Interest Rates and Inflation: What’s Next for the Federal Reserve?
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Tano Santos, the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Asset Management and Finance and Director of Columbia Business School’s Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, discusses the school’s approach to value investing and finance.
This paper studies systemic risk in the interbank market. We first establish that in the German interbank lending market, a few large banks intermediate funding flows between many smaller periphery banks. We then develop a network model in which banks trade off the costs and benefits of link formation to explain these patterns. The model is structurally estimated using banks' preferences as revealed by the observed network structure before the 2008 financial crisis.
We demonstrate a novel link between relationship-specific investments and risk in a setting where division managers operate under moral hazard and collaborate on joint projects. Specific investments increase efficiency at the margin. This expands the scale of operations and thereby adds to the compensation risk borne by the managers. Accounting for this investment/risk link overturns key findings from prior incomplete contracting studies.
Bank bond portfolios remained deeply underwater in the fourth quarter of 2022, reducing banks' access to liquidity in the first quarter when deposits became far more precious.
Todd Baker is a financial services executive whose career has led him from corporate law to C-suite strategic business leadership roles at several of the largest domestic and international banks and roles as an academic, consultant, writer, speaker and commentator on banking, financial technology, consumer financial access and regulation issues.
Brett House is Professor of Professional Practice in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research and writing are focused on macroeconomics and international finance, with interests in fiscal issues, monetary policy, international trade, financial crises, and debt markets. His work has been published in peer-reviewed journals and international media.
Yiming Ma is an Associate Professor in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School. She received her Ph.D. in Finance from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 2018 and a B.A. in Economics & Mathematical and Global Affairs from Yale University in 2013.
Kairong Xiao is Roger F. Murray Associate Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. His research interests span financial intermediation, corporate finance, monetary economics, industrial organization, and political economy.
Professor Nissim earned his PhD in Accounting at the University of California, Berkeley, and joined Columbia Business School in 1997. He was granted tenure in 2005, and full professorship in 2007. He served as the Chair of the Accounting Division during the years 2006–2009 and 2014–2016.
Jesse Schreger is an associate professor of macroeconomics in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research is primarily on international finance and macroeconomics, focusing on sovereign debt and exchange rates. His work has been published in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Finance, and the Journal of International Economics.
Matthew Dell Orfano is a Senior member at Discovery Capital, focusing globally on multiple sectors, thematic trade construction, and special situations, in addition to managing their data efforts. He is responsible for individual positions and the internal thematically driven portfolio, which assimilates bottoms-up analysis and macro thematic from over 55 countries into actionable insights.
Mark A. Zurack teaches Capital Markets and Investments, Equity Derivatives and Equity Markets and Products at Columbia Business School. Mark is currently on the Board of Directors of the Binghamton University Foundation and also serves on the Boards of the Alzheimer's Association, Teach For America, Upper West Success Academy, ETC, Southampton Bath and Tennis and the Columbia Business School Social Enterprise Program. Prior to coming to Columbia, Professor Zurack worked at Goldman Sachs for 18 years. He joined GS in 1983 and started the equity derivatives research group.
Professor Johannes’s research analyzes the empirical content of fixed-income and derivative securities pricing models. He is particularly interested in developing econometric methods to investigate models with jumps and stochastic volatility. Johannes teaches the elective Capital Markets and Investments.
For 29 years Michael has invested directly at the security level and indirectly as an asset allocator in traditional and alternative asset classes. He is a Managing Director, Head of Hedge Funds and Alternative Alpha, and on the Investment Committee at APG, a world leader in Environmental, Social and Governance Investing. Previously he was the Chief Investment Officer at MOV37 and Protege Partners.
We study the role of commitment in communication and its interactions with rules, which determine whether information is verifiable. Our framework nests models of cheap talk, information disclosure, and Bayesian persuasion. It predicts that commitment has opposite effects on information transmission under the two alternative rules. We leverage these contrasting forces to experimentally establish that subjects react to commitment in line with the main qualitative implications of the theory. Quantitatively, not all subjects behave as predicted.
We provide evidence that in certain contexts, firms set upward-striving goals and that this upward striving yields significant performance and visibility benefits. We develop a model of variable attention in which, as firms’ performance levels approach cognitively salient round numbers, managers strategically shift their focus from easier-to-reach goals based on historical and social reference points to more challenging goals that provide external visibility and capital market benefits.
Acquisitions can shift the market structure of a digital platform in a way that affects subsequent market entries and hence the platform’s base of complementors. Synergies that complementor acquirers accrue can be entry-deterring. We develop a two-by-two typology of acquisition synergies in a multisided platform based on sides (user side or complementary-technology side) and economies (scale or scope).
The equity variance risk premium is the expected compensation earned for selling variance risk in equity markets. The variance risk premium is positive and shows only moderate persistence. High variance risk premiums coincide with the left tail of the consumption growth distribution shifting down. These facts, together with risk neutral skewness being substantially more negative than physical return skewness, refute the bulk of the extant consumption-based asset pricing models. We introduce a tractable habit model that does fit the data.