Abstract
Major life transitions, such as pregnancy and childbirth, reshape lifestyles and purchasing priorities, yet causal evidence on how consumers reallocate spending across product categories remains limited. We quantify the effects of first-time parenthood by linking a large-scale transactional panel to verified birth records. To identify causal effects, we implement a difference-in-differences design augmented with causal forests, enabling flexible comparisons between households entering parenthood and carefully matched controls. We uncover a pronounced and dynamic behavioral trajectory. Spending and trip frequency decline early in pregnancy, rebound late in gestation, and increase sharply after childbirth. Post-childbirth, supermarket spending and ticket size rise by approximately 20–25%, accompanied by a 10% increase in promotional reliance and a systematic reallocation away from discretionary categories (e.g., dining, travel, beauty, pets) toward health- and family-oriented goods (e.g., fresh foods, yogurt, pharmacy items, baby products). Reduced leisure and personal-care spending is offset by higher expenditures on essential household categories, indicating lifestyle adaptation rather than uniform budget tightening. Heterogeneity is substantial: effects are larger among younger parents and households with higher baseline spending. These results identify childbirth as a major inflection point in consumer behavior and offer actionable guidance for retailers.