Decision Making & Negotiations

This essay analyzes some problems that accounting standard setters confront in erecting barriers to managers bent on boosting their firms' financial reports through financial engineering (FE) activities. It also poses some unsolved research questions regarding interactions between preparers and standard setters. It starts by discussing the history of lease accounting to illustrate the institutional disadvantage of standard setters relative to preparers in their speeds of response.

The fields of judgment and decision making (JDM) and cultural psychology have not seen much overlap, but recent research at the intersection of culture and JDM has provided new insights for both fields. This chapter reviews recent advances, with a focus on how studying cultural variations in JDM has yielded novel perspectives on basic psychological processes. JDM perspectives can propose novel explanations for differences across national cultures beyond those suggested by the prevailing models of culture.

We consider a non-stationary variant of a sequential stochastic optimization problem, where the underlying cost functions may change along the horizon. We propose a measure, termed variation budget, that controls the extent of said change, and study how restrictions on this budget impact achievable performance. We identify sharp conditions under which it is possible to achieve long- run-average optimality and more refined performance measures such as rate optimality that fully characterize the complexity of such problems.

We develop a model to understand and predict customers’ observed multichannel behavior in a customer support setting.

In a recent statement, the American Statistical Association (ASA) discusses the use of value-added measurement to evaluate teacher quality. We present our views on the issues raised by the ASA, in light of research we and others have done on this subject. We highlight areas of agreement with the ASA statement, clarify which issues raised by the ASA have been largely resolved, and point to those issues which should be a priority for future research.

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then examine the predictive power of the VIX and its two components for stock market returns, economic activity and financial instability.

Purchase intentions are frequently measured and used by marketing managers as an input for decisions about new and existing products and services. Purchase intentions are correlated and predict future sales, but do so imperfectly. I review and summarize research on the relationship between purchase intentions and sales that has been conducted over the past 60 years. This review offers insights into how best to measure purchase intentions, how to forecast sales from purchase intentions measures, and why purchase intentions do not always translate into sales.

Just as we have learned a great deal in consumer psychology by focusing on understanding how different sub-groups of humans think, this paper suggests that we can also learn from examining how different types of animals think. To that end, this manuscript offers a review of literature on topics in animal cognition that have also been investigated by consumer researchers.

This paper investigates the impact of lower mortgage rates on household balance sheets and other economic outcomes during the housing crisis. We use proprietary loan-level panel data matched to consumer credit records using borrowers' Social Security numbers, which allows for accurate measurement of the effects. Our main focus is on borrowers with agency loans, which constitute the vast majority of U.S. mortgage borrowers.