Decision Making & Negotiations

This paper is concerned with dynamic control of stochastic processing networks. Specifically, it follows the so called heavy traffic approach, where a Brownian approximating model is formulated, an associated Brownian optimal control problem is solved, the solution of which is then used to define an implementable policy for the original system. A major challenge is the step of policy translation from the Brownian to the discrete network. This paper addresses this problem by defining a general and easily implementable family of continuous-review tracking policies.

This paper studies dynamic competition in markets characterized by the introduction of technologically advanced next-generation products. Firms invest in new product effort in an attempt to attain industry leadership, thus securing high profits and benefiting from advantages relevant for the success of future product generations. The analysis reveals that when the current leader possesses higher research and development (R&D) competence, it tends to invest more in R&D than rivals and to retain its lead position.

The purpose of this paper is to understand buyer/seller adoption dynamics in independent, buyer-side B2B exchanges. In a stylized model, we assume that the main role of the exchange is to reduce search costs for buyers. Buyers and sellers enter or exit the exchange based on the relative economic surplus (loss) they receive inside vs. outside the exchange. We contrast two situations: one where participants' switching cost to join the institution is negligible and another, in which it is significant.

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In this paper, limited managerial capacity gives rise to a timing option: agents can implement projects now-or-later. Because each agent cares only about the project he implements, while the principal cares about the projects undertaken in aggregate, the timing option may be valued differently by the principal and the agents. Under a fair assignment rule (one that treats the agents symmetrically), these conflicting valuations result in agents sometimes not implementing the principal's desired projects.

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy in which poor farmers borrow from rich farmers. Because output is stochastic (we allow for idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks), there may be default ex post. We compare equilibria with and without political intervention. Intervention takes the form of a moratorium and is decided by voting. When bad economic shocks are highly likely, state-contingent debt moratoria always improve ex post efficiency and may also improve ex ante efficiency. Moreover, the threat of moratoria enhances efficiency.

Two studies were conducted among professional security analysts to explore their patterns of decision making while managing investment portfolios. In study 1, a computer-based simulation, the analysts' styles differed markedly, with most exhibiting either a momentum or contrarian approach, as indicated by responses to portfolio stock price changes. Study 2 used a verbal protocol procedure and semistructured depth interviews to probe the analysts' thought processes.

In this paper, we develop an approach for filtering state variables in the setting of continuous-time jump-diffusion models. Our method computes the filtering distribution of latent state variables conditional only on discretely observed observations in a manner consistent with the underlying continuous-time process. The algorithm is a combination of particle filtering methods and the "filling-in-the-missing-data" estimators which have recently become popular. We provide simulation evidence to verify that our method provides accurate inference.

This research examines the effects of lying about one's attitudes (attitude dissimulation) on various strength-related consequences for weakly held attitudes. Dissimulation for weak attitudes could either produce a strengthening effect on the underlying attitude (if lying involves activation of the true attitude) or a weakening effect (if lying sets up a competing link to the false attitude). Results from three experiments using different dissimulation paradigms support the strengthening hypothesis.