Identity sequences and the early adoption pattern of a jazz canon, 1920–1929
Implicit Measures Reveal Evidence of Personal Discrimination
Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India
New goods play a central role in many trade and growth models. We use detailed trade and firm-level data from India to investigate the relationship between declines in trade costs, imports of intermediate inputs and domestic firm product scope. We estimate substantial gains from trade through access to new imported inputs. Moreover, we find that lower input tariffs account on average for 31 percent of the new products introduced by domestic firms.
Increasing or decreasing interest in activities: The role of regulatory fit
What makes people’s interest in doing an activity increase or decrease? Regulatory fit theory (E. T. Higgins, 2000) provides a new perspective on this classic issue by emphasizing the relation between people’s activity orientation, such as thinking of an activity as fun, and the manner of activity engagement that the surrounding situation supports.
Inflation and the Stock Market: Understanding the 'Fed Model'
The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks equals the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that they should be highly correlated. Indeed, there is a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation can be traced to the fact that both bond and equity yields comove strongly and positively with expected inflation.
Institutional Rivalry and the Entrepreneurial Strategy of Economic Development: Business Incubator Foundings in Three States
It is now widely accepted that the institutional interventions of states are a foundational influence on the dynamics of organizational forms. But why do states act? In this paper, we apply the behavioral theory of the firm to develop an explanation of state actions based on the fact that they are boundedly rational rivals. The instrument of state competition we examine is the founding of business incubators, a primary tool in the entrepreneurial strategy of economic development.
Inventory Management With an Exogenous Supply Process
Investment and market structure in industries with congestion
Is the Price of Money Managers Too Low?
Although established money managers operate in an environment which seems competitive, they also seem to be very profitable. The present value of the expected future profits from managing a collection of funds is equal to the value of the assets under management multiplied by the profit margin, assuming that the managed funds will remain in business forever, and that there will be zero asset flow into and out of the funds, zero excess returns net of trading costs, a fixed management fee proportional to the assets under management and a fixed profit margin for the management company.
Job search and unemployment insurance: New evidence from time use data
This paper provides new evidence on job search intensity of the unemployed in the U.S., modeling job search intensity as time allocated to job search activities. The major findings are: 1) the average U.S.
Lateral prefrontal cortex and self-control in intertemporal choice
Leaving a legacy: Intergenerational allocations of benefits and burdens
In six experiments, we investigated the role of resource valence in intergenerational attitudes and allocations. We found that, compared to benefits, allocating burdens intergenerationally increased concern with one's legacy, heightened ethical concerns, intensified moral emotions (e.g., guilt, shame), and led to feelings of greater responsibility for and affinity with future generations. We argue that, because of greater concern with legacies and the associated moral implications of one's decisions, allocating burdens leads to greater intergenerational generosity as compared to benefits.
Local Response to Fiscal Incentives in Heterogeneous Communities
I examine the impact of a property tax relief program in New York State that lowered the marginal cost of school expenditure to homeowners. I find that a typical school district, which received 20% of its revenue through the program in the school year 2001–2002, raised expenditure by 4.1% and local property taxes by 6.8% in response to the program. I then examine how the preferences of various groups of local taxpayers affect educational spending by identifying systematic variation across districts in the response to fiscal incentives.
Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option
Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three.
Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing
Male susceptibility to attentional capture by power cues
The present investigation explores the possibility that power has increased salience among males but not females. Evidence indicates that stimuli that are self-relevant or related to chronic goals are more likely to capture attention than neutral information. Across three studies we explore the possibility that the premium males place on power influences how they attend to their environment.
Marketing Competition in the 21st Century
The new challenges that the 21st century brings to the field of marketing competition inspired the International Journal of Research in Marketing (IJRM) to sponsor a special section on the topic. This special section was preceded by a conference at the University of Mainz, co-sponsored by IJRM, MSI, SMU (Singapore) and the University of Mainz.
Five marked evolutions around the turn of the century present new challenges in marketing competition, which may lead to particularly fruitful streams of research.
Matching versus mismatching cultural norms in performance appraisal: Effects of the cultural setting and bicultural identity integration
The present study examined how biculturals (Asian-Americans) adjust to differing cultural settings in performance appraisal. Biculturals vary in the degree to which their two cultural identities are compatible or oppositional — Bicultural Identity Integration (BII). The authors found that individual differences in BII interacted with the manipulation of the cultural setting (American or Asian) in determining whether employee outcomes were evaluated as matching or mismatching cultural norms.
Mentoring nontraditional undergraduate students: A case study in higher education
Multi-product Firms and Product Turnover in the Developing World: Evidence from India
Recent theoretical work predicts that an important margin of adjustment to deregulation or trade reforms is the reallocation of output within firms through changes in their product mix. Empirical work has accordingly shifted its focus towards multi-product firms and their product mix decisions. Existing studies have however focused exclusively on the U.S.
On-the-job search and wage dispersion: New evidence from time use data
This paper provides new evidence on time devoted to job search by the employed in the U.S. I find that search effort decreases with the current wage, with an elasticity between −0.7 and −1.3.
The PDF above is a preprint version of the article. The final version may be found at < http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.08.034 >.
Ownership Coordination in a Channel: Incentives, Returns, and Negotiations
Particle Learning and Smoothing
Particle learning (PL) provides state filtering, sequential parameter learning and smoothing in a general class of state space models. Our approach extends existing particle methods by incorporating the estimation of static parameters via a fully-adapted filter that utilizes conditional sufficient statistics for parameters and/or states as particles. State smoothing in the presence of parameter uncertainty is also solved as a by-product of PL. In a number of examples, we show that PL outperforms existing particle filtering alternatives and proves to be a competitor to MCMC.
Payoff Complementarities and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Mutual Fund Outflows
The paper provides empirical evidence that strategic complementarities among investors generate fragility in financial markets. Analyzing mutual fund data, we find that, consistent with a theoretical model, funds with illiquid assets (where complementarities are stronger) exhibit stronger sensitivity of outflows to bad past performance than funds with liquid assets. We also find that this pattern disappears in funds where the shareholder base is composed mostly of large investors.
Perception through a perspective-taking lens: Differential effects on judgment and behavior
In contrast to the view that social perception has symmetric effects on judgments and behavior, the current research explored whether perspective-taking leads stereotypes to differentially affect judgments and behavior. Across three studies, perspective-takers consistently used stereotypes more in their own behavior while simultaneously using them less in their judgments of others. After writing about an African-American, perspective-taking tendencies were positively correlated with aggressive behavior but negatively correlated with judging others as aggressive.
Perspectives on the Ecology of Decision Modes: Reply to Comments
Pharmaceutical Price Discrimination and Social Welfare
Price discrimination is an extremely common type of pricing strategy engaged in by virtually every business with some discretionary pricing power. The issue of whether price discrimination reduces or increases social welfare has been considered by economists since at least 1920. At that time, it was demonstrated that, under certain (restrictive) conditions, price discrimination will reduce social welfare.
Power increases hypocrisy: Moralizing in reasoning, immorality in behavior
Five studies explored whether power increases moral hypocrisy, a situation characterized by imposing strict moral standards on others but practicing less strict moral behavior oneself. In Experiment 1, compared to the powerless, the powerful condemned other people's cheating, while cheating more themselves. In Experiments 2–4, the powerful were more strict in judging others' moral transgressions but more lenient in judging their own transgressions.
Power Posing: Brief Nonverbal Displays Cause Changes in Neuroendocrine Levels and Risk Tolerance
Preface to the Special Issue on Computational Economics
Economics is the study of how scarce resources are allocated. Operations research studies how to accomplish goals in the least costly manner. These fields have much to offer each other in terms of challenging problems that need to be solved and the techniques to solve them. This was the case after World War II, partly because the individuals who went on to be the leading scholars in economics and operations research worked together during WWII. In fact, the two fields share many early luminaries, including Arrow, Dantzig, Holt, Kantorovich, Koopmans, Modigliani, Scarf, and von Neumann.
Preferred Risk Habitat of Individual Investors
The preferred risk habitat hypothesis, introduced here, is that individual investors select stocks whose volatilities are commensurate with their risk aversion. The data, 1995-2000 holdings of over 20,000 clients at a large German broker, are consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis: the portfolios contain highly similar stocks in terms of volatility, when stocks are sold they are replaced by stocks of similar volatilities, and the more risk averse customers indeed hold and trade into less volatile stocks.
Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing
Professed impressions: What people say about others affects onlookers' perceptions of speakers' power and warmth
During a conversation, it is common for a speaker to describe a third-party that the listener does not know. These professed impressions not only shape the listener's view of the third-party but also affect judgments of the speaker herself. We propose a previously unstudied consequence of professed impressions: judgments of the speaker's power. In two studies, we find that listeners ascribe more power to speakers who profess impressions focusing on a third-party's conscientiousness, compared to those focusing on agreeableness.
Reassessing the Fed's Regulatory Role
As we contemplate the raft of regulatory reforms currently being proposed, it is important not only to consider the content of regulation, but also its structure. In particular, it is important to ask how the role of the Fed as a regulator should change, and how the targets and the tools of monetary and regulatory policy should adapt to new regulatory mandates. For example, some reform proposals envision a dramatic expansion of Fed regulatory authority, while others do not, and some proposals envision the Fed's using monetary policy to prick asset bubbles, while others do not.
Recursive equilibrium in stochastic overlapping-generations economies
We prove generic existence of recursive equilibrium for overlapping generations economies with uncertainty. "Generic" here means in a residual set of utilities and endowments. The result holds provided there is sufficient intragenerational household heterogeneity.
Regulation 3.0 for Telecom 3.0
Telecommunications infrastructure goes through technology-induced phases, and the regulatory regime follows. Telecom 1.0, based on copper wires, was monopolistic in market structure and led to a Regulation 1.0 with government ownership or control. Wireless long-distance and then mobile technologies enabled the opening of that system to one of multi-carrier provision, with Regulation 2.0 stressing privatization, entry, liberalization, and competition. But now, fiber and high-capacity wireless are raising scale economies and network effects, leading to a more concentrated market.
Revenue Management with Strategic Customers: Last-Minute Selling and Opaque Selling
Companies in a variety of industries (e.g., airlines, hotels, theaters) often use last-minute sales to dispose of unsold capacity. Although this may generate incremental revenues in the short term, the long-term consequences of such a strategy are not immediately obvious: More discounted last-minute tickets may lead to more consumers anticipating the discount and delaying the purchase rather than buying at the regular (higher) prices, hence potentially reducing revenues for the company.
Risk and Return Characteristics of Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurial Companies
Valuations of entrepreneurial companies are only observed occasionally, albeit more frequently for well-performing companies. Consequently, estimators of risk and return must correct for sample selection to obtain consistent estimates. We develop a general model of dynamic sample selection and estimate it using data from venture capital investments in entrepreneurial companies. Our selection correction leads to markedly lower intercepts and higher estimates of risks compared to previous studies.
Risk attitude and preference
Searching for Effective Teachers with Imperfect Information
Teaching may be the most-scrutinized occupation in the economy. Over the past four decades, empirical researchers—many of them economists—have accumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers: the heterogeneity in teacher productivity, the rise in productivity associated with teaching credentials and on-the-job experience, rates of turnover, the costs of recruitment, the relationship between supply and quality, the effect of class size and the monetary value of academic achievement gains over a student's lifetime.
Short Run Impacts of Accountability on School Quality
In November of 2007, the New York City Department of Education assigned each elementary and middle school a letter grade (A to F) as part of a new accountability system. Grades were based on continuous numeric scores derived from levels and changes in student achievement and other school environmental factors such as attendance, and were linked to a system of rewards and consequences for schools and principals. We use the discontinuities in the assignment of grades to estimate the impact of accountability in the short run.
Signaling Firm Value to Active Investors
Active investors provide entrepreneurs with risk-sharing and value-adding effort, e.g., in form of advising, networking and monitoring. However, holdup problems may create a conflict between two key objectives for high-quality entrepreneurs: to elicit investor effort and to credibly signal their firm type by retaining shares. As a result, pooling of startup firms of different types may arise, in particular when investor effort is essential. More established firms, with access to multiple signals, can always realize both of these objectives.
Stated Intentions and Purchase Behavior: A Unified Model
Structural estimation of the effect of stock-outs
Subjective and Objective Evaluations of Teacher Effectiveness
In this paper, we measure the extent to which subjective and objective evaluations of new teachers in New York City can predict their future impacts on student achievement. Specifically, we examine evaluations of applicants to an alternative certification program, evaluations of new teachers by mentors that work with them during their first year, and evaluations based on student achievement data from their first year of teaching. We use a large sample, relative to prior work, and, unlike other studies (with the exception of John H. Tyler et al.
Testing the Validity of a Demand Model: An Operations Perspective
The fields of statistics and econometrics have developed powerful methods for testing the validity (specification) of a model based on its fit to underlying data. Unlike statisticians, managers are typically more interested in the performance of a decision rather than the statistical validity of the underlying model. We propose a framework and a statistical test that incorporates decision performance into a measure of statistical validity. Under general conditions on the objective function, asymptotic behavior of our test admits a sharp and simple characterization.
The "Dominant Bank Effect": How High Lender Reputation Affects the Information Content and Terms of Bank Loans
The accentuation bias: Money literally looms larger (and sometimes smaller) to the powerless
The present research explores how people's place in a power hierarchy alters their representations of valued objects. The authors hypothesized that powerlessness produces an accentuation bias by altering the physical representation of monetary objects in a manner consistent with the size-to-value relationship. In the first three experiments, powerless participants, induced through episodic priming or role manipulations, systematically overestimated the size of objects associated with monetary value (i.e., quarters, poker chips) compared to powerful and baseline participants.
The Chilling Effects of Network Externalities
The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements
We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and their time variation using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing a semistructural regime-switching model for state variables such as interest rates, inflation, the output gap, and cash flow growth. We also view risk aversion, uncertainty about inflation and output, and liquidity proxies as additional potential factors.