmentalists often see ‘technofixes’ as morally fraught because they absolve actors from taking more difficult steps toward systemic solutions. Carbon removal and especially solar geoengineering are only the latest example of such technologies. We here explore green moral hazards throughout American history. We argue that dismissing (solar) geoengineering on moral hazard grounds is often unproductive.
Identifying Factors Predicting Kidney Graft Survival in Chile Using Elastic-Net-Regularized Cox Regression
We developed a predictive statistical model to identify donor–recipient characteristics related to kidney graft survival in the Chilean population. Given the large number of potential predictors relative to the sample size, we implemented an automated variable selection mechanism that could be revised in future studies as more national data is collected. Materials and Methods: A retrospective multicenter study was conducted to analyze data from 822 adult kidney transplant recipients from adult donors between 1998 and 2018.
Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Limited Enforcement
We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present-biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which are joint and bounded. We show that optimal incentives must be bang-bang.
Martin Weitzman: A Gift that Keeps on Giving
Do Digital Technology Firms Earn Excess Profits? Alternative Perspectives
Despite regulators’ allegations that digital technology giants misuse their market power to earn abnormal profits, there is a dearth of systematic work on (i) whether digital-tech firms in general, and tech giants in particular, earn excess profits; or (ii) whether their abnormal profitability, if any, is due to market power.
Ad Expenditures and Perceived Quality: A Replication and Extension
Formalizing the Informal: Adopting a Formal Culture-fit Measurement System in the Employee Selection Process
Many organizations rely on formal management control systems that align employee values with organizational values (i.e., culture-fit) to shape organizational culture. Using proprietary data from a highly-decentralized organization, I examine the employee performance consequences of adopting a formal culture-fit measurement system in employee selection. I exploit the staggered feature of the adoption of the system, and find that employees selected with the system perform significantly better than those without the system.
Does ESG Negative Screening Work?
We revisit the firm value and pricing implications of the negative screening of sin stocks. Unlike prior work, we find that institutional ownership and valuations related to sin stocks are not different from those of other stocks after controlling for differences in fundamentals between sin and non-sin stocks. Sin stocks do not differ in the likelihood of exiting the public market, the cost of raising new equity, and in the announcement returns around negative ESG news relative to non-sin stocks, casting further doubt on whether negative screening hurts sin stocks.
Utilizing Partial Flexibility to Improve Emergency Department Flow: Theory and Implementation
Emergency Departments (EDs) typically have multiple areas where patients of different acuity levels receive treatments. In practice, different areas often operate with fixed nurse staffing levels. When there are substantial imbalances in congestion among different areas, it could be beneficial to deviate from the original assignment and reassign nurses. However, reassignments typically are only feasible at the beginning of 8-12-hour shifts, providing partial flexibility in adjusting staffing levels.
Defaults are not a panacea: distinguishing between default effects on choices and on outcomes.
Recently, defaults have become celebrated as a low-cost and easy-to-implement nudge for promoting positive outcomes, both at an individual and societal level. In the present research, we conducted a large-scale field experiment (N = 32,508) in an educational context to test the effectiveness of a default intervention in promoting participation in a potentially beneficial achievement test. We found that a default manipulation increased the rate at which high school students registered to take the test but failed to produce a significant change in students’ actual rate of test-taking.
An Accounting-based Asset Pricing Model and a Fundamental Factor
This paper recasts the consumption asset pricing model in terms of observable accounting outcomes by recognizing accounting principles that connect those outcomes to consumption and the risk to consumption. The model prompts the construction of a pricing factor from observed accounting information. The factor performs well relative to extant factors in explaining cross-sectional returns. Further, it delivers out-of-sample expected returns that forecast the actual returns and the forward betas that investors actually experience.
Spending Windfall (“Found”) Time on Hedonic versus Utilitarian Activities
Issues Revisited from Rumelt’s (1974) “Diversification, Strategy & Performance”
Performance expectations are revisited pertaining to particular corporate strategies that were highlighted by Rumelt (1974). In particular, suggestions regarding expectations about conglomerate enterprises, vertical integration, and mature- or declining-demand businesses are offered in light of additional information about research findings and observed industry phenomena that are at odds with information available when Rumelt's (1974) study of diversification was performed.
Benefits and Limitations of Multi-Item Scales
Commentaries on ‘Scale Use and Abuse: Toward Best Practices in the Deployment of Scales
Managing Queues with Different Resource Requirements
Toward a Pedagogy for Consumer Anthropology: Method, Theory, Marketing
This paper focuses on teaching the application of anthropology in business to marketing students. It begins with the premise that consumer marketers have long used ethnography as a component of their qualitative market research toolkit to inform their knowledge about and empathy for consumers. A question for market research educators who include ethnography in their curricula is if and how to teach the richness of anthropologically based approaches, especially given a decoupling of ethnographic method from anthropological theory in much consumer research practice.
Brand Actions and Financial Consequences: a Review of Key Findings and Directions for Future Research
Diversity initiatives in the US workplace: A brief history, their intended and unintended consequences
Diversity initiatives are designed to help workers from disadvantaged backgrounds achieve equitable opportunities and outcomes in organizations. However, these programs are often ineffective. To better understand less-than-desired outcomes and the shifting diversity landscape, we synthesize literature on how corporate affirmative action programs became diversity initiatives and current literature on their effectiveness. We focus specifically on work dealing with mechanisms that make diversity initiatives effective as well as their unintended consequences.
Where Has All the Data Gone?
As financial technology improves and data becomes more abundant, do market prices reflect this growing information and allocate capital more efficiently? While a number of recent studies have documented rises in aggregate price efficiency, we show that there are large cross-sectional differences. The previously-documented increases are driven by a rise in the informativeness of large, growth stocks. The informational efficiency of smaller assets' prices or prices of assets with less growth potential are either flat or declining.
“Invisible” Discrimination: Divergent Outcomes for the Nonprototypicality of Black Women
By integrating the intersectional invisibility hypothesis with the behaviors from intergroup affect and stereotypes map framework, we examine the extent to which Black women’s dual-subordinated identities render them nonprototypical victims of discrimination, relative to White women and Black men, and the corresponding consequences.
Attribute Privacy: Framework and Mechanisms
Ensuring the privacy of training data is a growing concern since many machine learning models are trained on confidential and potentially sensitive data. Much attention has been devoted to methods for protecting individual privacy during analyses of large datasets. However in many settings, global properties of the dataset may also be sensitive (e.g., mortality rate in a hospital rather than presence of a particular patient in the dataset).
Affordable Housing and City Welfare
Housing affordability has become the main policy challenge for most large cities in the world. Zoning, rent control, housing vouchers, and tax credits are the main levers employed by policy makers. We build a new dynamic stochastic spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the effect of these policies on house prices, rents, residential construction, labor supply, output, income and wealth inequality, as well as the location decision of households within the city. The analysis incorporates risk, wealth effects, and resident landlords.
Bank Liquidity Provision across the Firm Size Distribution
We use supervisory loan-level data to document that small firms (SMEs) obtain shorter maturity credit lines than large firms, post more collateral, have higher utilization rates, and pay higher spreads. We rationalize these facts as the equilibrium outcome of a trade-off between lender commitment and discretion. Using the COVID recession, we test the prediction that SMEs are subject to greater lender discretion. Consistent with this hypothesis, SMEs did not draw down whereas large firms did, even in response to similar demand shocks.
Currency Factors
We examine the ability of existing and new factor models to explain the comovements of G10-currency changes. Extant currency factors include the carry, volatility, value, and momentum factors. Using a new clustering technique, we find a clear two-block structure in currency comovements with the first block containing mostly the dollar currencies, and the other the European currencies.
The Commitment Benefit of Consols in Government Debt Management
We consider optimal government debt maturity in a deterministic economy in which the government can issue any arbitrary debt maturity structure and in which bond prices are a function of the government's current and future primary surpluses. The government sequentially chooses policy, taking into account how current choices - which impacts future policy -- feed back into current bond prices. We show that issuing consols constitutes the unique stationary optimal debt portfolio, as it boosts government credibility to future policy and reduces the debt financing costs.
Shadow Bank Distress and Household Debt Relief: Evidence from the CARES Act
Lenders (loan originators) frequently sell the right to service loans to other intermediaries (loan servicers). It is loan servicers rather than originators who are responsible for resolving borrowers’ financial distress. They are also required to make payment advances to investors on behalf of delinquent borrowers until the distress resolution process is complete. We begin with the observation that at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, shadow banks— nondepository financial institutions—serviced approximately half of the total mortgage debt in the United States (Cherry et al.
Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects
We analyze the impact of the Second Avenue Subway (Q-train) construction on local real estate prices, which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find evidence of higher real estate prices in the vicinity of areas served by the new Q-train, relative to other areas in Manhattan's Upper East Side. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway leads is captured through property taxes, and is insufficient to cover the cost of the subway. Value capture through targeted property tax increases can help close the funding gap.
Quantifying utilitarian outcomes to inform triage ethics: Simulated performance of a ventilator triage protocol under Sars-CoV-2 pandemic surge conditions
Background
Equitable protocols to triage life-saving resources must be specified prior to shortages in order to promote transparency, trust and consistency. How well proposed utilitarian protocols perform to maximize lives saved is unknown. We aimed to estimate the survival rates that would be associated with implementation of the New York State 2015 guidelines for ventilator triage, and to compare them to a first-come-first-served triage method.
Methods
Using Social Network Activity Data to Identify and Target Job Seekers
An important challenge for many firms is to identify the life transitions of its customers, such as job searching, expecting a child, or purchasing a home. Inferring such transitions, which are generally unobserved to the firm, can offer the firms opportunities to be more relevant to their customers. In this paper, we demonstrate how a social network platform can leverage its longitudinal user data to identify which of its users are likely to be job seekers. Identifying job seekers is at the heart of the business model of professional social network platforms.
Framing to reduce present bias in infrastructure design intentions.
Infrastructure professionals (N = 261) were randomly assigned to either a future or present-framed project description and asked to recommend design attributes for an infrastructure project. The future-framed condition led professionals to propose a significantly longer infrastructure design life, useful life to the community, and acceptable return on financial investment. The findings suggest a straightforward and inexpensive way to lessen present bias in various design contexts
Service design to balance waiting time and infection risk: An application for elections during the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused great disruption to the service sector, and it has, in turn, adapted by implementing measures that reduce physical contact among employees and users; examples include home-office work and the setting of occupancy restrictions at indoor locations.