Interest Rates and Inflation: What’s Next for the Federal Reserve?
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Professor Pierre Yared describes why the U.S. economy is unlikely to see an economic downturn comparable with the 1970s.
Preservation of our financial stability and military dominance is on the line, and it depends on getting our debt problem under control, says Professor Pierre Yared.
The legendary investor recently took part in a wide-ranging discussion hosted by Columbia Business School’s Finance Division that covered the five main forces that contribute to the rise and decline of empires, his views on the Chinese economy, insights into his investment philosophy, and the role of AI in the investment industry.
Tomasz Piskorski, the Edward S. Gordon Professor of Real Estate in the Finance Division at CBS, reveals that U.S. banks' asset exposure to a recent rise in the interest rates has major implications for financial stability.
This paper studies systemic risk in the interbank market. We first establish that in the German interbank lending market, a few large banks intermediate funding flows between many smaller periphery banks. We then develop a network model in which banks trade off the costs and benefits of link formation to explain these patterns. The model is structurally estimated using banks' preferences as revealed by the observed network structure before the 2008 financial crisis.
We demonstrate a novel link between relationship-specific investments and risk in a setting where division managers operate under moral hazard and collaborate on joint projects. Specific investments increase efficiency at the margin. This expands the scale of operations and thereby adds to the compensation risk borne by the managers. Accounting for this investment/risk link overturns key findings from prior incomplete contracting studies.
Tomasz Piskorski is the Edward S. Gordon Professor of Real Estate in the Finance Division at Columbia Business School. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and serves on the Academic Research Council of the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Professor Piskorski earned a M.S. in Mathematics from New York University Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and a Ph.D. in Economics from New York University Stern School of Business.
Bank bond portfolios remained deeply underwater in the fourth quarter of 2022, reducing banks' access to liquidity in the first quarter when deposits became far more precious.
Todd Baker is a financial services executive whose career has led him from corporate law to C-suite strategic business leadership roles at several of the largest domestic and international banks and roles as an academic, consultant, writer, speaker and commentator on banking, financial technology, consumer financial access and regulation issues.
Brett House is Professor of Professional Practice in the Economics Division at Columbia Business School. His research and writing are focused on macroeconomics and international finance, with interests in fiscal issues, monetary policy, international trade, financial crises, and debt markets. His work has been published in peer-reviewed journals and international media.
Professor Jian Li joined Columbia Business School in 2021. She graduated with a PhD from the Joint Program of Financial Economics at the University of Chicago. Her research interest lies at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. She is particularly interested in how financial intermediaries affect the real economy and how different types of financial institutions can contribute to financial instability.
Ciamac C. Moallemi is the William von Mueffling Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering & Computer Science and in Mathematics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1996).
Harry Mamaysky is a Professor of Professional Practice at Columbia Business School, where he serves as the Director of the Program for Financial Studies. He is also on the Steering Committee of the Columbia-IBM Center for Blockchain and Technology. Harry teaches capital markets and asset pricing to MBA, Masters and PhD students, as well as Executive Education courses on the use of text data in finance, and on corporate bonds. He has consulted for a quantitative investment firm and for a nationally recognized statistical rating organization.
Professor Tano Santos is the Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Asset Management and Finance and the Academic Director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing at Columbia Business School, Columbia University, where he has taught since 2003. Previously he was an Associate Professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. At Columbia, he teaches courses on Value Investing, Modern Value, and Modern Political Economy.
For 29 years Michael has invested directly at the security level and indirectly as an asset allocator in traditional and alternative asset classes. He is a Managing Director, Head of Hedge Funds and Alternative Alpha, and on the Investment Committee at APG, a world leader in Environmental, Social and Governance Investing. Previously he was the Chief Investment Officer at MOV37 and Protege Partners.
Kairong Xiao is Roger F. Murray Associate Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. His research interests span financial intermediation, corporate finance, monetary economics, industrial organization, and political economy.
Professor Glasserman's research and teaching address risk management, quant finance, Monte Carlo simulation, statistics and operations. Prior to joining Columbia, Glasserman was with Bell Laboratories; he has also held visiting positions at Princeton University, NYU, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In 2011-2012, he was on leave from Columbia and working at the Office of Financial Research in the U.S. Treasury Department, where he continues to serve as a part-time consultant.
Political connections to a regime with an authoritarian history present a dilemma for firms during a democratic transition. Such connections provide an essential competitive advantage when the regime is in power but become a liability when a democratic transition results in regime change. This study theorizes that when mass protests expose the regime’s policy distortion and signal a high probability of regime turnover, firms may hedge against the risks associated with their political connections by engaging in philanthropy.
Advancements in data analytics and increased access to consumer data have revolutionized companies’ price discrimination capabilities. These technological advancements have not only changed how prices are determined but also who determines them, with companies increasingly relying on algorithms rather than humans to set prices. We examine consumers’ fairness perceptions of demographic price discrimination—a prevalent yet controversial practice that can trigger considerable consumer backlash—and find that it depends on who is responsible for setting prices.
With multinational corporations (MNCs) increasingly taking public stances on sociopolitical issues such as immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, and racism, it is imperative that International Business (IB) research keeps pace with normative societal debates. In this paper, we introduce the concept of corporate sociopolitical activism (SPA) to the IB literature and develop theory on why MNCs consistently or inconsistently engage in SPA in response to the same issue in their home country and a host country.
The extent of future climate change is largely a policy choice. We illuminate this choice with climate policy curves (CPCs), which link climate policies to subsequent global temperatures. The estimated downward sloping CPCs highlight the key trade-off between initial policy ambition, expressed via an overall effective carbon price, and the subsequent policy burden left for future generations. We also demonstrate how different CPCs can illustrate the range of climate policy paths towards attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
Immigrants are highly entrepreneurial. But, what is the broader relationship between high-skilled immigration and regional entrepreneurship activity beyond the ventures that immigrants establish themselves? Using administrative data on newly awarded H-1B visas in the United States, we document a positive relationship between highskilled immigration and regional entrepreneurship. A doubling of immigrants to a metropolitan statistical area is followed by a 6% increase in entrepreneurship within three years.
We propose that social-media users’ own post histories are an underused yet valuable resource for studying fake-news sharing. By extracting textual cues from their prior posts, and contrasting their prevalence against random social-media users and others (e.g., those with similar socio-demographics, political news-sharers, and fact-check sharers), researchers can identify cues that distinguish fake-news sharers, predict those most likely to share fake news, and identify promising constructs to build interventions. Our research includes studies along these lines.
Non-informational cues, such as facial expressions, can significantly influence judgments and interpersonal impressions. While past research has explored how smiling affects business outcomes in offline or in-store contexts, relatively less is known about how smiling influences consumer choice in e-commerce settings even when there is no face-to-face interaction.
Previous research has shown that consumers respond differently to decisions made by humans versus algorithms. Many tasks, however, are not performed by humans anymore but entirely by algorithms. In fact, consumers increasingly encounter algorithm-controlled products, such as robotic vacuum cleaners or smart refrigerators, which are steered by different types of algorithms. Building on insights from computer science and consumer research on algorithm perception, this research investigates how consumers respond to different types of algorithms within these products.