State of Telecom 2016: Online Video as the Disruptor: Winners and Losers
Friday, October 7th 2016
Over the past 5 years, the use of online video entertainment has exploded. In 2011 the average user spent 39 minutes per day watching online video. By 2015, that number had quadrupled to 1 hour 55 minutes a day. Online video is quickly becoming the "killer app" of the Internet. As online video becomes a central pillar of the Internet it disrupts traditional players and industries: content producers; distribution networks; aggregators; consumer electronics makers; cloud and data centers; advertisers and marketers; and investors. The conference will analyze how these industries are affected and what the consequences are. It will feature academics, policymakers, and industry trailblazers. Additionally, the conference will hear Wall Street analysts predicting long-term winners and losers.
9:00am Welcome and Introduction to the Conference
• Eli Noam, Columbia University
9:20am Online Video as a Disrupter of Consumer Electronics
Previous generations of video were generally defined by the devices used to view the content (VHS, DVD, Cable/Satellite Set Top Boxes). But online video is not tethered to a single device.
This panel will analyze the current and future state of video hardware, and also explore policy on set-top box/device interconnection. Discussion will include financial models for video hardware, and whether the next generation of video will require separate hardware, or be virtualized in the cloud.
Moderator: Darcy Gerbarg*
• Henning Schulzrinne, Federal Communications Commission
• John Carey, Fordham University
• Greg Harper, Harpervision
• Bernarda Duarte, Roku
10:35am Online Video as the Disruptor of Distribution Networks
Video transmission is expected to grow to 80% of network traffic by 2020. As video distribution is transformed and more users connect to cloud-based video systems, what will be the demands on network capacity? What kind of upgrades will be needed in the core of the network, in the network architecture, and what are the investment implications? What role will the Backhaul/CDN providers play in this new system, and what will be their industry structure? What will be the impact on DSL, mobile wireless , satellites? What are the opportunities for infrastructure technology vendors. Startups, and software defined networks? What are the implications for vertical integration of CDNs and content? And what are policy implications?
Moderator: Judith O’Neill*
• Robert Pepper, Facebook
• Brent Olson, AT&T
• Heather Hudson, University of Alaska Anchorage
1• Toshiya Jitsuzumi, Kyushu University
11:50am Coffee Break
12:00am Online Video as a Disruptor of Content Markets
Internet Usage, both wired and wireless, has grown at a high rate. It has been observed that the main driver of this growth has been entertainment, specifically streaming video. The question is what drives this growth. It has been said that content is king. Others disagree. Several major content acquisitions by distributors have now taken place, most recently Verizon/AOL & Yahoo.
Is such vertical integration being oversold? Will the high demand, for premium content raise its cost? What are the implications for media companies of various kinds? What are the policy implications?
Moderator: Eli Noam, Columbia University
• Rick Lane, 21st Century Fox
• Scott McDonald, Nomos Research
• Jason Buckweitz, Columbia Institute for Tele-Information
• Steve Rosenbaum, Waywire.com
1:15pm Lunch
2:15pm Disrupting the Disruptors: Video as a Disruptor of Clouds, Platforms, and Data Centers
With video platforms becoming a central element of video distribution, an important question is the emerging industry structure. Vast server farms need to be created and operated, data analytics be performed, and marketing and customer services provided. Are the scale economies such that only a few vast operators will survive? Will this lead to a multi-level industry system? Who will be the major players, and who will be in decline? What is the global nature of such a system?
What are the implications?
Moderator: Bruce Lincoln
• Matthias Kurth, Cable Europe
• G. Gooder, Kaltura
• Debasis Mitra, Columbia University Disruptor of Clouds
3:30pm Online Video as a Disruptor of Wall Street: Investors Predicting Winners and Losers
This panel will examine what the growth segments and companies are, and which are likely to decline. Projections will be sought for the near term, the more competitive intermediate stage, and a consolidated long run. What are investor implications?
Moderator: Jason Adam Buckweitz, Columbia Institute for Tele-Information
• Jonathan Chaplin, New Street Research
• Robert Cohen, Economic Strategy Institute
• Raul Katz, Columbia University
• Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson
• Tuna Amobi, S&P
4:45pm Conclusion