Interest Rates and Inflation: What’s Next for the Federal Reserve?
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Tano Santos, the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Asset Management and Finance and Director of Columbia Business School’s Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, discusses the school’s approach to value investing and finance.
This paper studies systemic risk in the interbank market. We first establish that in the German interbank lending market, a few large banks intermediate funding flows between many smaller periphery banks. We then develop a network model in which banks trade off the costs and benefits of link formation to explain these patterns. The model is structurally estimated using banks' preferences as revealed by the observed network structure before the 2008 financial crisis.
We demonstrate a novel link between relationship-specific investments and risk in a setting where division managers operate under moral hazard and collaborate on joint projects. Specific investments increase efficiency at the margin. This expands the scale of operations and thereby adds to the compensation risk borne by the managers. Accounting for this investment/risk link overturns key findings from prior incomplete contracting studies.
Bank bond portfolios remained deeply underwater in the fourth quarter of 2022, reducing banks' access to liquidity in the first quarter when deposits became far more precious.
Todd Baker is a financial services executive whose career has led him from corporate law to C-suite strategic business leadership roles at several of the largest domestic and international banks and roles as an academic, consultant, writer, speaker and commentator on banking, financial technology, consumer financial access and regulation issues.
Brett House is Professor of Professional Practice in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research and writing are focused on macroeconomics and international finance, with interests in fiscal issues, monetary policy, international trade, financial crises, and debt markets. His work has been published in peer-reviewed journals and international media.
Yiming Ma is an Associate Professor in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School. She received her Ph.D. in Finance from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 2018 and a B.A. in Economics & Mathematical and Global Affairs from Yale University in 2013.
David has over 15 years of experience investing in distressed, special situations and all-weather credit strategies, including as a Partner and Portfolio Manager of Standard General, LP. and Sunago Capital Partners LP. He also serves as Executive Chairman of Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE: TPB), a Director of National Cinemedia, Inc.
Professor Glasserman's research and teaching address risk management, quant finance, Monte Carlo simulation, statistics and operations. Prior to joining Columbia, Glasserman was with Bell Laboratories; he has also held visiting positions at Princeton University, NYU, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In 2011-2012, he was on leave from Columbia and working at the Office of Financial Research in the U.S. Treasury Department, where he continues to serve as a part-time consultant.
Jesse Schreger is an associate professor of macroeconomics in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research is primarily on international finance and macroeconomics, focusing on sovereign debt and exchange rates. His work has been published in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Finance, and the Journal of International Economics.
For 29 years Michael has invested directly at the security level and indirectly as an asset allocator in traditional and alternative asset classes. He is a Managing Director, Head of Hedge Funds and Alternative Alpha, and on the Investment Committee at APG, a world leader in Environmental, Social and Governance Investing. Previously he was the Chief Investment Officer at MOV37 and Protege Partners.
Professor Bekaert teaches courses on international finance, empirical asset pricing and investments. His research focus is international finance, with a particular interest in foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rate determination and international and emerging equity markets. He is also interested in portfolio management.
Professor Jian Li joined Columbia Business School in 2021. She graduated with a PhD from the Joint Program of Financial Economics at the University of Chicago. Her research interest lies at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. She is particularly interested in how financial intermediaries affect the real economy and how different types of financial institutions can contribute to financial instability.
Harry Mamaysky is a Professor of Professional Practice at Columbia Business School, where he serves as the Director of the Program for Financial Studies. He is also on the Steering Committee of the Columbia-IBM Center for Blockchain and Technology. Harry teaches capital markets and asset pricing to MBA, Masters and PhD students, as well as Executive Education courses on the use of text data in finance, and on corporate bonds. He has consulted for a quantitative investment firm and for a nationally recognized statistical rating organization.
Pierre Yared is the MUTB Professor of International Business, Senior Vice Dean for Faculty Affairs, and Vice Dean for Executive Education at Columbia Business School. His research, which has been published in leading academic journals, focuses on macroeconomic policy and political economy. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an associate editor of the American Economic Review. Yared teaches Global Economic Environment, a Core MBA course in macroeconomics for which he received the Dean’s Award for Teaching Excellence.
‘Moral hazard’ links geoengineering to mitigation via the fear that either solar geoengineering (solar radiation management, SRM) or carbon dioxide removal (CDR) might crowd out the desire to cut emissions. Fear of this crowding-out effect ranks among the most frequently cited risks of (solar) geoengineering. We here test moral hazard versus its inverse in a large-scale, revealed-preference experiment (n~340,000) on Facebook and find little to no support for either outcome. For the most part, talking about SRM or CDR does not motivate our study population to support a large U.S.
How much will it cost to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a global scale? The answer is critical for assessments of how to address climate change—affecting public support, political will, and policy choices. We find that the “bottom-up” estimation approach emphasized by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports considerably lower costs for emission reductions than leading “top-down” economic models.
We propose a tractable model of dynamic investment, spinoffs, financing, and risk management for a multi-division firm facing costly external finance. Our analysis formalizes
We propose a theory of banking in which banks cannot perfectly control deposit flows. Facing uninsurable loan and deposit shocks, banks dynamically manage lending, wholesale funding, deposits, and equity. Deposits create value by lowering funding costs. However, when the bank is undercapitalized and at risk of breaching leverage requirements, the marginal value of deposits can turn negative as deposit inflows, by raising leverage, increase the likelihood of costly equity issuance.
In the twenty-first century, the most valuable firms in the world are valued primarily for their data. This makes data central to finance. Data are an important asset to price; they change firm valuation and are a key consideration for an entrepreneur starting a new firm.
Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines — which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal structures — for customer management. One reason for this dearth is the difficulty of measuring routines from transaction data, particularly when routines vary substantially across customers. We propose a new approach for doing so, which we apply in the context of ridesharing.
Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines — which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal structures — for customer management. One reason for this dearth is the difficulty of measuring routines from transaction data, particularly when routines vary substantially across customers. We propose a new approach for doing so, which we apply in the context of ridesharing.
This study presents moral cost as a novel behavioral constraint on firm resource adjustment, specifically layoff decisions that can cause severe harm to employees. Revising the prevailing negative view of managers as purely self-interested, we propose that managers care about their employees and incur moral cost from layoffs. We leverage expansions in unemployment insurance as a quasi-natural experiment that reduces economic hardship for laid-off workers and, in turn, the moral cost of layoffs to managers. We find that these expansions license larger layoffs.
This study presents moral cost as a novel behavioral constraint on firm resource adjustment, specifically layoff decisions that can cause severe harm to employees. Revising the prevailing negative view of managers as purely self-interested, we propose that managers care about their employees and incur moral cost from layoffs. We leverage expansions in unemployment insurance as a quasi-natural experiment that reduces economic hardship for laid-off workers and, in turn, the moral cost of layoffs to managers. We find that these expansions license larger layoffs.