We develop a financial-economic model for carbon pricing with an explicit representation of decision making under risk and uncertainty that is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We find that this approach provides economic support for the warming targets in the Paris Agreement across a variety of specifications. We show that risk associated with high damages in the long term leads to stringent mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions in the near term. Our results provide insight into how a systematic incorporation of climate-related risk influences ‘optimal’ emissions abatement pathways.

Gernot Wagner, Adam Michael Bauer, and Cristian Proistosescu
Working Paper
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Wagner, Gernot, Adam Michael Bauer, and Cristian Proistosescu
. Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset . February 10, 2023.