Interest Rates and Inflation: What’s Next for the Federal Reserve?
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Tano Santos, the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Asset Management and Finance and Director of Columbia Business School’s Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, discusses the school’s approach to value investing and finance.
This paper studies systemic risk in the interbank market. We first establish that in the German interbank lending market, a few large banks intermediate funding flows between many smaller periphery banks. We then develop a network model in which banks trade off the costs and benefits of link formation to explain these patterns. The model is structurally estimated using banks' preferences as revealed by the observed network structure before the 2008 financial crisis.
We demonstrate a novel link between relationship-specific investments and risk in a setting where division managers operate under moral hazard and collaborate on joint projects. Specific investments increase efficiency at the margin. This expands the scale of operations and thereby adds to the compensation risk borne by the managers. Accounting for this investment/risk link overturns key findings from prior incomplete contracting studies.
Bank bond portfolios remained deeply underwater in the fourth quarter of 2022, reducing banks' access to liquidity in the first quarter when deposits became far more precious.
Todd Baker is a financial services executive whose career has led him from corporate law to C-suite strategic business leadership roles at several of the largest domestic and international banks and roles as an academic, consultant, writer, speaker and commentator on banking, financial technology, consumer financial access and regulation issues.
Brett House is Professor of Professional Practice in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research and writing are focused on macroeconomics and international finance, with interests in fiscal issues, monetary policy, international trade, financial crises, and debt markets. His work has been published in peer-reviewed journals and international media.
Yiming Ma is an Associate Professor in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School. She received her Ph.D. in Finance from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 2018 and a B.A. in Economics & Mathematical and Global Affairs from Yale University in 2013.
Mark A. Zurack teaches Capital Markets and Investments, Equity Derivatives and Equity Markets and Products at Columbia Business School. Mark is currently on the Board of Directors of the Binghamton University Foundation and also serves on the Boards of the Alzheimer's Association, Teach For America, Upper West Success Academy, ETC, Southampton Bath and Tennis and the Columbia Business School Social Enterprise Program. Prior to coming to Columbia, Professor Zurack worked at Goldman Sachs for 18 years. He joined GS in 1983 and started the equity derivatives research group.
Michael Giliberto retired in 2010 as a Managing Director at JPMorgan Asset Management, the global investment management business of JPMorgan Chase. Mr. Giliberto oversaw U.S. real estate portfolio management and global strategy and research within the Global Real Assets Group.
Matthew Dell Orfano is a Senior member at Discovery Capital, focusing globally on multiple sectors, thematic trade construction, and special situations, in addition to managing their data efforts. He is responsible for individual positions and the internal thematically driven portfolio, which assimilates bottoms-up analysis and macro thematic from over 55 countries into actionable insights.
Jesse Schreger is an associate professor of macroeconomics in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research is primarily on international finance and macroeconomics, focusing on sovereign debt and exchange rates. His work has been published in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Finance, and the Journal of International Economics.
Professor Bruce C. N. Greenwald is the Robert Heilbrunn Professor Emeritus of Finance and Asset Management at Columbia Business School and the academic Director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing. Described by the New York Times as "a guru to Wall Street's gurus," Greenwald is an authority on value investing with additional expertise in productivity and the economics of information.
Ciamac C. Moallemi is the William Von Mueffling Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering & Computer Science and in Mathematics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1996).
Professor Glasserman's research and teaching address risk management, quant finance, Monte Carlo simulation, statistics and operations. Prior to joining Columbia, Glasserman was with Bell Laboratories; he has also held visiting positions at Princeton University, NYU, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In 2011-2012, he was on leave from Columbia and working at the Office of Financial Research in the U.S. Treasury Department, where he continues to serve as a part-time consultant.
In this paper, we develop a computational measure of the firm-level rhetorical nationalism. We first review the literature and develop a four-dimensional theoretical framework of nationalism relevant to firms: national pride, anti-foreign, dominant agenda, and corporate role. We then use machine-learning-based text analysis of over 41,000 annual reports of Chinese public firms from 2000 to 2020 and identify a dictionary of words for each dimension.
Using publicly available data from 299 pre-registered replications from the social sciences, we find that the language used to describe a study can predict its replicability above and beyond a large set of controls related to the paper characteristics, study design and results, author information, and replication effort. To understand why, we analyze the textual differences between replicable and nonreplicable studies.
Using publicly available data from 299 pre-registered replications from the social sciences, we find that the language used to describe a study can predict its replicability above and beyond a large set of controls related to the paper characteristics, study design and results, author information, and replication effort. To understand why, we analyze the textual differences between replicable and nonreplicable studies.
Constituency mobilization is a widely prevalent corporate political strategy, yet we lack systematic evidence on the scope of its effectiveness. One emerging form of constituency mobilization is user mobilization, wherein a company focuses on rallying political support among its users. This approach differs from traditional lobbying, which relies on tightly controlled insider strategies to exert influence over lawmakers. In our study of user mobilization by platform-based companies in the U.S.
We develop a financial-economic model for carbon pricing with an explicit representation of decision making under risk and uncertainty that is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We show that risk associated with high damages in the long term leads to stringent mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions in the near term, and find that this approach provides economic support for stringent warming targets across a variety of specifications.
We consider a New Keynesian model with strategic monetary and fiscal interactions. The fiscal authority maximizes social welfare. Monetary policy is delegated to a central bank with an anti-inflation bias that suffers from a lack of commitment. The impact of central bank hawkishness on debt issuance is non-monotonic because increased
We consider a New Keynesian model with strategic monetary and fiscal interactions. The fiscal authority maximizes social welfare. Monetary policy is delegated to a central bank with an anti-inflation bias that suffers from a lack of commitment. The impact of central bank hawkishness on debt issuance is non-monotonic because increased
The United States recently passed major federal laws supporting the energy transition, and analyses suggest that their successful implementation could reduce US emissions more than 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, achieving maximal emissions reductions would require frictionless supply and demand responses to the laws’ incentives and implementation that avoids polarization and efforts to repeal or undercut them. In this Perspective, we discuss some of these supply, demand and polarization challenges.
Industry groups engage in venue shifting when they seek to overturn or alter restrictive regulations imposed by one political venue through another. A critical step in this process is resolving uncertainties surrounding the preference of the targeted venue and the nature of the relevant policy proposal. While existing studies emphasize a long-term trial-and-error process of policy learning, we focus on nascent industries and argue that ventures seek other information sources to resolve these uncertainties quickly.