Abstract
This study provides econometric evidence about the impact that new chemical entity (NCE) launches had on premature mortality from 17 diseases in 9 Middle Eastern and African countries during the period 2007–2015.
The greater the relative number of NCEs for a disease launched in a country, the greater the subsequent relative decline in premature mortality from that disease, controlling for the average rate of mortality decline in each country and from each disease.
An 8-year increase in the number of post-1992 NCEs ever launched is estimated to have reduced the number of years of potential life lost before age 75 (YPLL75) in 2015 by 9.5 %. This is approximately half of the 18.9 % reduction in YPLL75, and about one-third of the 29.7 % reduction in the premature mortality rate. In the absence of 8 previous years of NCE launches, 2.80 million additional YPLL before age 75 would have been lost in 2015.
Expenditure on new drugs per life-year below age 75 gained in 2015 from the drugs was $US 834. According to the standards of the WHO’s Choosing Interventions that are cost–effective project, new drugs launched in the nine ME&A countries were very cost–effective overall.