Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
Research on object concepts has identified one level of abstraction as "basic" in cognition and communication. We investigated whether concepts for routine social events have a basic level by replicating the converging operations used to investigate object concepts. In Experiment I, subjects were presented with event names from a taxonomy and were asked to list the actions comprising the event.
I construct an intertemporal model in which investors trade shares of a firm. All trading is done through competitive market makers. After the initial period and before the end of the planning horizon, information is asymmetrically distributed among traders, and the prices for investors who buy shares are higher than for those who sell shares. The presence of this deviation from the Walrasian paradigm notwithstanding, dividend policy does not affect the initial period's share price or shareholders' welfare. This result is robust to various extensions of the model.
Federal cutbacks in urban aid in the 1970s forced cities to finance redevelopment projects with their own resources. Freed from federal rules and regulations, cities responded with invention, devising new financial strategies that proved to be powerful alternatives to direct federal aid. The process that fostered the solutions—public-private dealmaking—transformed the nature of city development practice, raising with it troublesome issues of accountability. This article describes these financial strategies and the nature of public subsidies in the deals.
Literature concerning the quality of individual and face-to-face group judgments has generally concluded that both groups and statistically pooled individuals outperform randomly chosen or average individuals. This paper extends previous research by comparing statistically pooled individual judgments of both individuals and face-to-face groups in a stock selection task. In general, decisions that would have resulted from statistically pooled judgments were better (as assessed by future stock value) than those that would have resulted from individual or face-to-face group judgments.
We consider distribution systems with a depot and many geographically dispersed retailers each of which faces external demands occurring at constant, deterministic but retailer specific rates. All stock enters the system through the depot from where it is distributed to the retailers by a fleet of capacitated vehicles combining deliveries into efficient routes. Inventories are kept at the retailers but not at the depot.
We consider a single-server queueing system with Poisson arrivals and general service times. While the server is up, it is subject to breakdowns according to a Poisson process. When the server breaks down, we need to repair the server immediately by initiating one of two available repair operations. The operating costs of the system include customer holding costs, repair costs and running costs. The objective is to find a corrective maintenance policy that minimizes the long-run average operating costs of the system. The problem is formulated as a semi-Markov decision process.
This study reports on the ex-post performance of survivor REITs and RECs over a 14.5-year period covering several business cycles. The results show that the systematic risk and risk-adjusted returns of REITs and RECs are quite different, especially during periods of low growth in real GNP. Relative to the overall stock market, survivor REITs, in particular, equity REITs, exhibited less volatility and higher returns than previous studies revealed.
This article treats the dynamic lot size model with quantity discount in purchase price. We study the problem with two different cost structures: the all-units-discount cost structure and the incremental-discount cost structure. We solve the problem under both discount cost structures by dynamic programming algorithms of complexity O(T3) and O(T2), respectively, with T the number of periods in the planning horizon.
Infinitesimal perturbation analysis is a method of obtaining estimates of performance sensitivity through simulation of a stochastic system. Expressions are derived for the limiting value of a broad class of such estimators associated with queueing networks, in terms of the unique solution to a set of linear equations. The approach used is to augment the underlying queueing process with information about which servers have been "perturbed" and by how much.
The issue of providing segment disclosures has renewed significance because the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) has been considering the extension of segment disclosures, both line-of-business (LOB) and geographically segmented (GEOG), to all interim financial statements. To determine whether GEOG data provide incremental information about the earnings process, the specific contribution of sales and income GEOG data was evaluated by estimating their predictive ability. Two sets of GEOG predictions were used in the predictive accuracy tests.
In this study we consider managerial earnings forecasts as voluntary information releases and compare their properties with predictions from a screening or signaling scenario.
Two methods are presented for estimating performance derivatives from simulation of multi-class queueing networks for sensitivity analysis. The methods use approximate subnetwork aggregation to reduce the problem to a single-class derivative estimation problem with which a modified infinitesimal perturbation analysis algorithm is used. The modified algorithm treats a subnetwork as though it had been aggregated, but is actually applied to the original (non-aggregated) network.
Knowledge of the one-month interest rate is useful in forecasting the sign as well as the variance of the excess return on stocks. The services of a portfolio manager who makes use of the forecasting model to shift funds between bills and stocks would be worth an annual management fee of 2 percent of the value of the assets managed. During 1954:4 to 1986:12, the variance of monthly returns on the managed portfolio was about 60 percent of the variance of the returns on the value weighted index, whereas the average return was two basis points higher.
This paper performs a financial statement analysis that combines a large set of financial statement items into one summary measure which indicates the direction of one-year-ahead earnings changes. Positions are taken in stocks on the basis of this measure during the period 1973–1983, which involve canceling long and short positions with zero net investment. The two-year holding-period return to the long and short positions is in the order of 12.5%. After adjustment for "size effects" the return is about 7.0%. These returns cannot be explained by nominated firm risk characteristics.
This paper examines the properties of a market solution to the output uncertainty problem faced by unincorporated primary producers. An insurance contract is formulated and shown to provide income insurance to producers without exposing insurers to moral hazard. The equilibrium relative to this contract is shown to be equivalent to that effected by a stock market available to all producers.
We examine two measures of monthly manufacturing production. The first is the index of industrial production; the second is constructed from the accounting identity that output equals sales plus the change in inventories. We show that the means, variances, and serial correlation coefficients of the log growth rates differ substantially between the two series, and the cross-correlations are in most cases less than 0.4.
This paper utilizes the concept of aggregative consistency defined in Rubinstein and Fishburn [1986], and the FASB's concept of representational faithfulness to evaluate foreign currency translation and accounting for changing prices as embodied in SFAS 70. The paper shows that SFAS 70 produces measurement errors and creates a foreign currency translation adjustment which does not reflect the effects of exchange rate changes. The conditions defined in the paper also facilitate an evaluation of the relative merits of restate/translate and translate/restate.
We consider a single-server queueing system with Poisson arrivals and general service times. While the server is up, it is subject to breakdowns according to a Poisson process. When the server breaks down, we may either repair the server immediately or postpone the repair until some future point in time. The operating costs to the system include customer holding costs, repair costs and running costs. The objective is to find a corrective maintenance policy which minimizes the long-run average operating costs of the system. The problem is formulated as a semi-Markov decision process.
No one has derived closed-form solutions for consumption with stochastic labor income and constant relative risk aversion utility. A numerical technique is used here to give an accurate approximation to the solution. The resulting consumption function is often dramatically different than the certainty equivalence solution typically used, in which consumption is proportional to the sum of financial wealth and the present value of expected future income.
This paper is motivated by two facts: failure of log-linear empirical exchange rate models of the 1970's and the observed variability of risk premiums in the forward market. Rational maximizing models predict that changes in conditional variances of monetary policies, government spendings, and income growths affect risk premiums and induce conditional volatility of exchange rates.
Several recent studies have suggested that empirical rejections of the permanent income/life cycle model might be due to the existence of liquidity constraints. This paper tests the permanent income hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis that consumers optimize subject to a well-specified sequence of borrowing constraints. Implications for consumption in the presence of borrowing constraints are derived and then tested using time-series/cross-section data on families from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
Trading on private information creates inefficiencies because there is less than optimal risk sharing. This occurs because the response of market makers to the existence of traders with private information is to reduce the liquidity of the market. The institution of the monopolist specialist may ease this inefficiency somewhat by increasing the liquidity of the market. While competing market makers will expect a zero profit on every trade, the monopolist will average his profits across trades. This implies a more liquid market when there is extensive trading on private information.
This paper describes efforts to validate a multiple car dispatch queueing (MCD) model of police patrol operations using New York City data. The MCD model was designed for use in a computer system that has been disseminated to many police departments in the U.S. to help planners allocate patrol cars among precincts. It has also been used to evalute specific changes in patrol policy in New York. We define validation as a series of hierarchical procedures ranging from tests of mathematical correctness to evaluations of model robustness.
This paper describes efforts to validate a multiple car dispatch queueing (MCD) model of police patrol operations using New York City data. The MCD model was designed for use in a computer system that has been disseminated to many police departments in the U.S. to help planners allocate patrol cars among precincts. It has also been used to evalute specific changes in patrol policy in New York. We define validation as a series of hierarchical procedures ranging from tests of mathematical correctness to evaluations of model robustness.
In this paper we show that information in prices that leads (future) earnings is contained in financial statements. While accrual accounting rules produce an earnings number which reflects the information in stock prices with a lag, they also produce a large array of additional numbers presented in the income statement, balance sheet, and statement of changes in financial position. We demonstrate that certain of these numbers can be summarized into one measure that predicts future earnings.
Patterns of optical flow produced at the eye of a moving observer are important for the guidance of locomotion. This study examined age-related changes in the ability to perceive one's direction of self-motion, or heading, from optical flow, using computer displays that simulate translational or curvilinear movement parallel to a random-dot ground surface.
This article looks at the alternative methods that can be employed by firms with regards to rewarding equity holders. Economists have long been puzzled by why firms pay dividends when alternative methods of rewarding shareholders and financiers exist which involve less taxes. Dividend paying equity appears to be the most heavily taxed capital instrument available. It is subject to two levels of taxation: first, the federal corporation income tax (set at a 34 percent marginal rate in the U.S. as of June 1989) and second, the personal income tax if the shares are owned by households.
Most U.S. corporations choose their fiscal years to coincide with the calendar year. We document that the larger the firm, the more likely it is to begin its fiscal year in January. This finding holds across industries.
In this article we construct a model in which a consumer's utility depends on the consumption history. We describe a general equilibrium framework similar to Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985a). A simple example is then solved in closed form in this general equilibrium setting to rationalize the observed stickiness of the consumption series relative to the fluctuations in stock market wealth. The sample paths of consumption generated from this model imply lower variability in consumption growth rates compared to those generated by models with separable utility functions.
The financial payback to the City of Boston from the development of Faneuil Hall Marketplace provides a starting point for analyzing the benefits of public-private downtown project development deals.
In this paper, we develop the control rules for job shop scheduling based on the Flow Rate Control model. We derive optimal control results for job shops with work station in series (transfer line). We use these results to derive rules which are suboptimal, robust against random events, and easy to implement and expand.
The PDF above is a preprint version of the article. The final version may be found at The Annals of Operations Research.
Cet article s'articule le long de trois thèmes progressant de la nécessité d'étudier en marketing les reactions affectives jusqu'á une mise en evidence des spécificités de leurs mesures.
The behavior of emerging market returns differs sharply from the behavior of developed equity market returns. While forecasts of expected returns and volatilities in emerging markets have been extensively studied, a paper focuses primarily on skewness and kurtosis. It is examined whether these moments have changed over time and what drives their cross-sectional variation. Finally, the implications for asset allocation are detailed.
A bilateral moral-hazard problem provides a rationale for "up-or-out" employment contracts. The employer sets a wage higher than opportunity cost to induce the worker to invest in firm-specific capital. If the individual does not make the grade, it is in the firm's interest ex post to fire him. Had the initial arrangement not included provisions for firing individuals, the firm would underreport the value of the employee, wrecking the incentive scheme. The basic model permits both firm and worker to be risk neutral.
This paper considers an M/G/c queueing system serving a finite number (J) of distinct customer classes. Performance of the system, as measured by the vector of steady-state expected waiting times of the customer classes (the performance vector), may be controlled by adopting an appropriate priority discipline.
We provide a deterministic example in which parties sign a contract which they anticipate will be subsequently renegotiated. The renegotiation is socially desirable. In the example, the cost of writing and enforcing contracts increases their complexity.
What are feasible paths of debt for a government that borrows either internally or externally? The question is suggested by recent concerns about the international debt crisis and high federal budget deficits in the U.S. In this paper, we analyze the benchmark case in which all market participants have perfect foresight, so that only risk-free lending is done. We study the conditions under which the borrower's opportunities include strategies with positive net present value.
A great deal of research on the empirical behavior of inventories examines some variant of the production smoothing model of finished goods inventories. The overall assessment of this model that exists in the literature is quite negative: there is little evidence that manufacturers hold inventories of finished goods in order to smooth production patterns. This paper examines whether this negative assessment of the model is due to one or both of two features: costs shocks and seasonal fluctuations.