- When people participate in a climate prediction market—where they bet on future climate-related outcomes and earn money when they are correct—they become more concerned about climate issues, supportive of climate action, and knowledgeable about climate change.
- Climate prediction markets can also act as a polling mechanism, helping scientists, activists, and politicians to accurately aggregate public opinion about trends, policy preferences, risks, and future scientific predictions at any point in time.
- Climate prediction markets offer a way to infuse private money into climate efforts—where money earned through betting can be used to subsidize important policies that help combat climate change.
- Beyond climate, prediction markets can be used to influence knowledge and understanding of other controversial topics, allowing people to reflect their views, anonymously, through market economics rather than publicly stated opinions.
The paper “Participating in a Climate Prediction Market Increases Concern About Global Warming,” published in June 2023 in the journal Nature Climate Change, explores how individual participation in climate prediction markets influences attitudes and knowledge about climate change. The study was co-authored by Moran Cerf and Sandra C. Matz of Columbia Business School and Malcolm A. MacIver of Northwestern University.