Breaking the Cycle: How the News and Markets Created a Negative Feedback Loop in COVID-19
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
New research from CBS Professor Harry Mamaysky reveals how negativity in the news and markets can escalate a financial crisis.
Adapted from “Global Value Chains in Developing Countries: A Relational Perspective from Coffee and Garments,” by Laura Boudreau of Columbia Business School, Julia Cajal Grossi of the Geneva Graduate Institute, and Rocco Macchiavello of the London School of Economics.
Adapted from “Online Advertising as Passive Search,” by Raluca M. Ursu of New York University Stern School of Business, Andrey Simonov of Columbia Business School, and Eunkyung An of New York University Stern School of Business.
This paper from Columbia Business School, “Meaning of Manual Labor Impedes Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Products,” explores marketing solutions to some consumers’ resistance towards autonomous products. The study was co-authored by Emanuel de Bellis of the University of St. Gallen, Gita Johar of Columbia Business School, and Nicola Poletti of Cada.
Co-authored by John B. Donaldson of Columbia Business School, “The Macroeconomics of Stakeholder Equilibria,” proposes a model for a purely private, mutually beneficial financial agreement between worker and firm that keeps decision-making in the hands of stockholders while improving the employment contract for employees.
At Columbia Business School, our faculty members are at the forefront of research in their respective fields, offering innovative ideas that directly impact the practice of business today. A quick glance at our publication on faculty research, CBS Insights, will give you a sense of the breadth and immediacy of the insight our professors provide.
As a student at the School, this will greatly enrich your education. In Columbia classrooms, you are at the cutting-edge of industry, studying the practices that others will later adopt and teach. As any business leader will tell you, in a competitive environment, being first puts you at a distinct advantage over your peers. Learn economic development from Ray Fisman, the Lambert Family Professor of Social Enterprise and a rising star in the field, or real estate from Chris Mayer, the Paul Milstein Professor of Real Estate, a renowned expert and frequent commentator on complex housing issues. This way, when you complete your degree, you'll be set up to succeed.
Columbia Business School in conjunction with the Office of the Dean provides its faculty, PhD students, and other research staff with resources and cutting edge tools and technology to help push the boundaries of business research.
Specifically, our goal is to seamlessly help faculty set up and execute their research programs. This includes, but is not limited to:
All these activities help to facilitate and streamline faculty research, and that of the doctoral students working with them.
We investigate whether homeowners respond strategically to news of mortgage modification programs by defaulting on their mortgages. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in modification policy induced by U.S. state government lawsuits against Countrywide Financial Corporation, which agreed to offer modifications to seriously delinquent borrowers with subprime mortgages throughout the country. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that Countrywide's relative delinquency rate increased more than ten percent per month immediately after the program's announcement.
Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014)[CFR] evaluate the degree of bias in teacher value-added (VA) estimates using a “teacher switching” research design, regressing changes in mean test scores across cohorts on changes in mean teacher VA. Recent studies (Kane, Staiger, and Bacher-Hicks 2014, Rothstein 2014) have found that regressing changes in mean scores in the prior grade on changes in mean VA also yields a positive coefficient, a result we confirm in our data.
This research examines how oral haptics (due to hardness/softness or roughness/smoothness) related to foods influence mastication (i.e., degree of chewing) and orosensory perception (i.e., orally perceived fattiness), which in turn influence calorie estimation, subsequent food choices, and overall consumption volume. The results of five experimental studies show that, consistent with theories related to mastication and orosensory perception, oral haptics related to soft (vs. hard) and smooth (vs. rough) foods lead to higher calorie estimations.
We propose a new definition of skill as a general cognitive ability to either pick stocks or time the market at different times. We find evidence for stock picking in booms and for market timing in recessions. Moreover, the same fund managers that pick stocks well in expansions also time the market well in recessions. These fund managers significantly outperform other funds and passive benchmarks. Our results suggest a new measure of managerial ability that gives more weight to a fund's market timing in recessions and to a fund's stock picking in booms.
We propose a new definition of skill as a general cognitive ability to either pick stocks or time the market at different times. We find evidence for stock picking in booms and for market timing in recessions. Moreover, the same fund managers that pick stocks well in expansions also time the market well in recessions. These fund managers significantly outperform other funds and passive benchmarks. Our results suggest a new measure of managerial ability that gives more weight to a fund's market timing in recessions and to a fund's stock picking in booms.
Recent years have seen extensive investigation of the information aggregation properties of markets. However, relatively little is known about conditions under which a market will aggregate the private information of rational risk averse traders who optimize their portfolios over time; in particular, what features of a market encourage traders to ultimately reveal their private information through trades? We consider a market model involving finitely many informed risk-averse traders interacting with a market maker.
Advertising supported content sampling is ubiquitous in online markets for digital information goods. Yet, little is known about the profit impact of sampling when it serves the dual purpose of disclosing content quality and generating advertising revenue. This paper proposes an analytical framework to study the optimal content strategy for online publishers and shows how it is determined by characteristics of both the content market and the advertising market.
To date the effectiveness of inducing lower-calorie choices by providing consumers with calorie information has yielded mixed results. Here four controlled experiments show that adding dish-specific calorie information to menus (calorie posting) tends to result in lower-calorie choices. However, additionally grouping low-calorie dishes into a single "low-calorie" category (calorie organizing) ironically diminishes the positive effects of calorie posting. This outcome appears to be caused by the effect that grouping low-calorie options has on consumers' consideration sets.
This research examines how people react to nonconforming behaviors, such as entering a luxury boutique wearing gym clothes rather than an elegant outfit or wearing red sneakers in a professional setting. Nonconforming behaviors, as costly and visible signals, can act as a particular form of conspicuous consumption and lead to positive inferences of status and competence in the eyes of others. A series of studies demonstrates that people confer higher status and competence to nonconforming rather than conforming individuals.
Mobile advertising is one of the fastest-growing advertising formats. In 2013, global spending on mobile advertising was approximately $16.7 billion and it is expected to exceed $62.8 billion by 2017. The most prevalent type of mobile advertising is mobile display advertising (MDA), which takes the form of banners on mobile webpages and in mobile applications. This paper examines which product characteristics are likely to be associated with MDA campaigns that are effective in increasing consumers' favorable attitudes towards products and purchase intentions.
This essay in celebration of Grossman and Hart (1986) (GH) discusses how the introduction of incomplete contracts has fundamentally changed economists' perspectives on corporate finance and control. Before GH, the dominant theory in corporate finance was the tradeoff theory pitting the tax advantages of debt (relative to equity) against bankruptcy costs. After GH, this theory has been enriched by the introduction of control considerations and investor protection issues.
We model the multifaceted impact of pricing decisions in B2B contexts and show how a seller can develop optimal inter-temporal targeted pricing strategies to maximize long-term customer value. We empirically model the B2B customer's purchase decisions in an integrated fashion. In order to facilitate targeting and to capture the short and long-term dynamics of B2B customer purchasing, our modeling framework weaves together in a hierarchical Bayesian manner, multivariate copulas, a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model, and control functions for price endogeneity.
We model the multifaceted impact of pricing decisions in B2B contexts and show how a seller can develop optimal inter-temporal targeted pricing strategies to maximize long-term customer value. We empirically model the B2B customer's purchase decisions in an integrated fashion. In order to facilitate targeting and to capture the short and long-term dynamics of B2B customer purchasing, our modeling framework weaves together in a hierarchical Bayesian manner, multivariate copulas, a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model, and control functions for price endogeneity.
Not only are subjective feelings an integral part of many judgments and decisions, they can even lead to improved decisions and better predictions. Individuals who have learned to trust their feelings performed better in economic-negotiation games than their rational-thinking opponents. But emotions are not just relevant in negotiations and decisions. They also play a decisive role in forecasting future events. Candidates who trusted their feelings made better predictions than people with less emotional confidence.
A central decision faced by firms is whether to make intermediate components internally or to buy them from specialized producers. We argue that firms producing products for which rapid technological change is characteristic will benefit from outsourcing to avoid the risk of not recouping their sunk cost investments when new production technologies appear. This risk is exacerbated when firms produce for low volume internal use, and is mitigated for those firms which sell to larger markets.
A central decision faced by firms is whether to make intermediate components internally or to buy them from specialized producers. We argue that firms producing products for which rapid technological change is characteristic will benefit from outsourcing to avoid the risk of not recouping their sunk cost investments when new production technologies appear. This risk is exacerbated when firms produce for low volume internal use, and is mitigated for those firms which sell to larger markets.
Using panel data from a large hospital system, this paper presents estimates of the productivity effects of human capital in a team production environment. Proxying nurses' general human capital by education and their unit-specific human capital by experience on the nursing unit, we find that greater amounts of both types of human capital significantly improve patient outcomes.
This paper finds statistically and economically significant out-of-sample portfolio benefits for an investor who uses models of return predictability when forming optimal portfolios. The key is that investors must incorporate an ensemble of important features into their optimal portfolio problem, including time-varying volatility, and time-varying expected returns driven by improved predictors such as measures of yield that include share repurchase and issuance in addition to cash payouts. Moreover, investors need to account for estimation risk when forming optimal portfolios.
This paper focuses on add-on sales to determine both their value per se and their value as a reflexive measure of brand equity. Specifically, this paper examines the "accessory premium" for automobiles, i.e., accessories installed by dealers at the time of sale. Using J.D. Power Data, the authors find that higher add-on accessory sales accrue to higher equity brands which make accessory sales a potentially useful measure of brand equity (J. Marketing 67: 1?17, 2003). In addition, the authors examine how the revenue premium metric varies by age cohort.
The regulation of bank capital as a means of smoothing the credit cycle is a central element of forthcoming macro-prudential regimes internationally. For such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply of credit it must be the case that: (i) changes in capital requirements affect loan supply by regulated banks, and (ii) unregulated substitute sources of credit are unable to offset changes in credit supply by affected banks. This paper examines micro evidence—lacking to date—on both questions, using a unique data set.
Marketing variables that are included in consumer discrete choice models are often endogenous. Extant treatments using likelihood-based estimators impose parametric distributional assumptions, such as normality, on the source of endogeneity. These assumptions are restrictive because misspecified distributions have an impact on parameter estimates and associated elasticities. The normality assumption for endogeneity can be inconsistent with some marginal cost specifications given a price-setting process, although they are consistent with other specifications.
We propose a tractable, data-driven demand estimation procedure based on the use of maximum entropy (ME) distributions, and apply it to a stochastic capacity control problem motivated from airline revenue management. Specifically, we study the two fare-class "Littlewood" problem in a setting where the firm has access to only potentially censored sales observations. We propose a heuristic that iteratively fits an ME distribution to all observed sales data, and in each iteration selects a protection level based on the estimated distribution.
Maintaining auditor independence is vital to the auditing profession. This article argues that the auditor-client relationship exhibits special traits that make maintaining auditor independence easier than in other accountant-client relationships. In particular, the auditor-client relationship satisfies a one-sided separability condition, as the auditor is not involved in the structuring of transactions (unlike other accountants).
We study the optimal composition of corporate boards. Directors can be either monitoring or advisory types. Monitoring constrains the empire-building tendency of chief executive officers (CEOs). If shareholders control the board nomination process, a non-monotonic relation ensues between agency problems and board composition. To preempt CEO entrenchment, shareholders may assemble an adviser-heavy board. If a powerful CEO influences the nomination process, this may result in a more monitor-heavy board.
Substitution decisions have been examined from a variety of perspectives. The economics literature measures cross-price elasticity, operations research models optimal assortments, the psychology literature studies goals in conflict, and marketing research has examined substitution-in-use, brand switching, stockouts, and self-control. We integrate these perspectives into a common framework for understanding consumer substitution decisions; their specific drivers (availability of new alternatives, internal vs.
We examine changes in banks' market-to-book ratios over the last decade, focusing on the dramatic and persistent declines witnessed during the financial crisis. The extent of the decline and its persistence cannot be explained by the delayed recognition of losses on existing financial instruments. Rather, it is declines in the values of intangibles — including customer relationships and other intangibles related to business opportunities — along with unrecognized contingent obligations that account for most of the persistent decline in market-to-book ratios.
We examine changes in banks' market-to-book ratios over the last decade, focusing on the dramatic and persistent declines witnessed during the financial crisis. The extent of the decline and its persistence cannot be explained by the delayed recognition of losses on existing financial instruments. Rather, it is declines in the values of intangibles — including customer relationships and other intangibles related to business opportunities — along with unrecognized contingent obligations that account for most of the persistent decline in market-to-book ratios.
Many factors introduce the prospect of changes for the demand environment that a firm faces, with the specifics of such changes not necessarily known in advance. If and when realized, such changes affect the delicate balance between demand and supply and thus should be anticipated to the extent possible. We study the dynamic pricing problem of a retailer facing the prospect of a change in the demand function during a finite selling season with no inventory replenishment opportunity.
Despite the importance of self-awareness for managerial success, many organizational members hold overly optimistic views of their expertise and performance — a phenomenon particularly prevalent among those least skilled in a given domain. We examined whether this same pattern extends to appraisals of emotional intelligence (EI), a critical managerial competency. We also examined why this overoptimism tends to survive explicit feedback about performance. Across 3 studies involving professional students, we found that the least skilled had limited insight into deficits in their performance.
The door is the boundary between the foreign and domestic worlds in the case of an ordinary dwelling, between the profane and sacred worlds in the case of a temple. Therefore to cross the threshold is to unite oneself with a new world (van Gennep 1960: 20).
What kinds of credit substitution, if any, occur when changes to banks' minimum capital requirements induce them to change their willingness to supply credit? The question is of first-order importance given the emergence of "macro-prudential" policy regimes in the wake of the global financial crisis, under which regulatory tools — in particular, minimum capital ratio requirements for banks — will be employed to control the supply of bank credit as part of the effort to improve the resilience of the financial system.
We propose an approach for using individual-level data on social interactions (e.g., number of recommendations received by consumers, number of recommendations given by adopters, number of social ties) to improve the aggregate penetration forecasts made by extant diffusion models. We capture social interactions through an individual-level hazard rate in such a way that the resulting aggregate penetration process is available in closed form and nests extant diffusion models.
The seminal work by Grossmann and Hart (1986) made the study of firm boundaries susceptible to formal economic analysis, and illuminated an important role for markets in providing incentives. In this essay, I discuss some new directions that the literature has taken since. As a central challenge, I identify the need to provide a formal theory of the firm in which managerial direction and bureaucratic decision-making play a key role. Merging a number of existing incomplete contracting models, I propose two approaches with very different contracting assumptions.
This special section is the result of an effort by several scholars to move marketing academic research toward greater practical relevance. This initiative, called Theory Practice in Marketing (TPM), started with a conference at Columbia Business School in 2011, and the five papers published in this special section were presented at the second TPM conference held at Harvard Business School in 2012.
This special section is the result of an effort by several scholars to move marketing academic research toward greater practical relevance. This initiative, called Theory Practice in Marketing (TPM), started with a conference at Columbia Business School in 2011, and the five papers published in this special section were presented at the second TPM conference held at Harvard Business School in 2012.
The case describes the launch of a social media platform by the largest container shipping company in the world. Students will have the opportunity to thoroughly evaluate the campaign, which by observable criteria, has done extremely well. The case provides details on the various platforms used, the nature of content provided on each, and the associated budgets (including headcount). The budget figures are particularly interesting because they permit a rich discussion around the social media program's ROI.
Aggregation, and minimizing associated information loss, is a pervasive theme in accounting. In contrast, this paper highlights some potential benefits of aggregation, using simple examples to illustrate ideas from a number of recent papers in a parsimonious manner. Aggregation rules can improve decision making because of their ability to convey appropriate information and because such rules may permit offsetting errors. Turning to control problems, aggregation has merit in the provision of both explicit and implicit incentives.
Do people know when they are seen as pressing too hard, yielding too readily, or having the right touch? And does awareness matter? We examined these questions in four studies. Study 1 used dyadic negotiations to reveal a modest link between targets' self-views and counterparts' views of targets' assertiveness, showing that those seen as under- and over-assertive were likely to see themselves as appropriately assertive.
This research examines how consumers choose retailers when they are uncertain about store prices prior to shopping. Simulating everyday choice, participants made successive retailer choices where on each occasion they chose a retailer and only then learned product prices. The results of a series of studies demonstrated that participants were more likely to choose a retailer that offered an everyday low pricing strategy (EDLP) or that offered frequent small discounts over a retailer that offered infrequent large discounts.
In this study of the impact of protests against Walmart (a first entrant) on Target (a second entrant) from 1998 to 2008 in U.S. geographic markets, we develop and test a theory of information spillovers from protests against corporations proposing to enter a new market. We argue that the number of protests directed against a first entrant is a noisy signal for the second entrant because such protests are likely to be dominated by protest-prone activists and so do not reflect the sentiments of the community.
If individuals buy a Snickers bar and subsequently see their favorite basketball team begin to play better, they might attribute this improved performance to their purchase decision. Even as consumers acknowledge that this type of control is irrational, we demonstrate that they are willing to superstitiously alter their purchase behavior (by choosing a less-preferred option) in hopes of helping their favorite team.
Consumer psychology faces serious issues of internal and external relevance. Most of these issues originate in seven fundamental problems with the way consumer psychologists plan and conduct their research that could be called the seven sins of consumer psychology.
Markets for information products exhibit varying degrees of competition on both the supply and the demand side. This paper studies the potential complementarity of information products, equilibrium information buying behaviors and information price setting in such markets. Our game-theoretic model consists of two information providers selling imperfect information to two competing clients and allows for different information quality levels as well as varying degrees of client competition.
We posit that compared to the cognitive system, the affective system of judgment and decision making is relatively more engaged in the present. Specifically, we hypothesize that even if their accessibility is held constant, affective feelings are weighted more heavily in consumer judgments and decisions set in the present than in equivalent judgments and decisions set in the future or in the past.
Systemic risk is an issue of great concern in modern financial markets as well as, more broadly, in the management of complex systems. We propose an axiomatic framework for systemic risk. Our framework allows for an independent specification of (1) a functional of the cross-sectional profile of outcomes across agents in the system in a single scenario of nature, and (2) a functional of the profile of aggregated outcomes across scenarios of nature.
We consider a repeated newsvendor problem in which the decision-maker (DM) does not have access to the underlying distribution of discrete demand. We analyze three informational settings: i) the DM observes realized demand in each period; ii) the DM only observes realized sales; and iii) the DM observes realized sales but also a lost sales indicator that records whether demand was censored or not. We analyze the implications of censoring on performance and key characteristics that effective policies should possess.
The current research examines the extent to which visual perception is distorted by one's experience of power. Specifically, does power distort impressions of another person's physical size? Two experiments found that participants induced to feel powerful through episodic primes (Study 1) and legitimate leadership role manipulations (Study 2) systematically underestimated the size of a target, and participants induced to feel powerless systematically overestimated the size of the target. These results emerged whether the target person was in a photograph or face-to-face.
The current research examines the extent to which visual perception is distorted by one's experience of power. Specifically, does power distort impressions of another person's physical size? Two experiments found that participants induced to feel powerful through episodic primes (Study 1) and legitimate leadership role manipulations (Study 2) systematically underestimated the size of a target, and participants induced to feel powerless systematically overestimated the size of the target. These results emerged whether the target person was in a photograph or face-to-face.