Abstract
Assessment of the impact that pharmaceutical innovation (the Russian launch of new cancer drugs) and cancer incidence had on cancer mortality in Russia during the period 2001–2011.
Investigation of whether the decline in mortality was greater for cancer sites (breast, lung, colon, etc.) subject to more pharmaceutical innovation and greater declines in incidence.
All of the measures of cancer mortality analyzed – the age-standardized mortality rate and the number of years of potential life lost before ages 75 and 65 are significantly inversely related to the number of new drugs that had been launched 6 or 7 years earlier. (As utilization of drugs is quite low during the first few years after launch, it is not surprising that mortality is not significantly related to the most recent drug launches.) New drugs launched during 1995–2004 are estimated to have reduced the age-standardized cancer mortality rate by 9.5% between 2001 and 2011, that is at an average annual rate of about 1.0%. New drugs launched during 1995–2004 accounted for almost all (94%) of the 2001–2011 reduction in the age-standardized mortality rate. On average, the launch of one additional drug for a cancer site is estimated to have reduced the number of years of potential life lost before age 75 due to cancer at that site 7 years later by 8406, and the number of years of potential life lost before age 65 due to cancer at that site 7 years later by 4152.
The 14 new drugs launched during 1995–2004 are estimated to have reduced the number of years of potential life lost before age 75 in 2011 by 243 774. The estimated cost per life-year gained in 2011 was 2170 USD. This was about 15% of Russia's per capita GDP, and the World Health Organization considers interventions whose cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained is less than per capita GDP to be ‘very cost-effective’.