Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
Additive synergies are contrasted with multiplicative ones in the context of post-acquisition patent content. Multiplicative-innovation synergies are indicated where a firm's prior-art patents were granted in technologies that are different than those of a focal patent's grant. Such content patterns suggest that inventors have searched to utilize technologies that are beyond locally-expected alternatives.
This article develops a model of optimal government debt maturity in which the government cannot issue state-contingent bonds and cannot commit to fiscal policy. If the government can perfectly commit, it fully insulates the economy against government spending shocks by purchasing short-term assets and issuing long-term debt. These positions are quantitatively very large relative to GDP and do not need to be actively managed by the government. Our main result is that these conclusions are not robust to the introduction of lack of commitment.
Today’s media landscape affords people access to richer information than ever before, with many individuals opting to consume content through social channels rather than traditional news sources. Although people frequent social platforms for a variety of reasons, we understand little about the consequences of encountering new information in these contexts, particularly with respect to how content is scrutinized.
In many industries, product design and manufacturing lead times are sufficiently long that both the quality level of a product and the amount of inventory produced must be determined before a firm knows what the actual demand will be. In this paper, we conduct a theoretical analysis of such a setting. We first consider a centralized channel and characterize the optimal decisions by establishing relationships that must hold between the elasticity of cost of quality and the elasticity of revenue and show that quality and inventory are strategic substitutes.
People are exposed to persuasive communication across many different contexts: Governments, companies, and political parties use persuasive appeals to encourage people to eat healthier, purchase a particular product, or vote for a specific candidate. Laboratory studies show that such persuasive appeals are more effective in influencing behavior when they are tailored to individuals' unique psychological characteristics. However, the investigation of large-scale psychological persuasion in the real world has been hindered by the questionnaire-based nature of psychological assessment.
In order for a patient to be discharged from a hospital unit, a physician must first perform a physical examination and review the pertinent medical information to determine that the patient is stable enough to be transferred to a lower level of care or be discharged home. Requiring an inspection of a patient's "readiness for discharge" introduces an interesting dynamic where patients may occupy a bed longer than medically necessary.
In order for a patient to be discharged from a hospital unit, a physician must first perform a physical examination and review the pertinent medical information to determine that the patient is stable enough to be transferred to a lower level of care or be discharged home. Requiring an inspection of a patient's "readiness for discharge" introduces an interesting dynamic where patients may occupy a bed longer than medically necessary.
This article investigates the cost and feasibility of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent from 2005 levels by 2050. The United States has stated in its Paris Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 submission that this is its aspiration. I suggest that this goal can be reached at a net cost in the range of $37 to $135 billion/year. I assume that the goal is to be reached by extensive use of solar photovoltaic and wind energy (66 percent of generating capacity), in which case the cost of energy storage will play a key role in the overall cost.
Human personality traits differ across geographical regions. However, it remains unclear what generates these geographical personality differences. Because humans constantly experience and react to ambient temperature, we propose that temperature is a crucial environmental factor that is associated with individuals' habitual behavioural patterns and, therefore, with fundamental dimensions of personality.
Patents have long been assumed to provide firms with competitive advantage, but longitudinal results suggest that some types of patent content provide more enduring advantage than others do. The duration of advantage appeared to wane with time in the highly-dynamic U.S. communications-services industry during a period when technological changes occurred rapidly within it (1998–2012).
We examine the mirror image of sustained competitive advantage, namely, sustainable competitive disadvantage. We begin by reviewing the theoretical and empirical literature on sustained competitive advantage. Our review suggests it's not just firms in superior positions that sustain their performance, but also firms in the remainder of the performance spectrum, including those occupying positions around and below the norm.
We find important differences in dollar-based and dollar-neutral G10 carry trades. Dollar-neutral trades have positive average returns, are highly negatively skewed, are correlated with risk factors, and exhibit considerable downside risk. In contrast, a diversified dollar-carry portfolio has a higher average excess return, a higher Sharpe ratio, minimal skewness, is unconditionally uncorrelated with standard risk-factors, and exhibits no downside risk.
We find important differences in dollar-based and dollar-neutral G10 carry trades. Dollar-neutral trades have positive average returns, are highly negatively skewed, are correlated with risk factors, and exhibit considerable downside risk. In contrast, a diversified dollar-carry portfolio has a higher average excess return, a higher Sharpe ratio, minimal skewness, is unconditionally uncorrelated with standard risk-factors, and exhibits no downside risk.
Consumer goods and services have psychological value that can equal or exceed their functional value. A burgeoning literature demonstrates that one source of value emerges from the capacity for products to serve as a psychological salve that reduces various forms of distress across numerous domains. This review systematically organizes and integrates the literature on the use of consumer behavior as a means to regulate self-discrepancies, or the incongruities between how one currently perceives oneself and how one desires to view oneself (Higgins, 1987).
Because of the unprecedented pace of globalization, foreign experiences are increasingly common and valued. Past research has focused on the benefits of foreign experiences, including enhanced creativity and reduced intergroup bias. In contrast, the present work uncovers a potential dark side of foreign experiences: increased immoral behavior. We propose that broad foreign experiences (i.e., experiences in multiple foreign countries) foster not only cognitive flexibility but also moral flexibility.
While it is generally believed that insulating cost allocations help managers focus their attention on their own actions and shield them from the actions of others, non-insulating schemes can have appeal by encouraging teamwork and/or mutual monitoring among divisions. In this paper, we demonstrate that non-insulating allocations can induce fruitful cooperation among parties even when teamwork and mutual monitoring are nonissues.
This paper aims to identify and discuss four major sources of power in negotiations: alternatives, information, status and social capital. Each of these sources of power can enhance a negotiator's likelihood of obtaining their ideal outcome because power allows negotiators to be more confident and proactive, and it shields them from the bargaining tactics of their opponents.
Contracts are commonly used to regulate a wide range of interactions and relationships. Yet relying on contracts as a mechanism of control often comes at a cost to motivation. Integrating theoretical perspectives from psychology, economics, and organizational theory, we explore this control-motivation dilemma inherent in contracts and present the Contract-Autonomy-Motivation-Performance-Structure (CAMPS) model, which highlights the synergistic benefits of combining structure and autonomy.
Women's underperformance in MBA programs has been the subject of recent debate and policy interventions, despite a lack of rigorous evidence documenting when and why it occurs. The current studies document a performance gap, specifying its contours and contributing factors. Two behaviors by female students that may factor into the gap are public conformity and private internalization.
Shopping is sometimes a source of stress, leading to avoidance coping behavior by consumers. Prior research suggests that store-induced stress makes shopping an adverse experience and thus negatively affects consumers' purchase likelihood. We propose that consumers' response to shopping stress depends on their motivational orientation. The greater the in-store stress, the more likely task-oriented consumers are to abandon the trip without making purchases. However, recreation-oriented consumers will be, up to a point, less likely to end the trip.
Background and objectives research suggests that altering situation-specific evaluations of stress as challenging versus threatening can improve responses to stress. The aim of the current study was to explore whether cognitive, physiological and affective stress responses can be altered independent of situation-specific evaluations by changing individuals mindsets about the nature of stress in general. Using a design, we experimentally manipulated stress mindset using multi-media film clips orienting participants to either the enhancing or debilitating nature of stress.
Rationale
Hospitals are increasingly using critical care outreach teams (CCOTs) to respond to patients deteriorating outside intensive care units (ICUs). CCOT staffing is variable across hospitals and optimal team composition is unknown.
Objectives
To assess whether adding a critical care medicine trained physician assistant (CCM-PA) to a critical care outreach team (CCOT) impacts clinical and process outcomes.
Methods
This research considers how marketers can encourage or 'nudge' consumers to transmit word of mouth (WOM), such as referrals or recommendations to friends, in a manner that helps reach, inform, or influence large numbers of consumers quickly, which is an outcome referred to as faster diffusion. Building on studies showing diffusion is faster when higher-connectivity people are involved; the authors propose a mechanism based on network externalities that encourages regular customers to select receivers who have higher levels of social connectivity.
We introduce a tractable dynamic monitoring technology into a continuous-time moral hazard problem and study the optimal long-term contract between principal and agent. Monitoring adds value by allowing the principal to reduce the intensity of performance-based incentives, reducing the likelihood of costly termination. We present a novel characterization of optimal dynamic incentive provision when performance-based incentives may decline continuously to zero. Termination happens in equilibrium only if its costs are relatively low.
We provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of economic and financial globalization on asset return comovements over the past 35 years. Our globalization indicators draw a distinction between de jure openness that results from changes in the regulatory environment and de facto or realized openness, as well as between capital market restrictions across different asset classes. Although globalization has trended positively for most of our sample, the global financial crisis and its aftermath have provided new headwinds.
We present a novel theory of the employment relationship. A manager can invest in attention technology to recognize good worker performance. The technology may break and is costly to replace. We show that as time passes without recognition, the worker's belief about the manager's technology worsens and his effort declines. The manager responds by investing, but this investment is insufficient to stop the decline in effort and eventually becomes decreasing. The relationship, therefore, continues deteriorating, and a return to high performance becomes increasingly unlikely.
While prior research has suggested that network-based hiring in the form of referrals can lead to better career outcomes, few studies have tested whether such career advantages differ across demographic groups. Using archival data from a single organization for nearly 16,000 employees over an 11-year period, the authors examine the effect of hiring by referrals on the number of promotions employees receive and the differences in this effect across demographic groups.
The premature cancer mortality rate has been declining in Switzerland, but there has been considerable variation in the rate of decline across cancer sites (e.g., breast or digestive organs). I analyze the effect that pharmaceutical innovation had on premature cancer mortality in Switzerland during the period 1995-2012 by investigating whether the cancer sites that experienced more pharmaceutical innovation had larger declines in premature mortality, controlling for the number of people diagnosed and mean age at diagnosis.
A monopolist offers a product to a market of consumers with heterogeneous quality preferences. Although initially uninformed about the product quality, they learn by observing past purchase decisions and reviews of other consumers. Our goal is to analyze the social learning mechanism and its effect on the seller's pricing decision. This analysis borrows from the literature on social learning and on pricing and revenue management.
In a single commodity setting with changing tastes, an individual's consumption plan can be obtained using naive or sophisticated choice. We provide two sufficient conditions for when (i) the solutions are unique and agree and (ii) the common plan is representable by a non-changing tastes utility. Because the solution is not revised over time, the plan and associated preferences are referred to as being effectively consistent. Afriat-style revealed preference tests are derived.
Cancer mortality declined in Belgium during the period 2004–2012, but there was considerable variation in the rate of decline across cancer sites (breast, lung, etc.). I analyze the effect that pharmaceutical innovation had on cancer mortality in Belgium, by investigating whether the cancer sites that experienced more pharmaceutical innovation had larger subsequent declines in mortality, controlling for changes in cancer incidence. The measures of mortality analyzed – premature (before ages 75 and 65) mortality rates and mean age at death – are not subject to lead-time bias.
This paper presents an Agentic-Communal Model of Power as a means to understand how power shapes and guides consumer behavior. We present theoretical arguments and review empirical data that reveal how the possession of power can produce a more agentic orientation within consumers, whereas the lack of power can produce a more communal orientation within consumers. As a consequence of either an increased agentic or communal orientation, psychological states of power and powerlessness affect a wide variety of consumer behaviors ranging from gift giving to persuasion to consumer misconduct.
People are more generous toward single than toward multiple beneficiaries, and encouraging greater giving to multiple targets is challenging. We identify one factor, perceived efficacy, which enhances generosity toward multiple beneficiaries. We investigate relationships between perceived self-efficacy (believing one can take steps to make an impact), response efficacy (believing those steps will be effective), and charitable giving.
Contemporary consumer behavior research largely conceptualizes post-decision evaluation processes in terms of decision confidence, anticipated regret and satisfaction, and decision and consumption satisfaction. The current research broadens this view, arguing that people additionally experience varying degrees of decision comfort that are distinct from other post-decision evaluations.
Investigations of the basic risk-return trade-off for the market return typically use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with a monthly or quarterly horizon and data sampled to match the horizon even though daily data are available. We develop an overlapping data inference methodology for such models that uses all of the data while maintaining the monthly or quarterly forecasting period. Our approach recognizes that the first order conditions of MLE can be used as orthogonality conditions of the generalized method of moments (GMM).
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign-currency-denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross-country correlations, and lower sensitivity to global risk factors.
This paper studies optimal communication flows in organizations. A production process can be coordinated ex ante, by letting agents stick to a prespecified plan of action. Alternatively, agents may adapt to task-specific shocks, in which case tasks must be coordinated ex post, using communication. When attention is scarce, an optimal organization coordinates only a few tasks ex post. Those tasks are higher performing, more adaptive to the environment, and influential. Hence, scarce attention requires setting priorities, not just local optimization.
This paper studies optimal communication flows in organizations. A production process can be coordinated ex ante, by letting agents stick to a prespecified plan of action. Alternatively, agents may adapt to task-specific shocks, in which case tasks must be coordinated ex post, using communication. When attention is scarce, an optimal organization coordinates only a few tasks ex post. Those tasks are higher performing, more adaptive to the environment, and influential. Hence, scarce attention requires setting priorities, not just local optimization.
Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the variance premium and the credit spread while controlling for the conditional variance, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that the variance premium contains a substantial amount of information about risk aversion whereas the credit spread has a lot to say about uncertainty.
Mainstream queueing models are frequently employed in modeling healthcare delivery in a number of settings, and further are used in making operational decisions for the same. The vast majority of these queueing models ignore the effects of delay experienced by a patient awaiting care. However, long delays may have adverse effects on patient outcomes and can potentially lead to longer lengths of stay (LOS) when the patient ultimately does receive care. This work sets out to understand these delay issues from an operational perspective.
We propose a model where investors can choose to acquire costly information that allows them to identify good assets and purchase them in opaque over the counter (OTC) markets. Uninformed investors trade on an organized exchange and only have access to an asset pool that has been (partially) cream-skimmed by informed dealers. We show that when the quality composition of assets for sale is fixed there is always too much information acquisition and cream skimming by dealers in equilibrium.
We propose a model where investors can choose to acquire costly information that allows them to identify good assets and purchase them in opaque over the counter (OTC) markets. Uninformed investors trade on an organized exchange and only have access to an asset pool that has been (partially) cream-skimmed by informed dealers. We show that when the quality composition of assets for sale is fixed there is always too much information acquisition and cream skimming by dealers in equilibrium.
The past decade has seen a rise in both economic insecurity and frequency of physical pain. The current research reveals a causal connection between these two growing and consequential social trends. In five studies, we found that economic insecurity produced physical pain and reduced pain tolerance. In a sixth study, with data from 33,720 geographically diverse households across the United States, economic insecurity predicted consumption of over-the-counter painkillers.
We consider a system of parallel queues where arriving service tasks are buffered, according to type. Available service resources are dynamically configured and allocated to the queues to process the tasks. At each point in time, a scheduler chooses a service configuration across the queues, in response to queue backlogs. Switching from one service configuration to another incurs a setup time, during which idling occurs and service bandwidth is lost. Such setup times are inherent in manufacturing and computer systems.
Measuring the impact of political risk on investment projects is one of the most vexing issues in international business. One popular approach is to assume that the sovereign yield spread captures political risk and to augment the project discount rate by this spread. We show that this approach is flawed. While the sovereign spread is influenced by political risk, it also reflects other risks that are likely included in the valuation analysis - leading to the double counting of risks.
Although it is known that certain names gain popularity within a culture because of historical events, it is unknown how names become associated with different social categories in the first place. We propose that vocal cord vibration during the pronunciation of an initial phoneme plays a critical role in explaining which names are assigned to males versus females.
Although it is known that certain names gain popularity within a culture because of historical events, it is unknown how names become associated with different social categories in the first place. We propose that vocal cord vibration during the pronunciation of an initial phoneme plays a critical role in explaining which names are assigned to males versus females.