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Gernot Wagner

Gernot Wagner
Senior Lecturer in Discipline of Economics in the Faculty of Business
Economics Division
Faculty Fellow
CESifo
Board Member
CarbonPlan
Columnist
Project Syndicate
Senior Fellow
Jain Family Institute
Areas of Expertise
Climate
Contact
Office: 392 Kravis
Phone: (212) 8534096
E-mail: [email protected]
Links
Personal Website
Curriculum Vitae

Gernot Wagner is a climate economist at Columbia Business School. His research, writing, and teaching focus on climate risks and climate policy.

Gernot writes a monthly column for Project Syndicate and has written four books: Geoengineering: the Gamble, published by Polity (2021); Stadt, Land, Klima (“City, Country, Climate”), published, in German, by Brandstätter Verlag (2021); Climate Shock, joint with Harvard’s Martin Weitzman and published by Princeton (2015), among others, a Top 15 Financial Times McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2015, and Austria’s Natural Science Book of the Year 2017; and But will the planet notice?, published by Hill & Wang/Farrar Strauss & Giroux (2011).

Prior to joining Columbia as senior lecturer and serving as faculty director of the Climate Knowledge Initiative, Gernot taught at NYU, Harvard, and Columbia. He was the founding executive director of Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program (2016 – 2019), and served as economist at the Environmental Defense Fund (2008 – 2016), most recently as lead senior economist (2014 – 2016) and member of its Leadership Council (2015 – 2016). He has been a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, and is a CESifo Research Network Fellow, a Faculty Affiliate at the Columbia Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, a Member of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a Coordinating Lead Author of the Austrian Panel on Climate Change, and he serves on the board of CarbonPlan.org.

Born and raised in Amstetten, Austria, Gernot graduated from high school in his hometown before moving to the U.S. for college. He holds a joint bachelor’s magna cum laude with highest honors in environmental science, public policy, and economics, and a master’s and Ph.D. in political economy and government from Harvard, as well as a master’s in economics from Stanford.

Follow Gernot on Mastodon (skip Twitter, at least for now), or sign up for email updates.

Education
Joined CBS
2022

Featured Research

Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset

Authors
Adam Michael Bauer, Cristian Proistosescu, and Gernot Wagner
Date
July 20, 2023
Format
Working Paper

We develop a financial-economic model for carbon pricing with an explicit representation of decision making under risk and uncertainty that is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We show that risk associated with high damages in the long term leads to stringent mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions in the near term, and find that this approach provides economic support for stringent warming targets across a variety of specifications.

Read More about Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset

Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

Authors
Simon Dietz, James Rising, Thomas Stoerk, and Gernot Wagner
Date
August 24, 2021
Format
Journal Article
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure.

Read More about Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

Declining CO₂ price paths

Authors
Kent Daniel, Robert B. Litterman, and Gernot Wagner
Date
October 1, 2019
Format
Journal Article
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Pricing greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions involves making tradeoffs between consumption today and unknown damages in the (distant) future. While decision making under risk and uncertainty is the forte of financial economics, important insights from pricing financial assets do not typically inform standard climate–economy models. Here, we introduce EZ-Climate, a simple recursive dynamic asset pricing model that allows for a calibration of the carbon dioxide (CO2) price path based on probabilistic assumptions around climate damages.

Read More about Declining CO₂ price paths

Climate Shock

Authors
Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman
Date
April 19, 2016
Format
Book
Publisher
Princeton University Press

Top 15 Financial Times McKinsey Business Book of 2015Climate Shock

Read More about Climate Shock

All Activities

  • Research
  • Teaching
  • Awards and Honors
  • Press
  • Journal articles
  • Working papers
  • Articles
  • Books
  • Chapters
Type
Journal Article
Wagner, Gernot and Daniel Zizzamia
. “Green Moral Hazards.”
Ethics, Policy & Environment
vol.
25
, no.
3
(September 08, 2022):
264
-
280
. doi:
10.1080/21550085.2021.1940449
Read More about Green Moral Hazards
Type
Journal Article
Stavins, Robert N. and Gernot Wagner
. “Martin Weitzman: A Gift that Keeps on Giving.”
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
vol.
9
, no.
5
(September 01, 2022):
843
-
850
. doi:
10.1086/721093
Read More about Martin Weitzman: A Gift that Keeps on Giving
Type
Journal Article
Kanter, David R., Claudia Wagner-Riddle, Peter M. Groffman, Eric A. Davidson, James N. Galloway, Jesse D. Gourevitch, Hans J. M. van Grinsven, Benjamin Z. Houlton, Bonnie L. Keeler, Stephen M. Ogle, Holly Pearen, Kevin J. Rennert, Mustafa Saifuddin, Daniel J. Sobota, and Gernot Wagner
. “Improving the social cost of nitrous oxide.”
Nature Climate Change
(November 17, 2021).doi:
10.1038/s41558-021-01226-z
Read More about Improving the social cost of nitrous oxide
Type
Journal Article
Aldy, Joseph E., Tyler Felgenhauer, William A. Pizer, Massimo Tavoni, Mariia Belaia, Mark E. Borsuk, Arunabha Ghosh, Garth Heutel, Daniel Heyen, Joshua Horton, David Keith, Christine Merk, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Jesse L. Reynolds, Katharine Ricke, Wilfried Rickels, Soheil Shayegh, Wake Smith, Simone Tilmes, Gernot Wagner, and Jonathan B. Wiener
. “Social science research to inform solar geoengineering.”
Science
vol.
374
, (November 12, 2021):
6569
.doi:
10.1126/science.abj6517
Read More about Social science research to inform solar geoengineering
Type
Journal Article
Behrer, A. Patrick, R. Jisung Park, Gernot Wagner, Colleen M. Golja, and David W. Keith
. “Heat has larger impacts on labor in poorer areas.”
Environmental Research Communications
vol.
3
, no.
9
(September 15, 2021).doi:
10.1088/2515-7620/abffa3
Read More about Heat has larger impacts on labor in poorer areas
Type
Journal Article
Dietz, Simon, James Rising, Thomas Stoerk, and Gernot Wagner
. “Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
(August 24, 2021).doi:
10.1073/pnas.2103081118
Read More about Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system
Type
Journal Article
Wagner, Gernot, David Anthoff, Maureen Cropper, Simon Dietz, Kenneth T. Gillingham, Ben Groom, J. Paul Kelleher, Frances C. Moore, and James H. Stock
. “Eight priorities for calculating the social cost of carbon.”
Nature
vol.
590
, (February 25, 2021):
548
-
550
. doi:
10.1038/d41586-021-00441-0
Read More about Eight priorities for calculating the social cost of carbon
Type
Journal Article
Proistosescu, Cristian and Gernot Wagner
. “Uncertainties in Climate and Weather Extremes Increase the Cost of Carbon.”
One Earth
vol.
1
, no.
6
(June 19, 2020):
515
-
517
. doi:
10.1016/j.oneear.2020.06.002
Read More about Uncertainties in Climate and Weather Extremes Increase the Cost of Carbon
Type
Journal Article
Camuzeaux, Jonathan, Thomas Sterner, and Gernot Wagner
. “India in the coming ‘climate G2’?”
National Institute Economic Review
vol.
251
, (February 06, 2020):
R3
-
R12
.
Read More about India in the coming ‘climate G2’?
Type
Journal Article
Daniel, Kent, Robert B. Litterman, and Gernot Wagner
. “Declining CO₂ price paths.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
(October 01, 2019).doi:
10.1073/pnas.1905755116
Read More about Declining CO₂ price paths
Type
Working Paper
Bauer, Adam Michael, Cristian Proistosescu, and Gernot Wagner
. Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset . July 20, 2023.
Read More about Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Carbon Capture and Delay.”
Project Syndicate
. August 10, 2023.
Read More about Carbon Capture and Delay
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “What the Climate Fight Is Really About.”
Project Syndicate
. July 17, 2023.
Read More about What the Climate Fight Is Really About
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “We Can’t Prevent All Wildfires. But We Can Learn From the Ones Burning Now.”
Barron's
. June 08, 2023.
Read More about We Can’t Prevent All Wildfires. But We Can Learn From the Ones Burning Now.
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Komanoff, Charles and Gernot Wagner
. “There’s Only One Way to Fix New York’s Traffic Gridlock.”
New York Times
. June 08, 2023.
Read More about There’s Only One Way to Fix New York’s Traffic Gridlock
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “How to Think About Climate-Tech Solutions.”
Project Syndicate
. June 07, 2023.
Read More about How to Think About Climate-Tech Solutions
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot and Danny Cullenward
. “Get tax credits right to make clean hydrogen a boon not a boondoggle.”
Washington Post
. April 27, 2023.
Read More about Get tax credits right to make clean hydrogen a boon not a boondoggle
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Europe Must Tax Brown and Subsidize Green.”
Project Syndicate
. April 06, 2023.
Read More about Europe Must Tax Brown and Subsidize Green
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot and Julio Friedmann
. “3 ways to spend Biden’s clean-energy windfall faster.”
Washington Post
. March 03, 2023.
Read More about 3 ways to spend Biden’s clean-energy windfall faster
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Can geoengineering slow climate change? We need research to find out.”
Washington Post
. February 22, 2023.
Read More about Can geoengineering slow climate change? We need research to find out.
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Greenberg, Paul and Gernot Wagner
. “Our City Could Become One of the World’s Greenest, but It Won’t Be Easy.”
New York Times
. February 07, 2023.
Read More about Our City Could Become One of the World’s Greenest, but It Won’t Be Easy
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Realism About Techno-Optimism.”
Project Syndicate
. January 26, 2023.
Read More about Realism About Techno-Optimism
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Meyer, Timothy, Gernot Wagner, and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse
. “The Case for Mandating Climate-Risk Disclosure.”
Project Syndicate
. November 24, 2022.
Read More about The Case for Mandating Climate-Risk Disclosure
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Who Pays for Climate Change?”
Project Syndicate
. November 16, 2022.
Read More about Who Pays for Climate Change?
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “The Risky Language of Climate Uncertainty.”
OpenMind
. October 27, 2022.
Read More about The Risky Language of Climate Uncertainty
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot and Tom Brookes
. “The High Stakes of Climate-Risk Accounting.”
Project Syndicate
. September 28, 2022.
Read More about The High Stakes of Climate-Risk Accounting
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot and Matthew Lewis
. “The Next Step on Climate Action: Parking Reform.”
Bloomberg CityLab + Green
. September 22, 2022.
Read More about The Next Step on Climate Action: Parking Reform
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot and Wolfram Schlenker
. “Declining crop yields limit the potential of bioenergy.”
Nature
. September 07, 2022.
Read More about Declining crop yields limit the potential of bioenergy
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “The Clean-Energy Race Is On.”
Project Syndicate
. August 15, 2022.
Read More about The Clean-Energy Race Is On
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Greening Your Home Will Be Cheaper, but Expect Growing Pains.”
New York Times
. August 12, 2022.
Read More about Greening Your Home Will Be Cheaper, but Expect Growing Pains
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Climate risk is financial risk.”
Science
. June 09, 2022.
Read More about Climate risk is financial risk
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “New Energy Imperative.”
IMF Finance & Development
. June 02, 2022.
Read More about New Energy Imperative
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Is Nuclear Power Part of the Climate Solution?”
Wall Street Journal
. January 07, 2022.
Read More about Is Nuclear Power Part of the Climate Solution?
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “How individual actions can combat climate change.”
The Economist
. November 10, 2021.
Read More about How individual actions can combat climate change
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “How I Greened My Prewar Co-op.”
Curbed/New York Magazine
. August 12, 2021.
Read More about How I Greened My Prewar Co-op
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Cheaper solar PV is key to addressing climate change.”
MIT Technology Review
. June 30, 2021.
Read More about Cheaper solar PV is key to addressing climate change
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Brookes, Tom and Gernot Wagner
. “Economics Needs a Climate Revolution.”
Project Syndicate
. June 28, 2021.
Read More about Economics Needs a Climate Revolution
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “The Climate Tipping Point We Want.”
Project Syndicate
. May 04, 2021.
Read More about The Climate Tipping Point We Want
Type
Newspaper/Magazine Article
Wagner, Gernot
. “Recalculate the social cost of carbon.”
Nature Climate Change
. March 29, 2021.
Read More about Recalculate the social cost of carbon
Type
Book
Wagner, Gernot
. Geoengineering: the Gamble. 
London, UK
:
Polity
, 2021.
Read More about Geoengineering: the Gamble
Type
Book
Wagner, Gernot
. Stadt, Land, Klima. 
Wien
:
Brandstätter Verlag
, 2021.
Read More about Stadt, Land, Klima
Type
Book
Wagner, Gernot and Martin L. Weitzman
. Climate Shock. 
Princeton, NJ
:
Princeton University Press
, 2016.
Read More about Climate Shock
  • Courses
  • Case Studies
Type
Course
B8201: Climate Change and the Energy Transition
View Course on Climate Change and the Energy Transition
Type
Course
B8212: Climate Policy
View Course on Climate Policy
Type
Course
B8705: Business and Climate Change
View Course on Business and Climate Change
Type
Case Study
Wagner, Gernot
. Decarbonizing voestalpine High-Performance Metal. 
New York, NY
:
Columbia CaseWorks
, 2023.
Read More about Decarbonizing voestalpine High-Performance Metal
Type
Case Study
Wagner, Gernot
. Clean Core Thorium Energy and the Role of Nuclear Power in the Low-carbon Transition. 
New York, NY
:
Columbia CaseWorks
, 2023.
Read More about Clean Core Thorium Energy and the Role of Nuclear Power in the Low-carbon Transition
Type
Case Study
Wagner, Gernot and Bruce Usher
. The Cost to Achieve Net-Zero . 
New York, NY
:
Columbia CaseWorks
, 2022.
Read More about The Cost to Achieve Net-Zero
  • Awards & Honors
  • In the Media
  • Ideas
  • Research In Brief
  • Press Releases
Type
In the Media

Business Leaders Know the Climate Status Quo Is Untenable

Bloomberg News
Type
In the Media

Climate Bill Said to Put Emission Goals in 'Striking Distance'

Roll Call
Type
In the Media

Europe's Battle Over "Green" Natural Gas

Axios
Type
In the Media

How Extreme Weather Has Created a Disaster for School Infrastructure

The Washington Post
Type
In the Media

The Right Way to Help People Hurting from High Energy Prices

Bloomberg News
Type
In the Media

The Supreme Court's EPA Ruling Is a Big Setback for Fighting Climate Change, but Not a Death Knell

CNBC
Type
In the Media

Europe Must Tax Brown and Subsidize Green

Project Syndicate
Type
In the Media

The Race to Decarbonize America Needs More Workers

Wired
Type
In the Media

Will the Banking Busts Hurt Clean Tech?

Project Syndicate
Type
In the Media

What Is Geoengineering, and Why Is It Sparking Climate Change Debate?

Scripps News
Type
In the Media

Gov. Hochul’s State Budget Prioritizes Climate Fixes — but Will It Be Enough?

Gothamist
Type
In the Media

Mayor Adams' Record-breaking $102B Budget Paints a Foggy Future for Climate Initiatives

WYNC/Gothamist
Type
In the Media

Daily on Energy: Environmentalist court losses against the administration, and the road ahead

Washington Examiner
Type
In the Media

How a Debt-Ceiling Default Would Derail the Energy Transition

Semafor
Type
In the Media

Weeks of Extreme Heat Strain Small Businesses and Economy

Wall Street Journal
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