In an AP News story, Columbia Business School economist Brett House explains why airfares haven't followed jet fuel prices since the Iran war began. Jet fuel jumped to $4.88 a gallon in early April, fell to $2.70 in June, then climbed back to $4.53 by mid-September. Average domestic fares rose the whole time, from $405 in late 2025 to $436 in the second quarter of 2026. House says part of the reason is timing. Airlines plan flights and seat counts months in advance and start selling tickets even earlier, so they can't raise prices on seats they've already sold when fuel spikes. "It's not just the level of fuel costs that is a problem or a challenge for airlines," he said. "It's also the volatility." Carriers including United, American, and Southwest are cutting less profitable routes, and Hopper reports holiday fares at a 10-year high. House expects little relief: "The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months."
