Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
Contrary to the common perception that operating cash flows are better than accounting earnings at explaining equity valuations, recent studies suggest that valuations derived from industry multiples based on reported earnings are closer to traded prices than those based on reported operating cash flows.
This study investigates the determinants of the expected stock-price volatility assumption that firms use in estimating ESO values and thus option expense. We find that, consistent with the guidance of FAS 123, firms use both historical and implied volatility in deriving the expected volatility parameter. We also find, however, that the importance of each of the two variables in explaining disclosed volatility relates inversely to their values, which results in a reduction in expected volatility and thus option value.
Three studies support the proposal that need for closure (NFC) involves a desire for consensual validation that leads to cultural conformity. Individual differences in NFC interact with cultural group variables to determine East Asian versus Western differences in conflict style and procedural preferences (Study 1), information gathering in disputes (Study 2), and fairness judgment in reward allocations (Study 3).
In this paper, we propose a method of accounting for stock options that tracks the effect of the options on shareholder value. The accounting approach we outline can be applied not only to employee stock options but to all claims that are effectively convertible into common shares, including convertible preferred stock, warrants, and call and put options on the firm's own stock. Our proposal also aims to make accounting consistent with stock prices, since the market surely takes account of the (potential) valuation effects of these claims when setting stock prices.
Records of 793,794 employees eligible to participate in 647 defined contribution pension plans are studied. About 71% of them choose to participate in the plans, and of the participants, 12% choose to contribute the maximum allowed, $10,500.
Records of 793,794 employees eligible to participate in 647 defined contribution pension plans are studied. About 71% of them choose to participate in the plans, and of the participants, 12% choose to contribute the maximum allowed, $10,500.
Profession- and job-related social events such as mixers are viewed by organizations and individuals as incubators of interpersonal ties, as arenas in which individuals can initiate new and different contacts. Theory and evidence on network dynamics, however, suggests that such outcomes may be unlikely, because past ties constrain future contacts, and because homophily inhibits contact between different types of people. We investigate whether guests at a social mixer "mix" despite these influences.
Profession- and job-related social events such as mixers are viewed by organizations and individuals as incubators of interpersonal ties, as arenas in which individuals can initiate new and different contacts. Theory and evidence on network dynamics, however, suggests that such outcomes may be unlikely, because past ties constrain future contacts, and because homophily inhibits contact between different types of people. We investigate whether guests at a social mixer "mix" despite these influences.
To study the effects of new information technologies (IT) on productivity, we have assembled a unique data set on plants in one narrowly defined industry?valve manufacturing?and analyze several plant-level mechanisms through which IT could promote productivity growth. The empirical analysis reveals three main results. First, plants that adopt new IT-enhanced equipment also shift their business strategies by producing more customized valve products.
This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict which portfolio managers will produce above market returns for their investors. This paper provides empirical evidence that sorting on the estimated alphas populates the top and bottom deciles not with the best and worst funds, but with those having the greatest estimation error.
Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that it significantly predicts future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not.
We investigated two types of metaphors in stock market commentary. Agent metaphors describe price trajectories as volitional actions, whereas object metaphors describe them as movements of inanimate objects. Study 1 examined the consequences of commentators? metaphors for their investor audience. Agent metaphors, compared with object metaphors and non-metaphoric descriptions, caused investors to expect price trend continuance. The remaining studies examined preconditions, the features of a price trend that evoke agent vs. object metaphors.
We investigated two types of metaphors in stock market commentary. Agent metaphors describe price trajectories as volitional actions, whereas object metaphors describe them as movements of inanimate objects. Study 1 examined the consequences of commentators? metaphors for their investor audience. Agent metaphors, compared with object metaphors and non-metaphoric descriptions, caused investors to expect price trend continuance. The remaining studies examined preconditions, the features of a price trend that evoke agent vs. object metaphors.
Explicit presence of reorganization in addition to liquidation leads to conflicts of interest between borrowers and lenders. In the first-best outcome, reorganization adds value to both parties via higher debt capacity, lower credit spreads, and improved overall firm value. If control of the ex ante reorganization timing and the ex post decision to liquidate is given to borrowers, most of the benefits are appropriated by borrowers ex post. Lenders can restore the first-best outcome by seizing this control or by the ex post transfer of control rights.
Explicit presence of reorganization in addition to liquidation leads to conflicts of interest between borrowers and lenders. In the first-best outcome, reorganization adds value to both parties via higher debt capacity, lower credit spreads, and improved overall firm value. If control of the ex ante reorganization timing and the ex post decision to liquidate is given to borrowers, most of the benefits are appropriated by borrowers ex post. Lenders can restore the first-best outcome by seizing this control or by the ex post transfer of control rights.
Results from two groups of biculturals (Hong Kong undergraduates, Chinese Americans) and a group of European Americans in two studies showed that in the presence of applicable cues of a culture, individuals with expert knowledge in the culture spontaneously make inferences about the culture's moral values, producing a Stroop-like effect. Although both biculturals and European Americans made spontaneous cultural inferences from American cultural cues, only biculturals made spontaneous inferences from Chinese cultural cues.
We examine the predictive power of the dividend yield for forecasting future excess returns, cashflows, and interest rates. The ability of the dividend yield to predict excess returns is best visible at short horizons with the short rate as an additional regressor. At short horizons, the short rate strongly negatively predicts excess returns, while at long horizons, the predictive power of the dividend yield is weak. These results are robust in international data and are not due to lack of power.
We consider stock markets in 20 countries to investigate whether the accrual anomaly (Sloan 1996), characterized by U.S. stock prices overweighting the role of accrual persistence, is a local manifestation of a global phenomenon. We explore whether the occurrence of the anomaly is related to country differences in accounting and institutional structures, and examine alternative explanations for its occurrence. We find stock prices overweight accruals in general, with accruals overweighting occurring in countries with a common law relative to a code law tradition.
This paper examines uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) and the expectations hypotheses of the term structure (EHTS) at both short and long horizons. The statistical evidence against UIRP is mixed and is currency- not horizon-dependent. Economically, the deviations from UIRP are less pronounced than previously documented. The evidence against the EHTS is statistically more uniform, but, economically, actual spreads and theoretical spreads (spreads constructed under the null of the EHTS) do not behave very differently, especially at long horizons.
The authors propose that individual differences in assertiveness play a critical role in perceptions about leaders. In contrast to prior work that focused on linear effects, the authors argue that individuals seen either as markedly low in assertiveness or as high in assertiveness are generally appraised as less effective leaders. Moreover, the authors claim that observers' perceptions of leaders as having too much or too little assertiveness are widespread.
We consider organizations that optimally choose the level of adaptation to a changing environment when coordination among specialized tasks is a concern. Adaptive organizations provide employees with flexibility to tailor their tasks to local information. Coordination is maintained by limiting specialization and improving communication. Alternatively, by letting employees stick to some pre-agreed action plan, organizations can ensure coordination without communication, regardless of the extent of specialization.
We consider organizations that optimally choose the level of adaptation to a changing environment when coordination among specialized tasks is a concern. Adaptive organizations provide employees with flexibility to tailor their tasks to local information. Coordination is maintained by limiting specialization and improving communication. Alternatively, by letting employees stick to some pre-agreed action plan, organizations can ensure coordination without communication, regardless of the extent of specialization.
Weak public institutions, including high levels of corruption, characterize many developing countries. We demonstrate that this feature has important implications for the design of monetary policymaking institutions. We find that a pegged exchange rate or dollarization, while sometimes prescribed as a solution to the credibility problem, is typically not appropriate for countries with poor institutions. Such an arrangement is inferior to a Rogoff-style conservative central banker, whose optimal degree of conservatism is proportional to the quality of institutions.
Not all first impressions have equal longevity. Which kinds of impression have the greatest mobility--downward and upward--over the course of acquaintanceships? Previous research has indicated that first impressions of extraversion (E) have greater longitudinal stability than first impressions of other Big Five traits: agreeableness (A), conscientiousness (C), emotional stability (ES), and openness (O). In this article, we propose an inferential account of E impression stability.
The conference paper by Johnson (2006, Review of Accounting Studies, forthcoming) develops an incomplete-contracting transfer pricing model with a number of novel features: taxation, sequential investments, and intangible assets being transferred. This discussion aims to disentangle these features so as to highlight those that are the key drivers of the results. Moreover, I show that some of the results can be generalized to settings involving a greater level of technological interdependency between the divisions.
Hospital diagnostic facilities, such as magentic resonance imaging centers, typically provide service to several diverse patient groups: outpatients, who are scheduled in advance; inpatients, whose demands are generated randomly during the day; and emergency patients, who must be served as soon as posssible. Our analysis focuses on two inter-related tasks: designing the outpatient appoitnment schedule, and establishing dynamic priority rules for admitting patients into service.
Recent empirical research documents that the strong short-term relationship between U.S. monetary aggregates on one side and inflation and real output on the other has mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. Using the direct estimate of flows of U.S. dollars abroad we find that domestic money (currency corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of U.S. inflation and real output.
The authors posit that women can rely on self-monitoring to overcome negative gender stereotypes in certain performance contexts. In a study of mixed-sex task groups, the authors found that female group members who were high self-monitors were considered more influential and more valuable contributors than women who were low self-monitors. Men benefited relatively less from self-monitoring behavior.
We examine the pricing of aggregate volatility risk in the cross-section of stock returns. Consistent with theory, we find that stocks with high sensitivities to innovations in aggregate volatility have low average returns. Stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility relative to the Fama and French (1993, Journal of Financial Economics 25, 2349) model have abysmally low average returns. This phenomenon cannot be explained by exposure to aggregate volatility risk.
We provide a new rationale for pyramidal ownership in family business groups. A pyramid allows a family to access all retained earnings of a firm it already controls to set up a new firm, and to share the new firm's nondiverted payoff with shareholders of the original firm. Our model is consistent with recent evidence of a small separation between ownership and control in some pyramids, and can differentiate between pyramids and dual-class shares, even when either method can achieve the same deviation from one share–one vote.
The current research investigates whether observers blame leaders for organizational accidents even when these managers are known to be causally uninvolved. Past research finds that the public blames managers for organizational harm if the managers are perceived to have personally played a causal role. The present research argues that East Asian perceivers, who are culturally oriented to focus on the causal influence of groups [Menon, T., Morris, M. W., Chiu, C., & Hong, Y. (1999). Culture and the construal of agency: Attribution to individual versus group dispositions.
The provision of choice is one of the most common vehicles through which managers empower employees in organizations. Although past psychological and organizational research persuasively suggests that choice confers personal agency, and is thus intrinsically motivating, emerging research indicates that there could be potential pitfalls. In this chapter, we examine the various factors that could influence the effects of choice. Specifically, we examine individual-level factors such as the chooser's socioeconomic status and cultural background.
Multidivisional firms frequently rely on external market prices in order to value internal transactions across profit centers. This paper examines the transfer pricing problem in a setting in which an upstream division has monopoly power in selling a proprietary component both to a downstream division within the same firm and to external customers. When internal transfers are valued at the prevailing market price, the resulting transactions are distorted by double marginalization.
This 2005 roundtable addressed stock market valuation and its implications for a number of important corporate financial management functions, including internal performance evaluation and capital budgeting. Panelists included Tom Copeland of MIT, Bennett Stewart of Stern Stewart, Trevor Harris of Morgan Stanley, Stephen O'Byrne of Shareholder Value Advisors, Justin Pettit of UBS, David Wessels of University of Pennsylvania, and Don Chew of Morgan Stanley. John Martin of Baylor University and Sheridan Titman of University of Texas at Austin moderated.
This 2005 roundtable aimed to present corporate managers and academics with a more accurate picture of how influential and sophisticated investors really think and make decisions. Panelists included Andrew Alford of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Michael Corasaniti of Pequot Capital, Steve Galbraith of Maverick Capital, Mitch Julis of Canyon Capital, Andrew Lacey of Lazard Asset Management, Michael Mauboussin of Legg Mason, Henry McVey of Morgan Stanley, and Stephen Penman of Columbia University. Trevor Harris of Morgan Stanley moderated the discussion.
The authors argue that high self-monitors may be more sensitive to the status implications of social exchange and more effective in managing their exchange relations to elicit conferrals of status than low self-monitors. In a series of studies, they found that high self-monitors were more accurate in perceiving the status dynamics involved both in a set of fictitious exchange relations and in real relationships involving other members of their social group.
Many corporate executives view private equity as a last resort, as expensive capital that should be tapped only by companies that don't have access to presumably cheaper public equity. The reality of private equity, however, is more complex, and potentially quite rewarding, for both shareholders and management. This paper surveys some of the academic work on the costs and benefits of public vs. private equity, contrasting the private equity investment process with its public counterpart and exploring how such a process may add value.
We analyze the relationship between conglomerates' internal capital markets and the efficiency of economy-wide capital allocation, and we identify a novel cost of conglomeration that arises from an equilibrium framework. Because of financial market imperfections engendered by imperfect investor protection, conglomerates that engage in winner-picking (Stein, 1997 [Internal capital markets and the competition for corporate resources.
The consumer electronics industry has been flat for several years. Hopes are now being pinned on the emergence of home networks. The theory goes that if consumers were able to "internetwork": that is, connect all their gadgets—from televisions to personal computers to digital video players to phones and anything in between—they would rush out to buy new toys and devices.
This paper investigates the interaction between synergies and internal agency conflicts that emerges endogenously in multi-division firms. A divisional manager's entrenchment choice depends directly on the specificity of her division's assets, because the specificity governs whether entrenchment activities reduce the likelihood of her division being divested. The presence of synergies, by modifying the difference between the value of assets in their current use and in alternative uses, may alter the divisional manager's entrenchment incentive.
The provision of choice in terms of how people use goods and services has been proposed as a vehicle of improvement of social welfare. This article highlights some of the costs and benefits of creating choice, and it discusses how much choice policy makers and other agents (e.g., employers, retailers) should ideally grant and in what form they should grant it.
Narcissism has received increased attention in the past few decades as a sub-clinical individual difference with important everyday consequences, such as self-enhancement in perceptions of one's own behavior and attributes. The most widespread measure used by non-clinical researchers, the 40-item Narcissistic Personality Inventory or NPI-40, captures a range of different facets of the construct but its length may prohibit its use in settings where time pressure and respondent fatigue are major concerns.
Time preference is a key determinant of occupational choice and investments in human capital. Since careers are characterized by different wage growth prospects, individual discount rates play an important role in the relative valuation of jobs or occupations. We predict that individuals with lower discount rates are more likely to select into jobs or occupations with steeper wage profiles. To test this hypothesis we use smoking as an instrument for time preference.
Membership in certain intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), such as the World Trade Organization, has long been argued to stimulate trade. Yet, evidence linking IGOs to trade is mixed. We argue that identifying the influence of IGOs requires attention not only to the institutions IGOs enact, but to the network through which they enact them. We incorporate the full set of IGOs by using shared-IGO membership to create a network of connectivity between countries.
We show that equity market liberalizations, on average, lead to a one percent increase in annual real economic growth over a five-year period. The effect is robust to alternative definitions of liberalization and does not reflect variation in the world business cycle. The effect also remains intact when liberalization is instrumented with quality of institutions-variables that explain liberalization but not growth and when a growth opportunity measure is included in the regression. Capital account liberalization has a less robust effect on growth than equity market liberalization has.
This paper examines inventory management from an incentive perspective. We show that when a manager has private information about future attainable revenues, the residual income performance measure based on historical cost can achieve optimal (second-best) incentives with regard to managerial effort as well as production and sales decisions. The LIFO (last-in—first-out) inventory flow rule is shown to be preferable to the FIFO (first-in—first-out) rule for the purpose of aligning incentives.
We propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regime-switching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a number of emerging markets exhibit time-varying integration. Some markets appear more integrated than one might expect based on prior knowledge of investment restrictions. Other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets.
We provide a formal treatment of both static and dynamic portfolio choice using the Disappointment Aversion preferences of Gul (1991. Econometrica 59(3), 667-686), which imply asymmetric aversion to gains versus losses. Our dynamic formulation nests the standard CRRA asset allocation problem as a special case. Using realistic data generating processes, we find reasonable equity portfolio allocations for disappointment averse investors with utility functions exhibiting low curvature.
Dispersion in investor beliefs and short-selling constraints can lead to stock market bubbles. This paper argues that firms, unlike investors, can exploit such bubbles by issuing new shares at inflated prices. This lowers the cost of capital and increases real investment. Perhaps surprisingly, large bubbles are not eliminated in equilibrium nor do large bubbles necessarily imply large distortions. Using the variance of analysts?
We survey the literature analyzing the price formation and trading process, and the consequences of market organization for price discovery and welfare. We offer a synthesis of the theoretical microfoundations and empirical approaches. Within this framework, we confront adverse selection, inventory costs and market power theories to the evidence on transactions costs and price impact. Building on these results, we proceed to an equilibrium analysis of policy issues.