Decision Making & Negotiations

The authors discuss research progress and future opportunities for modeling consumer choice on the Internet using clickstream data (the electronic records of Internet usage recorded by company web servers and syndicated data services). The authors compare the nature of Internet choice (as captured by clickstream data) with supermarket choice (as captured by UPC scanner panel data), highlighting the differences relevant to choice modelers.

As more firms adopt a customer asset management approach to their business, it has become increasingly important to understand how customer management efforts relate to the financial performance of the firm. Of specific interest to shareholders is the relationship between traditional financial measures and customer-centric measures. The customer-centric measure that has received the most attention is customer lifetime value (CLV).

This paper examines characterizations of the dynamics for the first and second moments of the one-month interest rate, the 12-month excess bond return and exchange rates. The countries considered are the US, Germany, Japan, and the UK. Our tests are based on the implications of multi-country versions of the Cox et al. (1985) class of term structure models. Multi-country models are in several cases better able to explain the dynamics of the one-month interest rates and the 12-month excess bond returns than one-country models.

This article examines the effects of evaluative inconsistencies in product attribute information on the strength of the resultant attitude, as manifested in its predictive ability. The existing literature makes opposing predictions regarding the effects of information inconsistency on attitude strength. We seek to resolve this dilemma by investigating the likelihood of inconsistency reconciliation, that is, whether or not people elaborate on inconsistencies with the goal of achieving an integrated evaluation.

This article proposes a model of judgment revision, which posits that counterattitudinal challenges to a brand initially trigger a memory search for proattitudinal information about this brand. The proattitudinal information accessible from memory is then aligned with information contained in the challenge in order to assess the diagnosticity of the challenge, that is, how much it "damages" the retrieved brand information. If the challenge is not perceived to be diagnostic, the retrieved brand information is used to defend the previous attitudinal position.

This paper argues that the use of monetary policy in response to the Asian financial crisis worsened the economic downturn and contributed to global economic instability, that we have spent too little time thinking about the behavior of the international economic and financial institutions given the important role that they play in the global economy and that reforms are needed to return the IMF to its original mandate of focusing on global financial stability.

This paper studies the economic benefits of return predictability by analyzing the impact of market and volatility timing on the performance of optimal portfolio rules. Using a model with time-varying expected returns and volatility, we form optimal portfolios sequentially and generate out-of-sample portfolio returns. We are careful to account for estimation risk and parameter learning.

This paper evaluates the specification errors of several empirical asset pricing models that have been developed as potential improvements on the CAPM. We use the methodology of Hansen and Jagannathan (J. Finance 51 (1997) 3), and the test assets are the 25 Fama-French (J. Financial Econom. 52 (1997) 557) equity portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market ratio, and the Treasury bill. We allow the parameters of each model's pricing kernel to fluctuate with the business cycle. While we cannot reject correct pricing for Campbell's (J. Political Econom.

This article tests 2 competing explanations for the truth effect, the finding that repeated statements are believed more than new statements. Previous research has put forth 2 explanations for this effect, subjective familiarity and perceived source variability. The subjective familiarity explanation holds that repeated statements feel more familiar and are therefore believed more than new statements. This explanation has received strong support in the literature.