Corporate Finance

The US government has a massive footprint on any US company that goes way beyond just the impact of tariffs. How the government chooses to use that influence can make or break the company. Read the full article on Forbes.com

Geoeconomic pressure—the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends—has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora. We quantify not just the direct effects of implemented policies but also the off-path threats that induce compliance without formal action. We systematically identify governments, firms, tools, and activities that are involved in this pressure.

Under standard assumptions, individuals and the government are indifferent between traditional tax-deferred retirement accounts and “front-loaded” (Roth) accounts. Adding investment fees to this benchmark, individuals are still indifferent but the government is not. We show that under weak conditions firms charge equal percent fees under both systems, yielding higher dollar fees under Traditional. We estimate that tax deferral increases demand for asset management services by $3.8 trillion, costing the government $23.4 billion in annual fees.

Earnings management involves actions by managers to influence reported financial results, often to present a more favorable view of company performance. In this chapter, we discuss the tools available to managers for earnings management. We first consider manipulation of net income through accruals and real earnings management. Then, we disaggregate earnings management along the income statement, comparing manipulation of revenue, expenses, and gains and losses.

The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no‐arbitrage restriction in the United States. Both cyclical and long‐run dynamics of tax revenues and government spending make the surplus claim risky. In a realistic asset pricing model, this risk in surpluses creates a large gap between the market value of debt and its fundamental value, the PDV of surpluses, suggesting that U.S. Treasuries may be overpriced.

How should an investor value financial data? The answer is complicated because it depends on the characteristics of all investors. We develop a sufficient statistics approach that uses equilibrium asset return moments to summarize all relevant information
about others’ characteristics. It can value data that is public or private, about one or many assets, relevant for dividends or for sentiment. While different data types, of course, have different valuations, heterogeneous investors also value the same data

Big data technologies change the way in which data and human labor combine to create knowledge. Is this a modest technological advance or a data revolution? Using hiring and wage data, we show how to estimate firms' data stocks and the shape of their knowledge production functions. Knowing how much production functions have changed informs us about the likely long-run changes in output, in factor shares, and in the distribution of income, due to the new, big data technologies.

We propose a tractable model of dynamic investment, spinoffs, financing, and risk management for a multi-division firm facing costly external finance. Our analysis formalizes