Abstract
We analyze the performance of an importance sampling estimator for a rare-event probability in tandem Jackson networks. The rare event we consider corresponds to the network population reaching K before returning to ø, starting from ø, with K large. The estimator we study is based on interchanging the arrival rate and the smallest service rate and is therefore a generalization of the asymptotically optimal estimator for an M/M/1 queue. We examine its asymptotic performance for large K, showing that in certain parameter regions the estimator has an asymptotic efficiency property, but that in other regions it does not. The setting we consider is perhaps the simplest case of a rare-event simulation problem in which boundaries on the state space play a significant role.