Latest on Climate
Mining for the Energy Transition
Geothermal Energy: Five Key Insights from Industry Leaders
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Biofuels as an interim solution for hard-to-electrify sectors
How to Measure Climate Progress
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Retailers Confront Tariff Whiplash: CBS’s “Next Frontier in Retail” Discussion Focuses on Resilient, Regenerative Supply Chains
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Carbon Capture's ‘Yes, and’ Role in Climate Action
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Hard to Abate, Impossible to Ignore: How Green Steel and Low-Carbon Cement Are Cleaning Up Heavy Industry
Climate Faculty
Gernot Wagner
- Senior Lecturer in Discipline of Economics in the Faculty of Business
- Economics Division
- Faculty Director, Climate Knowledge Initiative
- Tamer Institute for Social Enterprise and Climate Change
- Faculty Fellow
- CESifo
- Board Member
- CarbonPlan
- Columnist
- Project Syndicate
- Senior Fellow
- Jain Family Institute
Latest Climate Research
Beliefs, evidence, and climate action
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- Date
- Forthcoming
- Format
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Journal Article
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- Energy Economics
We assess how changes in the scientific consensus around equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), as captured by the IPCC’s Fifth (AR5) and Sixth (AR6) Assessment Reports, impact policymakers’ willingness to take climate action. Taking the IPCC’s reports at face value, the ECS estimates in AR6 would have lowered a policymaker’s willingness to act on climate relative to AR5 due to a narrower "likely" range. However, Bayesian updating may reverse this conclusion.
The Geothermal Opportunity
The Earth beneath our feet holds an almost comically simple solution to our energy problems. Drill down a few kilometers anywhere on the planet and you’ll find temperatures hot enough to boil water.
Run that water through a turbine, generate electricity, reinject the cooled water into the ground, repeat. No fuel needed. No emissions. Just heat from the planet’s molten core, which will remain hot for billions of years – long after anyone stops caring about quarterly earnings reports.
Opportunities: How the green growth mindset can achieve big climate wins
It’s natural to expect that humanity’s response to a warming planet will involve sacrifices as we cut down on consumption and give up unsustainable ways of living. Climate action, has another side: however, where there’s room for growth and innovation. Reflecting the mentality he encounters at Columbia Business School, where MBA students are constantly asking, “What can I do over the course of my career? How do I make myself useful?” Wagner emphasizes that decarbonization means investment—in economies, companies, and oneself.
Why more fossil fuels won’t fix the Iran energy crisis
Climate-friendly technologies are the best way to stymie rising inflation — and will get better and cheaper over time.
Full text via nature.com [PDF]
A bias-corrected & downscaled massive ensemble to diagnose uncertainty in climate impact projections
- Authors
- Date
- February 24, 2026
- Format
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Working Paper
Projections of climate change and climate impacts requires bias-corrected, downscaled output from ensembles of earth system models (ESMs). Potential impacts are uncertain due to modeling differences between ESMs, internal variability stemming from the chaos of the earth system, and differences in the historical reference datasets used to bias-corrected and downscale ESM output. Here, we introduce the Bias-Corrected and Downscaled Massive Ensemble (BCD-ME), a set of over 1,400 projections of daily mean and maximum temperature.
Trajectory Normalizing Work in Unstable Production Environments: When Adapting Production Means Appearing Authentic
Organizations emphasize specific production practices to deal with authenticity pressures, but the practices that signal authenticity to audiences must be continually adapted when production environments are unstable. Changes in the environment can make production practices suddenly infeasible, compelling organizations to perform in different ways the highly visible practices that audiences have come to associate with authenticity.
Cementing Carbon
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- Date
- January 22, 2026
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Newspaper/Magazine Article
- Publication
- Milken Review
To appreciate how fundamental a role cement plays in human society, one must first understand the importance of the carbon cycle in the evolution of the planet. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere dissolves in seawater and gets metabolized by living corals and plankton that eventually die and decompose into ocean sediments. The sediments are compressed over millions of years until they become limestone – a natural storage vault for elemental carbon, like coal, oil and gas.
Economic Damages of Delayed Climate Action
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- Date
- December 21, 2025
- Format
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Working Paper
Delayed climate mitigation imposes substantial economic costs by shifting the burden of adjustment onto future generations. We quantify these welfare losses within a climate-economy model that allows us to calculate the deadweight loss (DWL) of underpricing carbon pollution. We simulate policy delay by constraining initial mitigation years and comparing resulting welfare outcomes to an unconstrained baseline.
Climate shift uncertainty and economic damages
- Authors
- Date
- December 9, 2025
- Format
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Working Paper
Focusing on global annual averages of climatic variables can bias aggregate and distributional estimates of the economic impacts of climate change. We here empirically identify dose-response functions of GDP growth rates to daily mean temperature levels and combine them with regional intra-annual climate projections of daily mean temperatures. We then disentangle, for various shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), how much of the missing impacts are due to heterogeneous warming patterns over space.