Moderating Loss Aversion: Loss Aversion Has Moderators but Reports of its Death are Greatly Exaggerated
Loss aversion, the principle that losses impact decision making more than equivalent gains, is a fundamental idea in consumer behavior and decision making, though its existence has recently been called into question. Across five unique samples (Ntotal = 17,720), we tested several moderators of loss aversion, which supported a preference construction account. Across studies, more domain knowledge and experience were associated with lower loss aversion, though people of all knowledge and experience levels were loss averse.
How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic
Utilizing transaction-level financial data, we explore how household consumption responded to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As case numbers grew and cities and states enacted shelter-in-place orders, Americans began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. In the first half of March 2020, individuals increased total spending by over 40% across a wide range of categories.
In the Mood to Consume: Effect of Sunshine on Credit Card Spending
Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy
We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and lack of monetary policy commitment. A government without commitment chooses excessively countercyclical inflation ex post, which leads risk-averse lenders to require a risk premium ex ante.
Incorporating Consumer Product Categorizations into Shelf Layout Design
Using functional neuroimaging to advance entrepreneurial cognitive research
The Influence of Pensions on Labor Supply
We cast new light on the influence of pensions on labor supply. To do so, we compare the retention patterns of pension-eligible workers to those of pension-ineligible ones, allowing us to non-parametrically identify the counterfactual in large, administrative data. Pensions exert a retentive force as workers approach the eligibility threshold and apply strong expulsive pressure thereafter (since employees lose pension wealth by remaining employed once eligible).
Does Poverty Negate the Impact of Social Norms on Cheating?
Firm Volatility in Granular Networks
Sequential Information Design
We study games of incomplete information as both the information structure and the extensive-form vary. An analyst may know the payoff-relevant data but not the players' private information, nor the extenstive-form that governs their play. Alternatively, a designer may be able to build a mechanism from these ingredients. We characterize all outcomes that can arise in an equilibrium of some extensive-form with some information structure.
The Impact of High-Flow Nasal Cannula Use on Patient Mortality and the Availability of Mechanical Ventilators in COVID-19
Choosing News Topics to Explain Stock Market Returns
We analyze methods for selecting topics in news articles to explain stock returns. We find, through empirical and theoretical results, that supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation (sLDA) implemented through Gibbs sampling in a stochastic EM algorithm will often overfit returns to the detriment of the topic model. We obtain better out-of-sample performance through a random search of plain LDA models. A branching procedure that reinforces effective topic assignments often performs best. We test these methods on an archive of over 90,000 news articles about S&P 500 firms.
Commitment vs. Flexibility with Costly Verification
A principal faces an agent who is better informed but biased toward higher actions. She can verify the agent's information and specify his permissible actions. We show that if the verification cost is small enough, a threshold with an escape clause (TEC) is optimal: the agent either chooses an action below a threshold or requests verification and the efficient action above the threshold. For higher costs, however, the principal may require verification only for intermediate actions, dividing the delegation set.
Prior-Independent Optimal Auctions
Auctions are widely used in practice. While also extensively studied in the literature, most of the developments rely on the significant common prior assumption. We study the design of optimal prior-independent selling mechanisms: buyers do not have any information about their competitors and the seller does not know the distribution of values, but only a general class it belongs to.
The future of women in psychological science
There has been extensive discussion about gender gaps in representation and career advancement in the sciences. However, psychological science itself has yet to be the focus of discussion or systematic review, despite our field’s investment in questions of equity, status, well-being, gender bias, and gender disparities. In the present article, we consider 10 topics relevant for women’s career advancement in psychological science.
Risky choice frames shift the structure and emotional valence of internal arguments: A query theory account of the unusual disease problem
We examine a Query Theory account of risky choice framing effects — when risky choices are framed as a gain, people are generally risky averse but, when an equivalent choice is framed as a loss, people are risk seeking. Consistent with Query Theory, frames affected the structure of participants’ arguments: gain frame participants listed arguments favoring the certain option earlier and more often than loss frame participants. These argumentative shifts mediated framing effects; manipulating participants initial arguments attenuated them.
Accounting for Intangible Assets: Suggested Solutions
Current accounting practice expenses many investments in intangible assets to the income statement, confusing earnings from current revenues with investments to gain future revenues. This has led to increasing calls to book those investments to the balance sheet. Drawing on the relevant research, this paper proposes solutions for the accounting for intangible assets that contrast with balance sheet recognition, and compares them to current practice and the IFRS standards that dictate practice.
Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?
Common wisdom holds that uncertainty impedes trade—yet we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and variance in returns to exporting. This implies that trade can increase or decrease with uncertainty, depending on preferences. Under general conditions on preferences, we characterize the importance of these forces using a sufficient statistics approach.
Destructive Creation at Work: How Financial Distress Spurs Entrepreneurship
Using US Census employer-employee matched data, I show that employer financial distress accelerates the exit of employees to found start-ups. This effect is particularly evident when distressed firms are less able to enforce contracts restricting employee mobility into competing firms. Entrepreneurs exiting financially distressed employers earn higher wages prior to the exit and after founding start-ups, compared to entrepreneurs exiting non-distressed firms. Consistent with distressed firms losing higher-quality workers, their start-ups have higher average employment and payroll growth.
Macro Marketing comes of Age
Vertical Integration, Supplier Behavior, and Quality Upgrading among Exporters
Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans
Companies that freeze defined benefit pension plans save the equivalent of 13.5% of the long-horizon payroll of current employees. Furthermore, firms with higher prospective accruals are more likely to freeze their plans. Cost savings would not be possible in a benchmark model in which i) all workers receive compensation equal to their marginal product and ii) workers value equally all identical-cost forms of pension benefits.
I Don't Know
Long Run Growth of Financial Data Technology
"Big data" financial technology raises concerns about market inefficiency. A common concern is that the technology might induce traders to extract others' information, rather than to produce information themselves. We allow agents to choose how much they learn about future asset values or about others' demands, and we explore how improvements in data processing shape these information choices, trading strategies and market outcomes. Our main insight is that unbiased technological change can explain a market-wide shift in data collection and trading strategies.
The Tail That Wags the Economy: Beliefs and Persistent Stagnation
The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with existing models. Our key premise is that agents don't know the true distribution of shocks, but use data to estimate it non-parametrically. Then, transitory events, especially extreme ones, generate persistent changes in beliefs and macro outcomes.
Transforming the Customer Experience through New Technologies
New technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT), Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR), Mixed Reality (MR), virtual assistants, chatbots, and robots, which are typically powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), are dramatically transforming the customer experience. In this paper, we offer a fresh typology of new technologies powered by AI and propose a new framework for understanding the role of new technologies on the customer/shopper journey.
Carbon Footprinting and Pricing Under Climate Concerns
The Past, Present, and Future of Marketing Strategy
DeSePtion: Dual Sequence Prediction and Adversarial Examples for Improved Fact-Checking
The increased focus on misinformation has spurred development of data and systems for detecting the veracity of a claim as well as retrieving authoritative evidence. The Fact Extraction and VERification (FEVER) dataset provides such a resource for evaluating end-to-end fact-checking, requiring retrieval of evidence from Wikipedia to validate a veracity prediction.
Testosterone reactivity to competition and competitive endurance in men and women
Introduction.
Uncertainties in Climate and Weather Extremes Increase the Cost of Carbon
Climate change has myriad physical and economic impacts. Even those that can be easily quantified indicate the need for ambitious climate action. Other climate impacts have yet to be quantified. We argue here that uncertainties in climate and weather extremes only further increase the social cost of carbon emissions.
The Past, Present, and Future of Consumer Research
The Past, Present, and Future of Customer Management
Autonomy in Consumer Choice
The Past, Present, and Future of Measurements and Methods in Marketing Analysis
The Past, Present, and Future of Innovation Research
The Past, Present, and Future of Brand Research
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of Covid-19: A Real-time Analysis
We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After verifying that our results for US post-war business cycle fluctuations are largely in line with the prevailing consensus, we proceed to study output and price fluctuations during COVID-19. We attribute two thirds of the decline in 2020:Q1 GDP to a negative shock to aggregate demand.
Biased Programmers? Or Biased Data? A Field Experiment in Operationalizing AI Ethics
Good Carry, Bad Carry
We distinguish between "good" and "bad" carry trades constructed from G-10 currencies. The good trades exhibit higher Sharpe ratios and sometimes positive return skewness, in contrast to the bad trades that have both substantially lower Sharpe ratios and highly negative return skewness. Surprisingly, good trades do not involve the most typical carry currencies like the Australian dollar and Japanese yen.
Power leads to action because it releases the psychological brakes on action
Why does power lead to action? Theories of power suggest it leads to action because it presses the psychological gas pedal. A review of two decades of research finds, instead, that power releases the psychological brakes on action. Power releases the psychological brakes on action by making failure seem less probable and feel less painful, thereby decreasing the downside risks of action. Power releases the psychological brakes on action by shrouding the feelings and thoughts of others, thereby diminishing the perceived social costs of action.
Repo Priority Right and the Bankruptcy Code
This paper shows that when the bankruptcy code protects the creditors' rights with no impairments to secured creditors, issuance of debt such as repo with exemption from automatic stay adds no value. When the bankruptcy process admits violations of absolute priority rules or results in collateral impairments to secured creditors, the liability structure includes short-term debt, with safe harbor protection when the pledged collateral satisfies a minimum liquidity threshold.
Should Hospitals Keep Their Patients Longer? The Role of Inpatient Care in Reducing Post-Discharge Mortality
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the National Quality Forum have endorsed the 30-day mortality rate as an important indicator of hospital quality. Concerns have been raised, however, as to whether post-discharge mortality rates are reasonable measures of hospital quality as they consider the frequency of an event that occurs after a patient is discharged and no longer under the watch and care of hospital staff. Estimating the causal effect of length-of-stay (LOS) on post-discharge mortality from retrospective data introduces a number of econometric challenges.
What Drives Anomaly Returns?
We decompose the returns of five well-known anomalies into cash flow and discount rate news. Common patterns emerge across the five factor portfolios and their mean variance efficient (MVE) combination. Whereas discount rate news predominates in market returns, systematic cash flow news drives the returns of anomaly portfolios and their MVE combination with the market portfolio. Anomaly cash flow and discount rate shocks are largely uncorrelated with market cash flow and discount rate shocks and with business cycle fluctuations.
The confidence gap predicts the gender pay gap among STEM graduates
Women make less than men in some science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields. While explanations for this gender pay gap vary, they have tended to focus on differences that arise for women and men after they have worked for a period of time. In this study we argue that the gender pay gap begins when women and men with earned degrees enter the workforce. Further, we contend the gender pay gap may arise due to cultural beliefs about the appropriateness of women and men for STEM professions that shape individuals’ self-beliefs in the form of self-efficacy.
Do Workers Comply with Salary History Bans? A Survey on Voluntary Disclosure, Adverse Selection, and Unraveling
Salary history bans forbid employers from asking job candidates to disclose their salaries. However, applicants can still volunteer this information. Our theoretical model predicts the effect of these laws varies by how workers comply. Our survey of Americans in the labor force finds candidates fall into three compliance types: 25% always disclose their salary whether asked or not, 17% never disclose, and 58% comply with the ban (disclosing only when asked). Importantly, compliance type varies by demographics (e.g.
New Methods in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
The Impact of Step-Down Unit Care on Patient Outcomes After Intensive Care Unit Discharge
Objectives:
To examine whether and how step-down unit admission after ICU discharge affects patient outcomes.
Design:
Retrospective study using an instrumental variable approach to remove potential biases from unobserved differences in illness severity for patients admitted to the step-down unit after ICU discharge.
Setting:
Ten hospitals in an integrated healthcare delivery system in Northern California.
Patients:
The Managerial Effects of Algorithmic Fairness Activism
How do ethical arguments affect AI adoption in business? We randomly expose business decision-makers to arguments used in AI fairness activism. Arguments emphasizing the inescapability of algorithmic bias lead managers to abandon AI for manual review by humans and report greater expectations about lawsuits and negative PR. These effects persist even when AI lowers gender and racial disparities, and when engineering investments to address AI fairness are feasible. Emphasis on status quo comparisons yields opposite effects.