Decision Making & Negotiations

We examine short-horizon return predictability using a novel proprietary dataset of institutional traders with known identities. We estimate investor-specific short-term trading skill and find that there is pronounced heterogeneity in predicting short-term returns among institutional investors. Incorporating short-term predictive ability, our model explains much higher fraction of variation in asset returns. Ignoring the heterogeneity in short-term trading skill has major implications in modeling price impact.

People are more generous toward single than toward multiple beneficiaries, and encouraging greater giving to multiple targets is challenging. We identify one factor, perceived efficacy, which enhances generosity toward multiple beneficiaries. We investigate relationships between perceived self-efficacy (believing one can take steps to make an impact), response efficacy (believing those steps will be effective), and charitable giving.

Investigations of the basic risk-return trade-off for the market return typically use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with a monthly or quarterly horizon and data sampled to match the horizon even though daily data are available. We develop an overlapping data inference methodology for such models that uses all of the data while maintaining the monthly or quarterly forecasting period. Our approach recognizes that the first order conditions of MLE can be used as orthogonality conditions of the generalized method of moments (GMM).

Contemporary consumer behavior research largely conceptualizes post-decision evaluation processes in terms of decision confidence, anticipated regret and satisfaction, and decision and consumption satisfaction. The current research broadens this view, arguing that people additionally experience varying degrees of decision comfort that are distinct from other post-decision evaluations.

Top 15 Financial Times McKinsey Business Book of 2015

In an "activist risk arbitrage," a shareholder attempts to change the course of an announced M&A deal through public campaigns, and profits from improved terms. Compared to conventional (passive) risk arbitrageurs, activists target deals susceptible to managerial conflicts of interest (e.g., going-private and "friendly" deals) and deals with lower announcement premiums. Their presence increases the sensitivity of deal completion to market signals.

This paper explores the quantitative asset-pricing implications of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences, as introduced by Koszegi and Rabin, in an otherwise traditional Lucas-tree m model. I find that the model easily succeeds in matching the historical equity premium and its variability when the preference parameters are calibrated in line with micro evidence. The equity premium is high because expectations-based loss aversion makes uncertain fluctuations in consumption more painful.

The role of assortment planning and pricing in shaping sales and profits of retailers is well documented and studied in monopolistic settings. However, such a role remains relatively unexplored in competitive environments. In this paper, we study equilibrium behavior of competing retailers in two settings: i.) when prices are exogenously fixed, and retailers compete in assortments only; and ii.) when retailers compete jointly in assortment and prices.

Using mutual funds' quarterly holdings of credit default swap (CDS) contracts over 2007-2011, we analyze the motives for and consequences of funds' CDS investment pre- and post-financial crisis. Consistent with theories, funds resort to CDS selling when facing unpredictable liquidity needs and when the CDS security is liquid relative to the underlying bond, and to CDS buying as part of a "negative basis trade" when the bond is illiquid. Smaller funds follow leading funds in yield searching.