The political divide in the United States is now at its highest point in more than 20 years, with far-reaching implications beyond just electoral politics.
New research by Oded Netzer, the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business and Vice Dean of Research at Columbia Business School; ESADE Business School Professor Verena Schoenmueller; and University of Mannheim Professor Florian Stahl, investigates whether this political ideology polarization extends to consumers' preferences, intentions, and purchases.
"Our research shows that political polarization, which we're all experiencing, is actually reshaping the consumer landscape," Netzer says.
Their findings suggest that the apparent polarization in political ideologies is particularly noticeable after the 2016 election of President Donald Trump, stretching into the daily lives of consumers, impacting where they shop, the brands they chose, the media they read or the sports team they root for.
How the Research Was Done
The researchers utilized publicly available social media data, specifically over three million brand followerships of X (at the time of the study, Twitter) users. This Twitter data was collected between February 2016 and October 2022, encompassing two U.S. presidential elections (2016 and 2020). This data allowed the researchers to observe which political party or political figures a user followed and their brand followership.
The researchers also supplemented the Twitter data with a YouGov brand-preference survey dataset and a Nielsen scanner panel data, which allowed the researchers to observe sales of thousands of products at the store relate them to the election results in the consumer's county.
The validity of Twitter followership as a measure of preference partisanship was cross-referenced against external measures like YouGov data, brand political donations, and media bias ratings.
What the Researchers Found
The study consistently found evidence for brand-preference polarization following the 2016 election, with a notable increase among liberals. This stronger polarization among liberals is consistent with the theory of compensatory consumption, where members of a politically threatened group (liberals in this case) adopt behaviors, such as following or purchasing more "liberal brands," to solidify their political identity. This pattern reversed following the 2020 election when a democratic candidate (President Joe Biden) was elected.
“We found consistent results of increasing brand polarization in brand followership on Twitter (now X), stated consumer preference via survey, and actual purchases in the supermarket,” Netzer says.
Media outlets on Twitter showed a clear increase in post-election political polarization; Democratic outlets like The New Yorker and The Atlantic saw their followers become more Democratic, while Republican outlets like Fox News became more Republican or remained stable. Beyond the election itself, brands that took a political stance or were involved in the political debate (e.g., American Eagle, Tesla, Nike, and Nordstrom) also experienced a significant shift in the political affiliation of their Twitter follower base after their actions.
"60% of consumers either buycott – buy products because of their political identity – or boycott – do not buy certain products because of their own political identity,” Netzer says. "Brands that learn how to navigate this and learn how to identify who their customers are, do much better in their political activism.”
Why the Research Matters:
The researchers’ findings offer crucial insights for brands and marketers operating in an increasingly politically charged environment. It demonstrates that political polarization is not confined to the ballot box but profoundly influences consumer behavior and brand choices.
Brands can experience shifts in their customer base's political affiliation, especially if they take a political stand or find themselves involved in the political debate. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing effective marketing strategies and maintaining brand relevance. Businesses should be aware of how political events and their own public stances can inadvertently realign their consumer demographics. This implies a need for nuanced strategies that acknowledge the political identities of consumers, as these identities can drive purchase decisions and brand loyalty. The study underscores that consumer behavior is increasingly intertwined with political identity, urging companies to recognize and adapt to this evolving landscape.
FAQs
Q: What is "preference polarization"?
A: Preference polarization refers to the phenomenon where individuals' choices and preferences, particularly for consumer brands, become increasingly aligned with their political ideology.
Q: How does political polarization affect brands?
A: Brands can experience shifts in their customer base's political affiliation, especially if they take a political stance, as consumers may choose brands that align with their political identity.
Q: How should brands assess the political affiliation of their consumers?
A: Social media (e.g., X or Facebook) provides a publicly available data source for brands to explore the political leaning of their followers and how it may change over time.
Adapted from "Frontiers: Polarized America: From Political Polarization to Preference Polarization" by Verena Schoenmueller, Oded Netzer, and Florian Stahl, published in Marketing Science.
