Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
As the debate over banking reform continues, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the anemic market value of America's banks. The market-to-book value ratio of U.S. banks — an indicator of market perceptions of their future cash flow-generating potential — remains in the tank. This ratio averaged between 1.8 and 2.9 from 2000 until mid-2007, but then plunged to an average of between 0.9 and 1.3.
As the debate over banking reform continues, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the anemic market value of America's banks. The market-to-book value ratio of U.S. banks — an indicator of market perceptions of their future cash flow-generating potential — remains in the tank. This ratio averaged between 1.8 and 2.9 from 2000 until mid-2007, but then plunged to an average of between 0.9 and 1.3.
What is the role of leaders in large organizations? We propose a model in which a leader helps to overcome a misalignment of followers' incentives that inhibits coordination while adapting the organization to a changing environment. Good leadership requires vision and special personality traits such as conviction or resoluteness to enhance the credibility of mission statements and to effectively rally agents around them.
What is the role of leaders in large organizations? We propose a model in which a leader helps to overcome a misalignment of followers' incentives that inhibits coordination while adapting the organization to a changing environment. Good leadership requires vision and special personality traits such as conviction or resoluteness to enhance the credibility of mission statements and to effectively rally agents around them.
A high quality customer database is a cornerstone of successful interactive marketing strategies and tactics. Based on the notion that customer data quality is not only a technical but also an organizational problem, this study develops and tests an organizational learning framework of the relationship between organizational processes, customer data quality and firm performance. The findings show that high quality customer data impact both customer and business performance and that the most important driver of customer data quality comes from the executive suite.
We show that counting downward while performing a task shortens the perceived duration of the task compared to counting upward. People perceive that less time has elapsed when they were counting downward versus upward while using a product (Studies 1 and 3) or watching geometrical shapes (Study 2). The counting direction effect is obtained using both prospective and retrospective time judgments (Study 3), but only when the count range begins with the number “1” (Study 2).
We present a method that dynamically designs elicitation questions for estimating preferences, focusing on the parameters of cumulative prospect theory and time discounting models. Typically these parameters are elicited by presenting decision makers with a series of choices between alternatives, gambles or delayed payments. The method dynamically (i.e., adaptively) designs such choices to optimize the information provided by each choice, while leveraging the distribution of the parameters across decision makers (heterogeneity) and capturing response error.
We present a method that dynamically designs elicitation questions for estimating preferences, focusing on the parameters of cumulative prospect theory and time discounting models. Typically these parameters are elicited by presenting decision makers with a series of choices between alternatives, gambles or delayed payments. The method dynamically (i.e., adaptively) designs such choices to optimize the information provided by each choice, while leveraging the distribution of the parameters across decision makers (heterogeneity) and capturing response error.
We provide insights into earnings quality from a survey of 169 CFOs of public companies and in-depth interviews of 12 CFOs and two standard setters.
It is standard in economics to assume that assets are normal goods and demand is downward sloping in price. This view has its theoretical foundation in the classic single period model of Arrow with one risky asset and one risk free asset, where both are assumed to be held long, and preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing relative risk aversion.
We develop a liability driven investment framework that incorporates downside risk penalties for not meeting liabilities. The shortfall between the asset and liabilities can be valued as an option which swaps the value of the endogenously determined optimal portfolio for the value of the liabilities. The optimal portfolio selection exhibits endogenous risk aversion and as the funding ratio deviates from the fully funded case in both directions, effective risk aversion decreases.
In one laboratory study and one field study conducted with a large, representative sample of respondents, we show that seemingly innocuous questions that precede a conjoint task, such as demographic and usage-related screening questions can alter the price sensitivities recovered from the main conjoint task. The findings demonstrate that whether these prior questions use broad response categories (i.e., few scale points) or narrow response categories (i.e., many scale points) systematically influences consumers' price sensitivity in a CBC (Choice Based Conjoint) study.
While customer management has become a top priority for practitioners and academics, little is known about how managers actually make customer management decisions. Our study addresses this gap and uses the adaptive decision maker as well as the fast and frugal heuristics frameworks to gain a better understanding of managerial decision making. Using the process-tracing tool MouselabWEB, we presented sales managers in retail banking with three typical customer management prediction tasks.
The 2008 financial crisis exemplifies significant uncertainties in corporate financing conditions. We develop a unified dynamic q- theoretic framework where firms have both a precautionary-savings motive and a market-timing motive for external financing and payout decisions, induced by stochastic financing conditions. The model predicts (1) cuts in investment and payouts in bad times and equity issues in good times even without immediate financing needs; (2) a positive correlation between equity issuance and stock repurchase waves.
People habitually use round prices as first offers in negotiations. We test whether the specificity with which a first offer is expressed has appreciable effects on first-offer recipients' perceptions and strategic choices. Studies 1a & b establish that first-offer recipients make greater counteroffer adjustments to round versus precise offers. Study 2 demonstrates this phenomenon in an interactive, strategic exchange.
People habitually use round prices as first offers in negotiations. We test whether the specificity with which a first offer is expressed has appreciable effects on first-offer recipients' perceptions and strategic choices. Studies 1a & b establish that first-offer recipients make greater counteroffer adjustments to round versus precise offers. Study 2 demonstrates this phenomenon in an interactive, strategic exchange.
Global economic transactions such as foreign direct investment (FDI) must extend over an institutional abyss between the jurisdiction, and therefore protection, of the states involved. Intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) represent an important attempt to span this abyss. The authors use a network approach to demonstrate that the connections between two countries, through joint membership in the same IGOs, are associated with a large positive influence on the FDI that flows between them.
Modern electronic markets have been characterized by a relentless drive toward faster decision making. Significant technological investments have led to dramatic improvements in latency, the delay between a trading decision and the resulting trade execution. We describe a theoretical model for the quantitative valuation of latency. Our model measures the trading frictions created by the presence of latency, by considering the optimal execution problem of a representative investor.
Past work has argued that comparison mindsets affect stereotyping: perceivers in a difference mindset stereotype less than those in a similarity mindset, contrasting their judgments of an individual away from their representation of the group. Here, we argue that the self can also act as a reference point, implying that the impact of comparison mindsets depends on what is focal.
At a time of historic challenges to the viability of the Eurozone, we assess the contribution of the EU and the Euro to equity market integration in Europe. We use a simple and essentially model free measure of bilateral market segmentation: two countries are segmented if there is a wide divergence in the valuations of their industries. We first establish that segmentation is significantly lower for EU versus non-EU members.
Can event marketing contribute to brand equity? A field study with consumers participating in different types of events indicates that event attendance increases brand equity and that brand experience is the most important mediator. Brand attitudes mediate the relation between events and brand equity only for certain types of events (namely, trade and street events, but not pop-up shops and sponsored events). Implications of the results for event marketing theory and practice are discussed.
Research has shown that subtle health claims used by food marketers influence pre-intake expectations, but no study has examined how they influence individuals' post-consumption experience of satiety after a complete meal and how this varies according to the value placed on food taste. In two experiments, we assess how labeling a pasta salad as "healthy" or "hearty" influences self-reported satiety, consumption volume, and subsequent consumption of another food.
The diagnosticity of feelings in judgment depends not only on their representativeness and relevance, but also on people's trust in their feelings in general. Trust in feelings is the degree to which individuals believe that their feelings generally point toward the "right" direction in judgments and decisions.
Over the course of a repeated game, players often exhibit learning in selecting their best response. Research in economics and marketing has identified two key types of learning rules: belief and reinforcement. It has been shown that players use either one of these learning rules or a combination of them, as in the Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) model. Accounting for such learning may help in understanding and predicting the outcomes of games.
Over the course of a repeated game, players often exhibit learning in selecting their best response. Research in economics and marketing has identified two key types of learning rules: belief and reinforcement. It has been shown that players use either one of these learning rules or a combination of them, as in the Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) model. Accounting for such learning may help in understanding and predicting the outcomes of games.
We introduce the pathwise optimization (PO) method, a new convex optimization procedure to produce upper and lower bounds on the optimal value (the “price”) of a high-dimensional optimal stopping problem. The PO method builds on a dual characterization of optimal stopping problems as optimization problems over the space of martingales, which we dub the martingale duality approach. We demonstrate via numerical experiments that the PO method produces upper bounds of a quality comparable with state-of-the-art approaches, but in a fraction of the time required for those approaches.
We consider a trader who aims to liquidate a large position in the presence of an arbitrageur who hopes to profit from the trader's activity. The arbitrageur is uncertain about the trader's position and learns from observed price fluctuations. This is a dynamic game with asymmetric information. We present an algorithm for computing perfect Bayesian equilibrium behavior and conduct numerical experiments. Our results demonstrate that the trader's strategy differs significantly from one that would be optimal in the absence of the arbitrageur.
Seven studies show that compared to people with lower trust in their feelings, those with higher trust in their feelings were better able to predict the outcome of a wide variety of future events, including (a) future movie successes, (b) the 2008 U.S. Democratic Presidential nominee, (c) the winner of <em>American Idol</em>, (d) movements of the Dow Jones Index, and even (e) the weather.
The modal scientific approach in consumer research is to deduce hypotheses from existing theory about relationships between theoretic constructs, test those relationships experimentally, and then show “process” evidence via moderation and mediation. This approach has its advantages, but other styles of research also have much to offer. We distinguish among alternative research styles in terms of their philosophical orientation (theory-driven vs. phenomenon-driven) and their intended contribution (understanding a substantive phenomenon vs. building or expanding theory).
We study a seller that starts with an initial inventory of goods, has a target horizon over which to sell the goods, and is subject to a set of financial milestone constraints on the revenues and sales that need to be achieved at different time points along the sales horizon. We characterize the revenue maximizing dynamic pricing policy for the seller and highlight the effect of revenue and sales milestones on its structure.
We study a seller that starts with an initial inventory of goods, has a target horizon over which to sell the goods, and is subject to a set of financial milestone constraints on the revenues and sales that need to be achieved at different time points along the sales horizon. We characterize the revenue maximizing dynamic pricing policy for the seller and highlight the effect of revenue and sales milestones on its structure.
This paper extends the contextual perspective of network evolution to account for a more complete process of network evolution by showing that the impacts of fads and fashions on the formation and dissolution of interorganizational networks are asymmetric. Building on contact theory, this paper proposes that direct contact affords a flow of knowledge that counters tendencies to social conformity. Network dissolution differs from network formation in that partners have already obtained direct information.
In this report, the authors quantify the strategic relationship between brand management (brand equity) and customer management (the components of CLV), and demonstrate the role that marketing activities play in this relationship. They examine a unique database from the U.S. automobile market, comprised of 10 years of survey-based brand equity measures as well as acquisition rates, retention rates, and customer profitability.
We consider the optimal design of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in a dynamic setting in which a mortgage underwriter with limited liability can engage in costly hidden effort to screen borrowers and can sell loans to investors. We show that (i) the timing of payments to the underwriter is the key incentive mechanism, (ii) the maturity of the optimal contract can be short, and that (iii) bundling mortgages is efficient as it allows investors to learn about underwriter effort more quickly, an information enhancement effect.
We present a novel linear program for the approximation of the dynamic programming cost-to-go function in high- dimensional stochastic control problems. LP approaches to approximate DP have typically relied on a natural “projection” of a well-studied linear program for exact dynamic programming. Such programs restrict attention to approximations that are lower bounds to the optimal cost-to-go function.
We consider a general class of network revenue management problems, where mean demand at each point in time is determined by a vector of prices, and the objective is to dynamically adjust these prices so as to maximize expected revenues over a finite sales horizon. A salient feature of our problem is that the decision maker can only observe realized demand over time, but does not know the underlying demand function which maps prices into instantaneous demand rate.
We consider a general class of network revenue management problems, where mean demand at each point in time is determined by a vector of prices, and the objective is to dynamically adjust these prices so as to maximize expected revenues over a finite sales horizon. A salient feature of our problem is that the decision maker can only observe realized demand over time, but does not know the underlying demand function which maps prices into instantaneous demand rate.
An fMRI study was conducted with unfamiliar and familiar (strong and weak) brands to assess linguistic encoding and retrieval processes, and the use of declarative and experiential information, in brand evaluations. As expected, activations in brain areas associated with linguistic encoding were higher for unfamiliar brands, but activations in brain areas associated with information retrieval were higher for strong brands. Interestingly, weak brands were engaged simultaneously in both processes.
This paper argues that there is a Coasean Bargain available to banks, Long-term Investors, and Bank Regulators around a particular form of "Contingent Capital." By purchasing rights to issue equity in crisis events at a pre-specified price from Long-term Investors, banks can ensure that they will have sufficient regulatory capital available when they need it most: in a crisis. By selling these rights (effectively, a form of crisis insurance) long-term investors can monetize their counter-cyclical investments strategies in banks and, thus, obtain an adequate return as long-term investors.
A series of laboratory and field experiments test the effect of considering options sequentially (one at a time) versus simultaneously (all at once) on an individual's satisfaction with and commitment to their chosen option. The results converge to reveal a detrimental effect of choosing from sequentially presented options. Unlike simultaneously presented options, the sequential presentation of options evokes hope for a better option to become available in the future and regret from potentially passing one up.
This monograph presents existing and new research on three approaches to multiagent incentives. The goal of all three approaches is to find theories that better explain observed institutions than the standard approach has.
Whether done intentionally or out of habit, many behaviors are repeated. Prior research has demonstrated that past behavior is an excellent predictor of future behavior in contexts as varied as media use, eating and drinking, substance abuse, voting, and travel mode choice, just to name a few. Although no one denies the evidence regarding the prevalence of repeat behavior and the predictive power of past behavior, two issues remain intensely debated
Using informant reports on working professionals, we explored the role of listening in interpersonal influence and how listening may account for at least some of the relationship between personality and influence. The results extended prior work which has suggested that listening is positively related to influence for informational and relational reasons.
Using informant reports on working professionals, we explored the role of listening in interpersonal influence and how listening may account for at least some of the relationship between personality and influence. The results extended prior work which has suggested that listening is positively related to influence for informational and relational reasons.
In social dilemmas, negotiations, and other forms of strategic interaction, mind-reading — intuiting another party's preferences and intentions — has an important impact on an actor's own behavior. In this paper, we present a model of how perceivers shift between social projection (using one's own mental states to intuit a counterpart's mental states) and stereotyping (using general assumptions about a group to intuit a counterpart's mental states).
We examine decision makers' use of tacit linguistic intuitions and explicit linguistic knowledge for brand name translations from English to Chinese. We present a market study, which reveals that managers intuitively use linguistic sound and meaning characteristics, that is, which sounds and meanings best fit for the Chinese translation of the English names. A subsequent experiment shows that generalized types of existing name approaches (that is, whether the names are translated based on sound or based on meaning) are employed as explicit benchmark standards for new names.
We consider three "crisis shocks" related to key features of the 2007-2008 crisis, for emerging and developed economies: (1) the collapse of global trade, (2) the contraction of credit supply, and (3) selling pressure on firms' equity. Using an international cross-section of firms, we find that returns' sensitivities to these shocks imply large and statistically significant influences on residual equity returns during the crisis period (after controlling for normal risk factors that are associated with expected returns).
Using informant reports on working professionals, we explored the role of listening in interpersonal influence and how listening may account for at least some of the relationship between personality and influence. The results extended prior work which has suggested that listening is positively related to influence for informational and relational reasons.
Using informant reports on working professionals, we explored the role of listening in interpersonal influence and how listening may account for at least some of the relationship between personality and influence. The results extended prior work which has suggested that listening is positively related to influence for informational and relational reasons.