Decision Making & Negotiations

*Winner, Distinguished Paper award of the Smith-Breeden Prize.

The authors posit that women can rely on self-monitoring to overcome negative gender stereotypes in certain performance contexts. In a study of mixed-sex task groups, the authors found that female group members who were high self-monitors were considered more influential and more valuable contributors than women who were low self-monitors. Men benefited relatively less from self-monitoring behavior.

Raghunathan and Pham (1999) observed that, although of the same valence, states of anxiety and sadness have distinct effects on decision making. Results from two new experiments confirm that anxiety triggers a preference for options that are more rewarding and comforting. Our results also indicate that these effects are driven by an affect-as-information process, and are most pervasive when the source of anxiety or sadness is not salient.

A consumer's decision to rely on a friend to act as an agent depends, in part, on beliefs about the friend's knowledge. Three studies examine the role of motivational and cognitive biases in estimating friends' personalized knowledge (e.g., knowledge of one's movie preferences). Results show that estimates of close friends' knowledge are less accurate than those of less close friends for personalized but not for impersonal knowledge.

We develop discrete choice models that account for parameter driven preference dynamics. Choice model parameters may change over time because of shifting market conditions or due to changes in attribute levels over time or because of consumer learning. In this paper we show how such preference evolution can be modeled using hierarchial Bayesian state space models of discrete choice. The main feature of our approach is that it allows for the simultaneous incorporation of multiple sources of preference and choice dynamics.

Recent empirical research documents that the strong short-term relationship between U.S. monetary aggregates on one side and inflation and real output on the other has mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. Using the direct estimate of flows of U.S. dollars abroad we find that domestic money (currency corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of U.S. inflation and real output.

We examine the pricing of aggregate volatility risk in the cross-section of stock returns. Consistent with theory, we find that stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns. Stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility relative to the Fama and French (1993, Journal of Financial Economics 25, 2349) model have abysmally low average returns. This phenomenon cannot be explained by exposure to aggregate volatility risk.

Expanding upon Simon's (1955) seminal theory, this investigation compared the choice-making strategies of maximizers and satisficers, finding that maximizing tendencies, although positively correlated with objectively better decision outcomes, are also associated with more negative subjective evaluations of these decision outcomes. Specifically in the fall of their final year in school, students were administered a scale that measured maximizing tendencies and were than followed over the course of the year as they searched for jobs.

Narcissism has received increased attention in the past few decades as a sub-clinical individual difference with important everyday consequences, such as self-enhancement in perceptions of one's own behavior and attributes. The most widespread measure used by non-clinical researchers, the 40-item Narcissistic Personality Inventory or NPI-40, captures a range of different facets of the construct but its length may prohibit its use in settings where time pressure and respondent fatigue are major concerns.